Other thoughts that I should have considered?
Hey all, I was hoping someone could shed some light on a hand in a 1-2 NLHE cash game. I play this table a lot due to the tremendous amount of dead money on the weekends. I was disgusted after this hand so I just left before I acted like a fool. I am wondering if I should have thought of other things during this hand in order not to of lost couple hundred dollars. Here goes.
I am in the BB with Kd Kh. UTG raises to $4 then it folds to the button (villain) who calls. it folds to me. I make it $12, UTG calls, BTN calls. Flop is 8d 2d 6h. I bet $25 into a $36 pot. UTG folds, BTN Calls. Turn card is 5c. I bet $70 into an $86 pot. BTN shoves, I have about $70 behind. I call. Villain shows 7c 4c.
After the flop the 7c 4c has a little less than 20% to hit his 5. Me betting $25 into $36 gave him a little less than 2 and a half to one odds
. If you account for implied odds his $25 call could get him $140 is about 5 to 1. But even with the correct implied odds to call, why would he just call pre flop? I mean 4c 7c is not a calling hand let alone a 3 bet call. And he could not be thinking he was trapping with that hand pre flop let alone after he only had 4 outs to win post flop.
Here is my thought process. My $12 raise and UTG calling, I'm thinking he has either pocket pair of deuces through 8's Ax suited, maybe suited connectors such as 9 10 - 10 J - J Q - maybe KJ or KQ. He min raised pre then called $8 more so I can't give him credit for any high pocket pair.
I give the same range to the BTN, but giving him credit for pocket pair up to 10's or maybe Jacks. I cant put him on Q's or A's because he would have raised pre flop.
When the flop comes and I bet $25 and UTG folds, and BTN calls I think that if the BTN hit a set of 8's 6's or 2's he would have raised my $25. I don't think he has 2 pair because he should not have called a 3 bet pre flop with 8 6 - 8 2 - or 6 2. I do think that he could have diamonds because he just called and didn't raise my $25 bet. So my adjusted range for villain is Ax diamonds with a strong possibility for him to have Ad2d Ad6 Ad8. But 9d 10d and 10d Jd or Qd Jd are possibilities. I don't put him on pocket pairs lower than Jacks anymore because I don't see how he could have called the $25 with 4 4 thru 10 10 or the pre flop raise with 2 2 thru 9 9. Plus he has to be trying to put me on a hand too, so with my pre flop raise I guess he should think that have a range of any pair to high suited connectors or AK thru A10. With my $25 bet he should adjust his range for me to diamonds or a set of 8's maybe 6's and that tells
me his $25 call after the flop could just be a float in case another diamond hits, and he has the diamonds.
When the turn comes a 5c, I feel it's a blank based on the range I've assigned him, so I bet $70 and that should tell him I have either AA-10 or 88 possibly or even 55, in which case he has me beat, but he should even think that Ax of diamonds or maybe Kx of diamonds is still a possibility and if so, his shove here tells me he could be attempting to protect his hand rather than betting for value. So I adjust my range for him again to A8, A6, A5, or Ax of diamonds. But he should know that with only $70 behind, I am going to call his shove, so even though he turned the straight, he is still susceptible to lose if in fact I have diamonds. So I thought why would he shove; the only thing I could think of was to try to get me to fold which made my float theory make sense to me. That play seems to me like he is trying to protect a straight from a river diamond too, but I wasn't sure why he would put me on a diamond draw, the only reason that play makes sense is to get me off a flush draw because he already had the straight. I thought of the only possible straights with that board would be 4 7 or 7 9. In my thought process I would have never thought he would play 7 4 or 7 9, and even if he did, why would he chase for the only card that gets him there. A 5 only lets him win. And if he was on a diamond draw, why raise my turn bet? Why not just call, and if he hits it then he could possibly stack me, but if his draw missed he would have lost the minimum. Why risk me calling his raise if he was the one on a diamond draw? So the only thing that made sense was a straight, but I thought there is no way he is playing 4 7 or 7 9, it would be too risky; so I called only to see that in fact he did play those trash cards to chase for a five.
Is my rationale off?
Any insight is appreciated.