Opinions About My Win/Loss Rate

I'm looking for your opinions of my recent win/loss rate. I feel like I'm really getting my ass kicked too often and wonder if my losses indicate it might be time to stop playing. I've been playing once or twice per week for four years and this year has just been really difficult.

Tracking Dates: June 9th - October 21
Games: 1/2 & 3/6 NL Cash
# Sessions Played: 33
Winning Sessions: 11 ($3,323)
Losing Sessions: 22 ($5,095)
Negative Balance: -$1,772

I usually just go with enough for one max buy-in ($200) but sometimes two.

Thanks for your feedback.

is this live?

yes

Stick to 1/2 until you have long term winning results and how many hours played? Either way it is a small sample size.

oddly, the times I play 3/6 (and 2/3) are when I usually win or break even. Maybe because I play more cautiously and tight. Thanks for your reply.

You should be prepared for 4 or 5 BI. If you are limited to 1 or 2, you are eliminated some of your big pot plays from your tool kit.

People will generally chase more at 1/2. Get your value hands in more aggressively, bluff less. Brace yourself for greater variance.

3/6 you're going to get better players that know how to find a fold. Figure out who the fish are at the table and try to play against them - no need to fight the regs. But in general, you can expect people to be more dynamic thinkers, and if you are also a dynamic thinker, that *generally* explains why you are closer to break even at that table.

Is this shorthanded or full ring?

Weisssound said:

You should be prepared for 4 or 5 BI. If you are limited to 1 or 2, you are eliminated some of your big pot plays from your tool kit.

People will generally chase more at 1/2. Get your value hands in more aggressively, bluff less. Brace yourself for greater variance.

3/6 you're going to get better players that know how to find a fold. Figure out who the fish are at the table and try to play against them - no need to fight the regs. But in general, you can expect people to be more dynamic thinkers, and if you are also a dynamic thinker, that *generally* explains why you are closer to break even at that table.

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I don't know if I agree about 4 or 5 buy-ins.


I rarely get in for more than 2 buy-ins. This is tailored for me in particular though. I just have never been able to play that we'll being stuck 2 buy-ins and in for a 3rd buy-in. Sometimes though, if I feel up to it, I will buy in again.


But I think for the OP's sake, maybe flushing 4 or 5 buy-ins a session might not be a great idea. This would be ideal if he has already proven himself to be a winning player. OP is wondering if he should continue on, and what he should do.


I suggest a 2 buy-in stop loss. But first and foremost, I suggest that the OP post some hands to review here. It should be determined where he is leaking chips, what he can do to improve, etc.



Post some hands OP. Let's discuss your game plan and your current skill level.

Thanks everyone for your feedback.
Most games are full table (9 or 10 players).
I feel that my biggest leak at these low stakes games is i play too sneaky, always trying to trap. For instance...

in the BB I woke up with pockets Queens. Three players limped. Seat 6 raised to $15. I called. Seat 4 called also and everyone else folded.

The flop game K/10/4.

I checked and seat 4 bet half the pot. Seat 6 called. I called. Brick on the turn. Seat 4 put me all in. Seat 6 folded. I called the all in bet. He flipped over king-ten. My queens lost to his two pair.

That's a typical situation where i fell in love with my queens and didn't bother to raise pre-flop. I was hoping to trap.

dirkf said:

Thanks everyone for your feedback.
Most games are full table (9 or 10 players).
I feel that my biggest leak at these low stakes games is i play too sneaky, always trying to trap. For instance...

in the BB I woke up with pockets Queens. Three players limped. Seat 6 raised to $15. I called. Seat 4 called also and everyone else folded.

The flop game K/10/4.

I checked and seat 4 bet half the pot. Seat 6 called. I called. Brick on the turn. Seat 4 put me all in. Seat 6 folded. I called the all in bet. He flipped over king-ten. My queens lost to his two pair.

That's a typical situation where i fell in love with my queens and didn't bother to raise pre-flop. I was hoping to trap.

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While trying to trap is not horrible, it should be reserved for certain situations. For example, loose aggressive opponents, your image, etc.

However, if you see a flop with an under-repped hand like QQ on K-10-4, you must make wise decisions. Abandon the hand to strong action. You have a weak one pair hand. That's all. Many novice players simply drastically over-value big pocket pairs. If you can learn this lesson, and play your big pairs accordingly, you will ultimately save $$$.

Money saved is money earned.

Just remember, post flop everything changes. A strong preflop hand may be nothing postflop.



Don't try to be sneaky. Your opponents are going to be mostly knuckle draggers (droolers). Simple ABC is enough to destroy them.

Id say bring 2-3 buy ins to every game. Also stick to 1-2 right now until you can build a higher roll to move up.

i think we need more information, like live/online/6max or 9max/ BB deep?

A few things:

• Most likely a really small sample size. You didn't specify the number of hours (unless I missed it somewhere), but if you're only bringing 1 BI sometimes you probably aren't getting a ton of volume. Even if every session was 8 hrs that's still only 250 hours, which is nothing.
• Bring more than 1 BI. You shouldn't play short stacked and should be topping up. If you bring 1 BI and lose a pot early, you're playing short the rest of the time.
• Stick to 1-2.

And perhaps the most uncomfortable point (but most important):

You're not a winning player. I obviously don't know you, but I think it is safe to assume based on some of the things in this thread that you're not a winning player. I'm not trying to insult you. I just think it's extremely important for you to be aware of this. Becoming a winning player, even at the softest stakes, is difficult and takes awhile. It would be beneficial if you stopped dwelling on your stats and focused on in-game decision making. You probably won't ever know your true win rate at 1/2 anyways. It takes well over a thousand hours before you get a somewhat decent sample size, and by then you should be a dramatically different player than when you first started.

Log your sessions, tuck your stats away, and spend a ton of time improving your game away from the table.

Mr Sandbag said:

A few things:

• Most likely a really small sample size. You didn't specify the number of hours (unless I missed it somewhere), but if you're only bringing 1 BI sometimes you probably aren't getting a ton of volume. Even if every session was 8 hrs that's still only 250 hours, which is nothing.
• Bring more than 1 BI. You shouldn't play short stacked and should be topping up. If you bring 1 BI and lose a pot early, you're playing short the rest of the time.
• Stick to 1-2.

And perhaps the most uncomfortable point (but most important):

You're not a winning player. I obviously don't know you, but I think it is safe to assume based on some of the things in this thread that you're not a winning player. I'm not trying to insult you. I just think it's extremely important for you to be aware of this. Becoming a winning player, even at the softest stakes, is difficult and takes awhile. It would be beneficial if you stopped dwelling on your stats and focused on in-game decision making. You probably won't ever know your true win rate at 1/2 anyways. It takes well over a thousand hours before you get a somewhat decent sample size, and by then you should be a dramatically different player than when you first started.

Log your sessions, tuck your stats away, and spend a ton of time improving your game away from the table.

Click to expand...

re-read this because it's good. Stick with it and you'll get better. Subscribe some live threads, sand/scourrge/mine/beanface might have one? Either way, were all playing live from 1-2 to 5-10, so it could be helpful

Mr Sandbag said:

A few things:

• Most likely a really small sample size. You didn't specify the number of hours (unless I missed it somewhere), but if you're only bringing 1 BI sometimes you probably aren't getting a ton of volume. Even if every session was 8 hrs that's still only 250 hours, which is nothing.
• Bring more than 1 BI. You shouldn't play short stacked and should be topping up. If you bring 1 BI and lose a pot early, you're playing short the rest of the time.
• Stick to 1-2.

And perhaps the most uncomfortable point (but most important):

You're not a winning player. I obviously don't know you, but I think it is safe to assume based on some of the things in this thread that you're not a winning player. I'm not trying to insult you. I just think it's extremely important for you to be aware of this. Becoming a winning player, even at the softest stakes, is difficult and takes awhile. It would be beneficial if you stopped dwelling on your stats and focused on in-game decision making. You probably won't ever know your true win rate at 1/2 anyways. It takes well over a thousand hours before you get a somewhat decent sample size, and by then you should be a dramatically different player than when you first started.

Log your sessions, tuck your stats away, and spend a ton of time improving your game away from the table.

Click to expand...

Great post Sandbag.

dirkf said:

oddly, the times I play 3/6 (and 2/3) are when I usually win or break even. Maybe because I play more cautiously and tight. Thanks for your reply.

Click to expand...

Playing for larger amounts clearly makes you play tighter so less variance. At any rate its a small sample to conclude weather or not you're a losing player. In my experience 33 sesions and you're down 2k playin 1/2-3/6 is nothing. GL

respect on tables

I don't know if I agree about 4 or 5 buy-ins.

3-4 BUY-ins, 5 maxx

Hey bud I suggest you read 'easy game' and 'theory of poker'.
The queens hand at 200NL is played very passively. There is dead money in that pot and you need to go after it with hands that have value. If this joker wants to raise K10 and you have position on him you need to 3bet him w QQ. You don't 3bet everyone because live can often be tigher 3bet/4betting.

Ask yourself, what hands do I actually beat with my QQ? Are there any draws that he would be agrressive with? What hand is he representing and how oftern does this guy bluff? As played, calling one street on the flop w QQ here is fine.
But once he fires the turn, he's betting because he thinks he has the best hand. He's a fish because he cant beat any KJ+ hands and he's still firing away.
To me I like flatting in these spots with AK to trap sometimes in position so when you hit your A or K you always have top kicker and can let these fish hang themselves w hands like K10, KJ.

Anyway read those books and get a better understanding of poker theory....it will increase your win rate dramatically.

At 1/2 my advice:
-play as much in position as possible. See flops cheaply with small pairs and set mine.
-try and see flops with suited connectors but remember that if a guy onky has 50 big blinds in front then you arent priced in to call w these hands.
-bet for value.
-when its checked to you, bet your draws. If they call you've got outs and you have control of the hand. You can slow down or apply more pressure on the turn if you think you have fold equity. If you don't know what fold equity is you need to learn more about poker.
-play hands against bad players as much as possible - especially in position.

Bet your made hands for value as much as you can and steal as many small pots in position as you can.