Opinion on this statement

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MstrBlast3r

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I pulled this statement out of a comment on a vlog today.

First the hand scenario:
Hero has 10 10
Villian has K7s
Hero flops a set with a flush draw on the board. Hero goes all in and is called villain makes a flush on the river.


Here is the commenter's statement:
Best advice I can give you..never over commit any amount of chips on the flop ever!! Don't care if you have top set in a huge pot..wait until the turn..people are more likely to fold with 1 card to come than 2..you might still not get a fold on the turn..but it is way more likely..just sayin can add up to a lot at the end of a month playing..GL


someone commented bad advice


the commenter responded:
Na..if your ahead and he has flush draw or open ended you still lose that pot 1 in 3 times on avg....you can reevaluate on turn depending on which card hits to navigate the open ended or flush draw does not hit odds are down to about 18%..then either bet big and take it down(usually)..or bet normal size 40 to 50 percent pot and if you get called you have to fold river if your hand does not hold and not just call it off..remember at 1/2 and 1/3 people don't bluff enough to not give them credit for a hand...it's up to you as the player to pay attention to who is capable and not capable ofmaking big bluff or over calling etc..if your in a game where every1 is mixing it up and hard to get a read on then you should probably get up..You most likely have no edge in that game..


I personally think the commenter's thinking is way off on this:
Let's use the lose 1 in 3 when your opponent is on a draw and you get all in on the flop and not argue if it is really 1 in 3. In the commenter's scenario using say effective stacks of $500 for easy math sake, you are going to win $500 2 times ($1000) and lose $500 1 time, effectively winning $500 when this scenario happens. Now let's take the angle and check the flop and turn and don't get our money in until the river.(Yes I know commenter included a possible bet on the turn but I wanted the scenario to be slightly less complicated to show the concept) If your opponent does not make their flush they are almost never calling meaning you are only getting called if you are losing. So when the flush or straight from the example misses you get no additional $, but you lose money when the opponent makes a hand. In addition, you are open to more bluffs ... are you folding to all cards that complete your opponent's hand? So now on the river 2 out of 3 times, you win essentially $0 and lose $500 1 time making your net loss -$500 instead of +$500 by getting all in on the flop.


I know this is a way oversimplified example of how this works and there is a lot of math involved to show how this really works but do we all agree that this is the general concept or is the way I am looking at this incorrect?
 
Ahoy

Ahoy

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Well the comment has some merit but it just depends what fold equity does the all in create. I mean, somebody may fold with 2 cards to come, and somebody will not fold even when only 1 cards has to come. The fold equity cant be exactly calculated so its hard to estimate I guess. When you push it on flop you make him risk a lot and he has only a draw and you are ahead. But when the draw hits on turn you may or may not fold... it would be very exploitable to fold whenever any draw hits. Hard to say. Anyways, you are ahead on the flop so if you push and he calls its +EV long term.

Edit:
Actually after re thinking, its bad advice. This way you could always wait for the river to come, and you would extract no value if the draw missed ( he would never call your bet with a missed draw and thus 0 equity). You have to make him pay for the cards to come. Make the bet so big that he is pot committed on the turn, and if the turn bricks just shove. If you always let him take cheap turns and rivers you will have no value in that and you will either make nothing, or just lose what you put in.
 
PHX

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If I am deep enough I do this a lot I don't jam flop I wait on turn. I make a bet on flop to set up turn jam. From my experience because this game has become odds driven players are more likely folding their draws on turn than on flop. Unless close close to a bubble or final table or pay jump we got to try and get it in before river on this hand beacuse we will gain little value (if villian has Top pair 2 pair) or no value on river.
 
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MrSamsa

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You don't want any fold equity at all when you have top set. These are the things you are looking to happen. You will get drawn out on in poker it happens their isn't a fool proof way of defending against it.

His reply was a results orientated comment. Say instead of jamming he bets big gets called and does so again on the turn again getting called. The diamond comes in on the river then what? Is he really going to fold top set all that often. It ends up the same no matter what you do really.
 
8bod8

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I played a very similar hand earlier this week (set), where the vilain flopped top pair and made a flush on the river.
I lost all chips.
Would it be better to play much more slowly with a set against a potential flush and thus fold when the villain shoves? or will this lead to a guaranteed chip bleed, without a chance of decent result?
 
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ucdengboss

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Bad advice and as stated it is a results based comment. Hero wins 2 of 3 times. The commenter sounds like they want a fold, but you dont.... you want as much money in the pot as the villain is willing to put in... if that's an all in the all the better. If they draw out then so be it.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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This situation has a lot to do with stack depth and stakes. If this was a 1/2 table for instance with a 200-300 buy-in. I would get it in against this player as a 3-1 favorite EVERY time.

That being said, when you are player deeper against better players, for instance an uncapped 5-10 game where you are sitting 2k effective, its very unwise to put your entire stack on the line when you are ONLY getting called by better hands. At higher stakes nobody is going to stack off as a 1-3 underdog, you would only get called by better hands. People here prefer to bet their hands for value or check for deception, and evaluate on the turn and maybe give their opponents a chance to bluff at the pot.


To be clear, you never WANT a fold when you are holding the best hand. What you WANT is your opponent to put in money, with a worse hand than yours. Part of being a good player is identifying which cards are good for him and bad for you, and being able to fold when its not profitable to continue. [And being able to call when its likely he turns his hand into a bluff.]


In the case where you are sure your opponent is on the a flush draw, the ideal situation is to bet enough to charge him the max for his draw, WITHOUT getting him to fold.
 
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IceQueenAce

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Does the situation change depending on the type of game?
I mean, is the commentators comment more valid in a mtt than a cash game for instance?
 
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mikeisthebestever

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Does the situation change depending on the type of game?
I mean, is the commentators comment more valid in a mtt than a cash game for instance?

In a tourney shoving on the flop has more merit because of stack depth and the value of antes and blinds in the later stages
 
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