M
MstrBlast3r
Rock Star
Silver Level
I pulled this statement out of a comment on a vlog today.
First the hand scenario:
Hero has 10 10
Villian has K7s
Hero flops a set with a flush draw on the board. Hero goes all in and is called villain makes a flush on the river.
Here is the commenter's statement:
Best advice I can give you..never over commit any amount of chips on the flop ever!! Don't care if you have top set in a huge pot..wait until the turn..people are more likely to fold with 1 card to come than 2..you might still not get a fold on the turn..but it is way more likely..just sayin can add up to a lot at the end of a month playing..GL
someone commented bad advice
the commenter responded:
Na..if your ahead and he has flush draw or open ended you still lose that pot 1 in 3 times on avg....you can reevaluate on turn depending on which card hits to navigate the open ended or flush draw does not hit odds are down to about 18%..then either bet big and take it down(usually)..or bet normal size 40 to 50 percent pot and if you get called you have to fold river if your hand does not hold and not just call it off..remember at 1/2 and 1/3 people don't bluff enough to not give them credit for a hand...it's up to you as the player to pay attention to who is capable and not capable ofmaking big bluff or over calling etc..if your in a game where every1 is mixing it up and hard to get a read on then you should probably get up..You most likely have no edge in that game..
I personally think the commenter's thinking is way off on this:
Let's use the lose 1 in 3 when your opponent is on a draw and you get all in on the flop and not argue if it is really 1 in 3. In the commenter's scenario using say effective stacks of $500 for easy math sake, you are going to win $500 2 times ($1000) and lose $500 1 time, effectively winning $500 when this scenario happens. Now let's take the angle and check the flop and turn and don't get our money in until the river.(Yes I know commenter included a possible bet on the turn but I wanted the scenario to be slightly less complicated to show the concept) If your opponent does not make their flush they are almost never calling meaning you are only getting called if you are losing. So when the flush or straight from the example misses you get no additional $, but you lose money when the opponent makes a hand. In addition, you are open to more bluffs ... are you folding to all cards that complete your opponent's hand? So now on the river 2 out of 3 times, you win essentially $0 and lose $500 1 time making your net loss -$500 instead of +$500 by getting all in on the flop.
I know this is a way oversimplified example of how this works and there is a lot of math involved to show how this really works but do we all agree that this is the general concept or is the way I am looking at this incorrect?
First the hand scenario:
Hero has 10 10
Villian has K7s
Hero flops a set with a flush draw on the board. Hero goes all in and is called villain makes a flush on the river.
Here is the commenter's statement:
Best advice I can give you..never over commit any amount of chips on the flop ever!! Don't care if you have top set in a huge pot..wait until the turn..people are more likely to fold with 1 card to come than 2..you might still not get a fold on the turn..but it is way more likely..just sayin can add up to a lot at the end of a month playing..GL
someone commented bad advice
the commenter responded:
Na..if your ahead and he has flush draw or open ended you still lose that pot 1 in 3 times on avg....you can reevaluate on turn depending on which card hits to navigate the open ended or flush draw does not hit odds are down to about 18%..then either bet big and take it down(usually)..or bet normal size 40 to 50 percent pot and if you get called you have to fold river if your hand does not hold and not just call it off..remember at 1/2 and 1/3 people don't bluff enough to not give them credit for a hand...it's up to you as the player to pay attention to who is capable and not capable ofmaking big bluff or over calling etc..if your in a game where every1 is mixing it up and hard to get a read on then you should probably get up..You most likely have no edge in that game..
I personally think the commenter's thinking is way off on this:
Let's use the lose 1 in 3 when your opponent is on a draw and you get all in on the flop and not argue if it is really 1 in 3. In the commenter's scenario using say effective stacks of $500 for easy math sake, you are going to win $500 2 times ($1000) and lose $500 1 time, effectively winning $500 when this scenario happens. Now let's take the angle and check the flop and turn and don't get our money in until the river.(Yes I know commenter included a possible bet on the turn but I wanted the scenario to be slightly less complicated to show the concept) If your opponent does not make their flush they are almost never calling meaning you are only getting called if you are losing. So when the flush or straight from the example misses you get no additional $, but you lose money when the opponent makes a hand. In addition, you are open to more bluffs ... are you folding to all cards that complete your opponent's hand? So now on the river 2 out of 3 times, you win essentially $0 and lose $500 1 time making your net loss -$500 instead of +$500 by getting all in on the flop.
I know this is a way oversimplified example of how this works and there is a lot of math involved to show how this really works but do we all agree that this is the general concept or is the way I am looking at this incorrect?