Omaha Variance

camtheram13

camtheram13

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How much variance over the long term is there in Omaha?

I've recently come off a heater. I was beating the game easily. I did this with both good and bad hands. My good hands held up and my bad hands turned into good hands. I've now taken a swing...

I lost one $90 pot which I KNOW I shouldn't have been in and found myself completely on TILT and thinking about voiding my cash out. I then got burned for another $20 on Rush Omaha Hi going all-in pre-flop with an AAxx hand vs a 5678off hand. The guy flopped two pair.
 
cjatud2012

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ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
AA** 58.68% (350,917 wins, 2,319 ties)
5678 41.32% (246,764 wins, 2,319 ties)

As you can see, hand values run much closer in Omaha. So in all-in pre-flop situations, yes, you will experience much more variance with that style of play.

May want to check this one out: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/plugging-leaks-omaha-171254/ it's not a super thread, but it'll get you started of you have more questions about Omaha.
 
camtheram13

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cjatud2012 said:
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
AA** 58.68% (350,917 wins, 2,319 ties)
5678 41.32% (246,764 wins, 2,319 ties)

As you can see, hand values run much closer in Omaha. So in all-in pre-flop situations, yes, you will experience much more variance with that style of play.

May want to check this one out: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/plugging-leaks-omaha-171254/ it's not a super thread, but it'll get you started of you have more questions about Omaha.
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Wow! It's almost 60/40. I won't say the other player made a bad call but I wonder if he would do that in a high stakes game. BTW, I rarely play like that in Omaha Hi but he pushed so much in pre-flop I wanted to take the pot before we saw any cards.
 
cjatud2012

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Yeah, if you can get all the money in pre-flop with AAxx then go ahead and do it, or if you could get 1/3 or your stack in pre. This would usually mean raising, getting 3-bet, then 4-betting yourself, which will leave you with about a pot-sized bet should he flat for some weird reason. Otherwise, it may be wise to see what the flop brings first, because as you can see, the flop changes your equity tremendously. If you get ~1/10 in pre, then c-bet, you've put in 1/3 of your stack now, but you may be getting slammed.

That doesn't mean don't 3-bet AAxx, just don't go nuts with it.
 
vanquish

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very good mid/high stakes players have had 100+ buy-in downswings on a semi-regular basis, so yeah


its a pretty goddamn high variance game
 
camtheram13

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cjatud2012 said:
Yeah, if you can get all the money in pre-flop with AAxx then go ahead and do it, or if you could get 1/3 or your stack in pre. This would usually mean raising, getting 3-bet, then 4-betting yourself, which will leave you with about a pot-sized bet should he flat for some weird reason. Otherwise, it may be wise to see what the flop brings first, because as you can see, the flop changes your equity tremendously. If you get ~1/10 in pre, then c-bet, you've put in 1/3 of your stack now, but you may be getting slammed.

That doesn't mean don't 3-bet AAxx, just don't go nuts with it.
Click to expand...

I think one of the most fun parts of Omaha is when a AAxx limps and I make an open-ended str8 draw and flush draw and take his whole stack.

Thanks for the thread recommendation. Pretty good info. I know a lot of people stay away from AAAx or KKKx but these hands are fun to play.
 
cjatud2012

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AAAx/KKKx? I guess those are fun hands if you don't like money, since you can't use all three cards...
 
camtheram13

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cjatud2012 said:
AAAx/KKKx? I guess those are fun hands if you don't like money, since you can't use all three cards...
Click to expand...

Haha. I know you can't use all three but at least you know when that A or K falls that you have the nuts.
 
vanquish

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you'd still have the nuts if you had AAxx/KKxx
 
kmixer

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camtheram13 said:
Haha. I know you can't use all three but at least you know when that A or K falls that you have the nuts.
Click to expand...

Having AAAx or KKKx are very bad because the chances of making your set is now lower and because when one of these cards lands on the board it helps someone make a straight or a flush.

In a very loose game you might be able to play AAAK if you can get it all in pre. Otherwise stay far away from any hand that stars with three of a kind.

In H/L you can play AAA2 and Sometimes AAA3 depending on the betting and your position .
 
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