Omaha and math and strategy(pretty basic)...

Okay as bad as I am at math I noticed something important about omaha, and to keep from further hijacking a perfectly good brag, I'm bringing it here.

Rule of 4 and 2 only works heads up. Heads up ya get a great estimation of your current percentage to win. But at a full table you have to multiply by 2 and 1. It becomes the rule of 2 and 1. After messing around with the calculator and putting random cards in the unknown holes, I gotta say that it works pretty well.

Basically I knew my outs were inflated and had to really think hard(makes my hair hurt) to figure out why and how to work around it. Turning the rule of 4 and 2 into the rule of 2 and 1 is the best workaround I can come up with. Oh and how they were inflated is pretty simple. Ya know you're in "trouble" when your number of outs, outnumbers the cards left in the deck. It's a good sort of trouble to be in but still, trouble. 1/2 the cards pretty much equals 1/2 the outs.

You can adjust the math further with the fluctuation of table size, but then you end up working with decimals which can really slow you down. Per usual, your chances of winning once heads up(full table or not)improve, but you still have to account for the dealt cards. What I mean is, you can use the rule of 4 and 2 once heads up at a full table, and see where you probably are against that particular opponent, but cutting the rule in half really helps to keep your head on straight. A bad beat's not so bad once you realize you were a lot closer to 25% to win. You still had the better cards but your chances just weren't that great.

I've made some assumptions. I assumed that if you read all that, you even know what a good starting hand looks like. Bad assumption. The best way to figure out what starting hands are best is to use the Hutchison point system for omaha. There are tons of articles which list the best hands, but the point system shows you how the hands are best, and once you understand how and why, you just play better. I also assumed that you're good at following patterns and putting people on hands. I can't help with that. But it does help a lot.

Here's where I'm hoping some people who are really good at math will step in and tell me where I'm wrong so far.

Okay I figured out on my own one part where I was wrong. You don't have 1/2 the cards left in the deck. You actually have twice as many hole cards dealt. You actually end up with 1 card less than half as many left in the deck as you'd have left in the deck dealt to a full table in texas hold 'em. It's actually a little more grim than I figured before.

do you have adhd or am i an idiot?

what is it you are asking/telling us?

Hmm. Not sure that we have all properly understood the "Rule of 2". It works like this:-

There are 50 cards in the deck (actually 52, of course, but this is an approximation). Therefore, the chance that the next card dealt will be the particular one you seek is 1 in 50, or 2%. Therefore, your chance of drawing successfully is 2% multiplied by your number of outs. If there are two drawing rounds (streets) to come, then it is 2% multiplied by your number of outs multiplied by two (ie. 4 x outs).

Importantly, this holds good for all variations of the game which use a single standard deck. No adjustment is required for Omaha.

How can the math not change for Omaha?? I mean if I'm playing hold em and I'm on a flush draw the likley hood of someone else having a flush draw is lower than in Omaha because of the additional 2 cards. I'm not the best at knowing the math but I would think in holdem at a 9 player table there are 18 cards dealt to players the chance of 2 of them having 2 suited cards same suits as another player are less than if at a 8 player Omaha table where 32 cards are dealt to players. Or am I just an idiot LOL.

Grossberger said:

How can the math not change for Omaha??

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The calculation is the same for all standard variations, m8. Re-read my post above. I can`t think of a way to express it more clearly. You are calculating the chance that the next card off the top of the deck will be one of those you are seeking. It doesn`t matter how many cards are elsewhere. It is governed by the number of cards in a deck. The chance that the next card will be (say) the 6 of Diamonds (or any other card you care to name) is 2%.

The only respect in which Omaha differs is that, because there are more cards out and more possible hand combinations, you have to consider more carefully whether an out is a "clean" out or might also help an opponent, but that is a judgement call. It doesn`t affect the arithmetical principle.

Just remember that this is only an approximation that is not as reliable when there is more than one street to come, especially with a lot of outs.

pfb8888 said:

do you have adhd or am i an idiot?

what is it you are asking/telling us?

Click to expand...

I have to get to know you better to know for sure if you're an idiot. Based on that post I can almost guarantee you're a jerk. It's seriously wrong to mock disabilities. Why not go find a guy with glasses to punch in the face or a one legged dwarf to challenge to a kicking and jumping contest?

Anyway I made a mistake with exactly what pattern it was that I was spotting, and it still might not be a legit pattern.

What I was spotting was that if you multiply outs by 4 then divide by 2 you end up with a # that's pretty close to your % of winning by the river. If it's valid then I'll at least know the worst situations for getting all or the majority of my chips in.

Now I still need clarification. How can you have more outs than are left in the deck?

Egon Towst said:

Hmm. Not sure that we have all properly understood the "Rule of 2". It works like this:-

There are 50 cards in the deck (actually 52, of course, but this is an approximation). Therefore, the chance that the next card dealt will be the particular one you seek is 1 in 50, or 2%. Therefore, your chance of drawing successfully is 2% multiplied by your number of outs. If there are two drawing rounds (streets) to come, then it is 2% multiplied by your number of outs multiplied by two (ie. 4 x outs).

Importantly, this holds good for all variations of the game which use a single standard deck. No adjustment is required for Omaha.

Click to expand...

There is a slight adjustment needed for this rule in omaha. This being that instead of 50 unknown hole cards left there is 48.

N.D. said:

What I was spotting was that if you multiply outs by 4 then divide by 2 you end up with a # that's pretty close to your % of winning by the river.

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Are you sure thats what you mean? Surely thats just the same as multiplying the outs by 2.

4X/2 = 2X

tenbob said:

There is a slight adjustment needed for this rule in omaha. This being that instead of 50 unknown hole cards left there is 48.

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Quite true, m8, but it`s only an approximation. Since we don`t want to calculate in fractions of a percentage point, 2% is ok.

N.D. said:

I have to get to know you better to know for sure if you're an idiot. Based on that post I can almost guarantee you're a jerk. It's seriously wrong to mock disabilities. Why not go find a guy with glasses to punch in the face or a one legged dwarf to challenge to a kicking and jumping contest?

Anyway I made a mistake with exactly what pattern it was that I was spotting, and it still might not be a legit pattern.

What I was spotting was that if you multiply outs by 4 then divide by 2 you end up with a # that's pretty close to your % of winning by the river. If it's valid then I'll at least know the worst situations for getting all or the majority of my chips in.

Now I still need clarification. How can you have more outs than are left in the deck?

Click to expand...

sorry ....just trying to be funny
you cant have more outs than the number of cards left in the deck

i.e. omaha
2 hearts in your hand/4 cards up/2hearts on board/9 players
40 cards dealt.....your odds are not 9 hearts out of the last 12 cards
you dont know what cards others are holding so you have to go with the percentages...you see 8 cards ...your odds = 9 of 44(52-8) = 20.45%

the rule of 2 is a quik reference guide 9x2 18 %
9x4/2 =18%

i think running the numbers for omaha (hi/lo anyway) are too distracting because of the split pot scenarios...during play you probably need to be a feel player...and then when you come across a complex situation you can analyze it afterwards to see what you really should have done