Official Poker Razor Study thread

[Stu_Ungar]

This follows on from a thread about post flop play.

What I would like to do is to follow on from what ChuckTs was doing about a year ago with poker razor.


https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/stox-co...alyses-133725/

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/pokeraz...-loose-137844/

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/pokeraz...et-pot-136958/

I'd like to start by going back over what he did (as I think this will improve our own understanding) and then maybe take it a bit further.

To begin with I'd like this thread to be primarily concerned with c-betting and our villain's likely calling and or raising ranges to our c-bet.

I'd like to concentrate just on the flop to begin with because I think we should walk before we run.

As this thread is a poker razor thread.. you will need poker razor.

http://pokerazor.com/

Next of all I'd like to propose the rule, that whatever conclusions you draw must be demonstrated via poker stove. Otherwise it sort of defeats the purpose of the thread.

To begin with I would like to approach this in a scientific type of way.

So lets agree upon

1. Ranges for common types of villains. These will be our standard ranges, so lets all agree on them.

2. Common flops. These will be our standard flops. So if we are talking of say a 2 tone low flop then 8h 4h 2s, might be our standard 'low two tone flop'

Once we have agreed upon standard ranges for our villain types and a range of flops that give us a picture of how that villain performs on generic flops, then we can start plugging that info into poker razor and figuring out what it all means.

We can later digress from this, but to begin with I really do think the standardised villains and standard flops will really help.

Just remember the golden rule.. whatever you come up with must be demonstrated in Poker Razor.

Hopefully this should be an interesting project and one where we all improve our post flop play.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

So the first task is to define our standard villian ranges.

I think the best way would be to assign them firstly a name and their overall V$IP/PRF.

I.e. fish 72/4

and the break that range down into EP MP and LP.

however if anyone can think of a better way.. now is the time to voice it because its going to be a pain if we later decide we have to go back and do it all again because we seriously screwed up on the ranges!!!

 

[ChuckTs]

Starting out simple is good.

I think a good place to start is with cold calling ranges. Fish calls top %30/%20/%60/whatever, tag calls %7 suited connector/pair type range, tricky lag/tag plays similar %7 range, but flats monsters once in a while, etc etc.

Then maybe 3betting ranges etc

You don't have to be super-specific, just start out with rough 'loose' or 'tight' ranges, try polarized vs unpolarized, mixing in suited connectors and stuff, etc and seeing how they change based on flop textures.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

OK these are the cold calling ranges I would suggest for fishy players.

They have a raising range of 3% {JJ+, AK}

So essentially these are just slightly adjusted ranges with {JJ+ AK} removed.

Fish 10% {TT-66, AQ, AJs-A2s, KQs, QJs}

Fish 20% {TT-22, AQ-AT, A9s-A2s, KT+, K9s-K8s, QT+, Q9s, JT, J9s, T9s}

Fish 30% {TT-22, AQ-A2, KJ+, KTs-K2s, QJ, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s}

Fish 40% {TT-22, AQ-A2, K2+, QT+, JT, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s}

Fish 50% {TT-22, AQ-A2, K5+, K4s-K2s, QT+, Q9s-Q2s, JT, J9s-J2s, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s}

Fish 60% {TT-22, AQ-A2, K2+, QT+, Q9s-Q2s, JT, J9s-J2s, T9, T8s-T2s, 98, 97s-92s, 87, 86s-82s, 76, 75s-72s, 65, 64s-62s, 54, 53s-52s, 43, 42s, 32}

Fish 70% {TT-22, AQ-A2, K2+, Q2+, J5+, J4s-J2s, T9, T8s-T2s, 98, 97s-92s, 87, 86s-82s, 76, 75s-72s, 65, 64s-62s, 54, 53s-52s, 43, 42s, 32}

Fish 80% {TT-22, AQ-A2, K2+, Q2+, J2+, T7+, T6s-T2s, 97+, 96s-92s, 86+, 85s-82s, 75+, 74s-72s, 64+, 63s-62s, 53+, 52s, 42+, 32}

Have a look at those ranges, see if people agree they are a general representation of a player.

You can then copy and paste them into the Range Explorer of Poker Razor, and then save them, so you wont have to keep entering them.

Here is the fish 50% so that people can get an idea of what that physically looks like.



As you can see I have saved these on the right hand side of the window so I won't have to manually input them each time.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

So if people are happy with those ranges (its just one type of player) then we can look next to the standard flops.

We can profile other players later.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

OK here are some examples of standard flop types.

X high rainbow = {Xs 4d 7h}
i.e K high rainbow = {Ks 4d 7h}

X high wet {Xs Jh 9d}
i.e K high wet = {Ks Jh 9d}

X high two tone unconnected = {Xs Jh 7h}
X high two tone connected = {Ks Jh 9h}

Low dry = {Xs 7h 3c}
Low connected = {Xs 7h 6c}
Low Connected and suited = {Xs 7h 6h}

Monotone high = {Ks Js 9s}
Monotone low = {8s 5s 3s}
Monotone middle highly connected = {8s 6s 5s}


X with high paired {Xs Ts Th}
X with middle paired {Xs 7c 7d}
X with low paired {Xs 3c 3h}


Can anyone think of more?

all you do is simply put these into the flop box

 

[Jurn8]

looks like a good start stu!

 

[Stu_Ungar]

As an example.

The project unfolds like this:-

Take a range i.e. Fish 50% and a range i.e. X with middle paired {Xs 7c 7d}.

Lets let X = an Ace so the flop is As 7c 7d

We plug that info into Poker Razor and will get the following



So we can see here that our Villian pairs his Ace or better (i.e. trips) 22.1 % of the time.

This isn't all that surprising as he has a lot of Aces in his range.



He is holding a BD flush draw 36.1% of the time, but basically he either has a pair ace, trips or nothing. So we are good to c-bet this flop (100-36.1) = 63.9 % of the time.

A 1/2 pot c-bet must work at least 33% of the time to show a profit.

A 3/4 pot c-bet must work 42% of the time to show a profit.
So a c-bet here looks good.

If called there really isn't all that much in his range that he could have so we really don't want to get any more money into the pot. (He basically has the ace.. but it could well be a weak one)

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Ok well I think I have got the ball rolling and demonstrated how the whole process works.

Ill be putting quite a bit of time into this over the next couple of weeks and really hope that others get involved too.

 

[WurlyQ]

Good thread idea! I'll be sure to keep tabs on this thread.

 

[Mase31683]

This isn't mine, it's from a video series on cardrunners by Verneer. He classified players into a few styles from a pretty extensive database of $10nl to $50nl as follows:

Nit - VPIP 12/PFR 9
Tourist - VPIP 32/PFR 4.5
Bully - VPIP 36/PFR 30
Drunk - VPIP 61/PFR 29
TAG - VPIP 21/PFR 17

Not that I argue with your definition of a fish, but I'm not sure how useful that particular player type will be to break down. I don't encounter too many players that are playing that style, basically an extreme version of the tourist.

Using players from my database that fit these categories I've come up with some positional VPIP/PFR %'s for each archetype

So I went through my database, looking at players who had stats very close to the previously designated ones to get an idea what VPIP/PFR they had by position. Then I assigned a plausible range to those ranges with pokerstove.

TAG - 21/17
The TAG's ranges for VPIP v PFR are so close that I'm only including one range. 1% ~ an unsuited non-paired hand, so remove the weakest one of those when vpip > pfr.

UTG - 17/16
{22+, Any broadway except JTo}

MP - 19/19
{22+, Any 2 broadway, A9s, T9s}

CO - 28/27
{22+, Ax, Any 2 broadway, T9s}

Button - 42/42
{22+ Ax, Any 2 cards 9+, 54s+, 64s+ 85s+, 97o+, 76o+, K8s, Q8s}

NIT - 12/9
UTG - 8/4
Raise: {JJ+, AQ+}
Limp: {22-TT}

MP - 11/11
R: {22+, AJ+, KQ}
L: N/A

CO - 15/15
R: {22+, A8s+, ATo+, KQ, KJ, QJ}
L: N/A

Button - 27/27
R: {22+, Ax, Any broadway}
L: N/A

TOURIST - 32/4.5
UTG - 32/5
R: {TT+, AQo+, AJs+}
L: {22+, A6o+, Axs, 65s+, 75s+, Any two cards 9+/8+ if suited} - Raises

MP - 32/1
R: {KK+}
L: {Same as UTG} - Raises

CO - 35/5
R: {TT+, AQo+, AJs+}
L: {Same as UTG + A2o+} - R's

Button - 44/17
R: {22+, Any broadway}
L: {22+, Ax, Any two 9+/8+ suited, 32s+, 42s+, 74s+, 86o+, 76o+} - R's

BULLY - 36/30
UTG - 43/43
R: {22+, Ax, Any two 9+/8+ suited, 54s+, 64s+, 74s+, 86o+, 76o+}
L: N/A

MP - 34/34
R: {22+, Ax, 54s+, 64s+, Any two cards 9+/8+ if suited}
L: N/A

CO - 34/34
R: {Same as MP}
L: N/A

Button - 71/71 (This was a hard range to figure)
R: Everything except:
{23-2Qo, 36-3Qo, 47-4Qo, 58-5To, 69-6To, 26-2Ts, 37-3Ts, 48-4Ts, 59-5Ts, 6Ts}
L: N/A

DRUNK - 61/29
UTG - 48/23
R: {22+, Axs, A7o+, Any broadway}
L: {22+, Ax, Kxs, Any two 9+/8+ suited, 32s+, 42s+, 74s+, 86o+, 54o+} - Raises

MP - 73/27
R: {22+, Ax, Any broadway}
L: Everything except:
{23-2Qo, 36-3Jo, 47-4To, 58-5To, 69-6To, 26-2Ts, 37-3Ts, 48-4Ts, 59-5Ts, 6Ts} - Raises

CO - 72/36
R: {22+, Ax, 54s+, 64s+, Any two cards 9+/8+ if suited}
L: Everything except:
{23-2Qo, 36-3Qo, 47-4To, 58-5To, 69-6To, 26-2Ts, 37-3Ts, 48-4Ts, 59-5Ts, 6Ts} - Raises

Button - 65/24
R: {22+, Any two broadway, Axs, A6o+}
L: Everything except:
{23-2Qo, 34-3Qo, 45-4Qo, 56-5Qo, 32-92s, 43-93s, 84-94s, 95s} - Raises

Okay, my head is spinning now, going to bed

 

[Mase31683]

We can profile other players later.

Lol, I moved ahead.

 

[Mase31683]

Don't know if it's just that it's really late or something, but I can't figure out how to make this program work at all

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Don't know if it's just that it's really late or something, but I can't figure out how to make this program work at all

What are you having difficulty with? Ill try and talk you through it.

 

[Mase31683]

I open the program, and it brings up the main screen, which is just the table sitting there, and underneath the stuff with Root-Preflop-SB (SB highlighted green). I was trying out File -> New, but that didn't seem to lead to anything like what you were showing. I'm going to play with it a bit more today, see if I can think more clearly after sleep.

P.S. I absolutely love the idea of this thread. To look for ourselves into what flop textures are likely to elicit folds/calls from various opponents is definitely worth whatever time goes into it.

 

[Mase31683]

Okay, I found it. Apparently pokerazor changed it's setup. The Range Explorer is now located in Tools -> Range Exploration

Sweet! It's working great!

 

[Mase31683]

I've also had a few tweaks to the hand ranges I previously put on here. Nothing too major, but a few things I'm sure were simply due to not a large enough sample size. There were a few spots where someone was raising Ax in the cutoff, but then had a more narrow ace raising range on the button, which just doesn't make sense. I'd assume things like this were due to variance over a small sample size, so I'm trying to fix those bugs to have an overall picture that makes sense.

 

[Mase31683]

Starting out simple is good.

I think a good place to start is with cold calling ranges.
Then maybe 3betting ranges etc

Here's what I came up with for cold-calling and 3betting ranges.

NIT

3betting ~ 3.2% {JJ+, AK}
CCing ~ 4% {22+} - 3bets



Tourist

3betting ~ 2% {KK+, AK}
CCing ~ 20% {22+, Any broadway, 43s+ 53s+} - 3bets



Bully

3betting ~ 11% {88+, ATo+ A9s+, KTs+ QTs+, KQo}
CCing ~ 16% {22+, 32s+ 42s+, Axs, Any broadway, Any 2 8+ suited} - 3bets



Drunk

3betting ~ 8.5 {88+, AJo+, ATs+, KJs+, KQo}
CCing ~ 44% {22+ Ax, Kxs, Any 2 8+/6+ suited, 32s+, 42s+ 52s+} - 3bets



TAG

3betting ~ 6% {TT+, AQ+, KQs, 65s-87s}
CCing ~ 8.5% {22+, AJs, KQo, 43s+, 53s-J9s} - 3bets

 

[ChuckTs]

Great stuff guys, but there's no need to get too specific with it. The more specific you get, the tougher and more tedious the work gets, plus getting as specific as including 67s but not 34s for ex. often won't make that much of a difference.

Rounding off rough cold calling ranges is a good start. Just remember you'll be looking at tons of flop textures for each player type. I guess it'll be easier with the 'save player profile' option thing, but don't make it too hard on yourselves

 

[Mase31683]

Yeah, being able to save them is great, makes everything a breeze after you have the ranges.

I think that the CC and 3bet figures are definitely the more important ones too now that I think about it. The only pots we're really playing are where someone CC's us, or limps, then calls the raise which I think is going to narrow their range more toward the original CC range anyway.

I did that first go round really late/early and wasn't thinking about what the data would actually be used for, although it's not without purpose, and since I already did it I did save those profiles as well.

 

[NineLions]

Good idea Stu.

I think a good place to start is with cold calling ranges. Fish calls top %30/%20/%60/whatever, tag calls %7 suited connector/pair type range, tricky lag/tag plays similar %7 range, but flats monsters once in a while, etc etc.

This is where I've stuck myself in my own attempts. I start trying to figure, someone who is 22/8, that means they are in but didn't raise 14% of the time. But their range shifts in those 14% of hands whether they open limped, limped behind, cold called, or limp/called.

Or maybe I've been overthinking how my opponent's adjust. Or overvaluing the probably slight card difference per situation.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

HI Mase

Really good work.

Yeah I think we should just stick to the CC ranges for a bit.

Then move onto other ranges later.

Like most things, we didn't realise what we were getting into at the start, so multiple ranges for different villain types seemed a good idea, but I think if we try and do this in too much detail we will end up with so much data that we won't be able to digest it!!

 

[ChuckTs]

%6 looks fine, sure. Again though whether he's polarizing his range or not can change player to player. I do see people 3betting suited connectors sometimes, but in general a 'good' tag will flat them and 3bet more hands like 47s or J8s that they can't quite call with. Again, not a huge adjustment though.

I was going to say that I think we're getting too specific with player types, when we should be keeping them relatively simple and getting more into complex board textures, but this could turn out well.

 

[ChuckTs]

Good idea Stu.



This is where I've stuck myself in my own attempts. I start trying to figure, someone who is 22/8, that means they are in but didn't raise 14% of the time. But their range shifts in those 14% of hands whether they open limped, limped behind, cold called, or limp/called.

Or maybe I've been overthinking how my opponent's adjust. Or overvaluing the probably slight card difference per situation.

Well one way of finding out their cold calling range is to check their cold calling stat

But that doesn't give you an accurate range if you plug it into a program - they always give you the top %X instead of specific hand types. Just think about how a reg or fish you often see plays, and just plug in a rough range in pokerazor. Like a tag probably 3bets JJ+/AK/maybe AQ, calls with suited connectors 56s-KQs, pairs up to 99 or TT, stuff like ATs+/AQo, 3bets everything better and folds everything worse. Then a passive fish may call all suited aces and a lot more one-gap suited connectors, more unsuited connectors, etc etc.

 

[WossaPotOddz]

Cool idea for a thread. I'll learn to use this pokerrazor thing and then get involved. Will probably have some questions at some point, is it ok to PM if help is needed?