Odds vs. Implied Odds

Sample situation that I see often and I question the correct way to go ahead with the hand. I do not understand the concepts of implied odds.

Effective stk sizes are 10K for this sample situation and we are 9 handed.
Blinds 200/100 ante 50 (pot size 750)

Exactly what cards don't really matter here...

Seats 1-5 fold

Seat 6 raises to 600

Seats 7&8 fold

Seat 9 (BB) calls

Current pot size now - 1750

So let's say I flop an outside straight draw

If the orginal raiser leads out on the flop I would not normally be getting the correct price to call to see 1 more cards.

For instance

I'm holding 9h8h
Villains holding AA (we don't know this)

Flop hits 76Q rainbow - I know have an outside straight draw and the pot size is 1750.

If the villain leads out with his AA (which he most likely would) I would only be able to call a bet of about 360 to see the turn. It isn't likely he will be 360 or less here.

I think this is where implied odds come in and I need to understand it more.

The 4/2 rule is misued far too often IMO. I'm 32% to make my hand if I do the math that I'm going to see 2 more cards than I can call a bet as large as 800, but I'm not guaranteed to see 2 more cards only 1.

What is the CORRECT thing to do? I would think you'd have to fold most draws unless implied odds explain something I don't understand already.

Implied odds are simply the amount you think you will win in addition to the bet you are calling. In your exaample with AA let us say that the villian is notorious for overplaying AA on a dangerous board. You can call a pot sized bet of 1750 because your implied odds are saying you are actually playing for his whole stack there is 1750 in the pot plus over 7k still in his stack, giving you better odds than you need to make that call.

People get in trouble becuase they over estimate implied odds when they are chasing hands. For instance flushes tend to be very obvious so people are much less likely to spew implied odds when the flush card hits.

Implied odds factor in the money you stand to bet and win on future streets.

I'll just use a quick example here of a common situation where I make a very simple implied odds based decision

UTG opens to 4x
I float on the button with 78
Flop is 59K
UTG Bets 2/3 pot

Now I don't have correct odds to call, but I can call this bet to try to hit on the turn because if I do make my hand I stand to win a large pot because he has a narrow range that he'll have trouble laying down. But, I will not call the same relative sized bet (2/3 pot) on the turn if I don't improve, because then I will only have one street to extract value if I hit, rather than two.

Obviously this is somewhat of an over simplification of what actually goes in to determining implied value, but I hope you get the point.

I think I already understood that idea. I just didn't really think that implied odds where that simple.

So a sound way to play draws would to only call if the villain has a big enough stk to justify my call and I have a good idea that he will call if I make my draw.

BrentD22 said:

I think I already understood that idea. I just didn't really think that implied odds where that simple.

So a sound way to play draws would to only call if the villain has a big enough stk to justify my call and I have a good idea that he will call if I make my draw.

Click to expand...

Pretty much, yeah, that's the idea.

Moreorless comes down to how narrow/wide villain's range is and how good/bad villain is. If a nit opens UTG you can safetly set mine knowing that villain's range is very very tight so he will often have TPTK/overpair on the board if you hit and you can get paid off to make the incorrect pot odds call preflop a correct implied odds call.

If a 27/22 steals on the button, you absolutely don't have odds to set mine with a pp because villain is going to have complete trash most of the time and you have to fold when you miss and won't get paid off when you hit.

Typically you have more implied odds vs a fish than a solid player, because vs a fish you can make a more marginal type hand and be happier stacking off because you know villain will stack a very wide range and you also get more action (ie. implied odds) when you hit your hand from somebody who has a wide stacking range. So maybe i'd call with 78s in the sb vs a wide button opening range because i know the 87/3 fish in the BB is going to come along and i'll be able to get action from a wider range because the fish is willing to stack off with more marginal hands. You could call with incorrect pot odds to make a draw vs a fish because you know he isn't going to be able to lay down his TP hand when a draw hits and you go for maximum value etc.

Typically implied odds come from tight ranges that will make good, but not great, hands and not be able to make good laydowns and wide ranges that will put alot of money in bad