This is a discussion on ODDS,,Thomas Bayes within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Thomas Bayes Therum, aka,Theorys, The reverend Thomas Bayes was an English mathamation, born 1702,,died 1761,,looked on the net for info about him, I was watching 


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ODDS,,Thomas Bayes
Thomas Bayes Therum, aka,Theorys, The reverend Thomas Bayes was an English mathamation, born 1702,,died 1761,,looked on the net for info about him, I was watching a tv program about odds and his name was mentioned, it was about Odds in our Daily life to poker odds,, it was very interesting,, I was just wondering if ANY of you guys ever use his theory, the Bays Therum they called it,,, was wondering if any of you college guys were taught it or have ever heard of it. I was also wondering if this is the theory Jesus Ferguson uses, cant think of Fergusons 1st. name rite now,, Anyways do any of you play poker using his theorys>> buck

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Bill Chen  "The Mathematics Of Poker" Study Group  242  18th August 2016 8:41 PM  Cash Games  Fknife 
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From reading about Bayes Theorem on Wikipedia, the closest application (I think anyway) is "implied odds" (http://www.cardschat.com/pokerodds...pliedodds.php)

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Jesus Ferguson mentioned it on an interview, i didnt know what the hell he was talking about, till today when i saw the show, i read a little of it on Wiki Pedia< or whatever its called>> seemed interesting, at my age all i got is my experiance, when i read something i usually forget it in a matter of minutes, im going to read more of Bayes Therom later,,, if you young guys read it, you should remember it, It might just Help in your poker playing.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> buck

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Thanks Buck, I'd heard of it but not read anything. After a bit of Wiki browsing it seems Pete is right about it being in the same area as implied odds. Definately a useful tool when thinking about the game (as is any conceptual framework for helping understand things).
Haven't a clue about understanding the mathematical formulas I came across though 
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re: Poker & ODDS,,Thomas Bayes
General probability theory, which can be applied to poker odds, as far as I know.
Since he was a minister, I don't know if Bayes would have approved of it being used for gambling, but who knows. My wife would know more just 'cause she likes stats. Chuck might too. 
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re: Poker & ODDS,,Thomas Bayes
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In fact, the application has more to do with putting your opponent on a hand, or a range of hands, given their actions/reactions. You would be using it when determining the probability that your opponent has x, given y information that we have about him. My understanding of Bayes comes from Sklansky in "Getting the Best of It (http://twoplustwo.com/getting.html)": "Whenever something has occurred that could have two or more different causes behind it, Bayes' Theorem shows us how to calculate the probability for each cause." i.e. "if something can happen by any of a variety of different causes or means, the probability that it will happen in any particular way is the probability of the event happening by that means, as compared to the total probability of the event happening at all." He gives the example of a horse racing prop bet where by we are betting that filly A will win IF in fact a filly wins the race. In other words, I would describe it as sort of "piggybacked" contingencies. In poker you might say "given that my opponent open raised, what is the probability that he has a pair?". Given that he will open with (x) range, you then compare that range with the know probability of having been dealt a pair. In other words, it is sort of a "combination of the probabilities." 
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Bill Chen  "The Mathematics Of Poker" Study Group  242  18th August 2016 8:41 PM  Cash Games  Fknife 