Not trusting your reads can cost you value

TPC · Oct 21, 2019

After stepping away from the game I love for many years I've finally came back! I've missed the competition and also the community here at CC. Below, is a hand I found interesting from today's session, and how not trusting our reads can cost us value.

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $5.10 (102 bb)
CO: $5.87 (117 bb)
BU (Hero): $13.13 (263 bb)
SB: $9.38 (188 bb)
BB: $3.80 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with J♠ Q♠
1 fold, CO raises to $0.14, Hero calls $0.14, 1 fold, BB calls $0.09

Flop: ($0.44) 5♣ Q♦ 4♦ (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44, BB folds

Turn: ($1.32) Q♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.66, CO calls $0.66

River: ($2.64) T♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $2.64 (Rake: $0.13)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows J♠ Q♠ (three of a kind, Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

CO shows A♠ A♥ (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BU (Hero) wins $2.51

On the flop villain makes a huge pot bet after the BB checks. My first though is villain has AQ or a big pair here possibly. I decide to call and see what happens on the turn, I don't have a lot of history with this player. When the Q comes on the turn, I'm thinking well, villain can also take this line with a set of 5's or 4's and as much as I wanted to raise the turn, I decide
to just call and keep the pot as small as possible. Then when a flush possibility hits the river and villain checks, I'm even more cautious. I figure I have great show down value and just check behind.

When we flip the cards over and I saw villain had AA, I was upset with myself. My read from the very start with that first pot sized bet was villain had a big pair or AQ. AQ is less likely after the turn comes so then we are looking at AA or KK. Now, I don't like putting villain on such a narrow range of hands because we can talk ourself into doing some -ev things, but in some spots I think we need to trust our gut. That big pot bet screamed to me big pair! Then I started looking for monsters under the bed. I started looking for things that weren't there and being worried about the flush on the river was irrelevant the way this hand played. Had I raised the turn, I most likely could've stacked villain here. The way it played out, I should've bet for value on the river. I don't see someone at 5nl folding AA for a half pot bet on the river.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this hand and this topic.

eetenor · Oct 21, 2019

TPC said:
After stepping away from the game I love for many years I've finally came back! I've missed the competition and also the community here at CC. Below, is a hand I found interesting from today's session, and how not trusting our reads can cost us value.

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $5.10 (102 bb)
CO: $5.87 (117 bb)
BU (Hero): $13.13 (263 bb)
SB: $9.38 (188 bb)
BB: $3.80 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with J♠ Q♠
1 fold, CO raises to $0.14, Hero calls $0.14, 1 fold, BB calls $0.09

Flop: ($0.44) 5♣ Q♦ 4♦ (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44, BB folds

Turn: ($1.32) Q♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.66, CO calls $0.66

River: ($2.64) T♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $2.64 (Rake: $0.13)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) shows J♠ Q♠ (three of a kind, Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

CO shows A♠ A♥ (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BU (Hero) wins $2.51

On the flop villain makes a huge pot bet after the BB checks. My first though is villain has AQ or a big pair here possibly. I decide to call and see what happens on the turn, I don't have a lot of history with this player. When the Q comes on the turn, I'm thinking well, villain can also take this line with a set of 5's or 4's and as much as I wanted to raise the turn, I decide
to just call and keep the pot as small as possible. Then when a flush possibility hits the river and villain checks, I'm even more cautious. I figure I have great show down value and just check behind.

When we flip the cards over and I saw villain had AA, I was upset with myself. My read from the very start with that first pot sized bet was villain had a big pair or AQ. AQ is less likely after the turn comes so then we are looking at AA or KK. Now, I don't like putting villain on such a narrow range of hands because we can talk ourself into doing some -ev things, but in some spots I think we need to trust our gut. That big pot bet screamed to me big pair! Then I started looking for monsters under the bed. I started looking for things that weren't there and being worried about the flush on the river was irrelevant the way this hand played. Had I raised the turn, I most likely could've stacked villain here. The way it played out, I should've bet for value on the river. I don't see someone at 5nl folding AA for a half pot bet on the river.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this hand and this topic.

Thank U 4 Posting.

There seems to be some confusing statements in your post. You say you had a great read on villain of AA KK but then called a pot size bet with QsJs with 18.% equity?

Then the action is turn CO Check -U Bet -CO Call and you state you should have raised turn but you bet- they check called? How could you raise? Did you mean bet bigger?

Then you think you could have stacked the CO so does that mean the CO would call a river shove with AsAh on a QxxQx 3 club flush board when the back door flush draw comes in and you bet the turn? CO already pot controlled the turn now they lose to 10+ hands and you think you can stack them? The pot is $2.51 you would have to pot plus shove the river and get called by AA. If AA plays that poorly and you know they have it why not a bigger bet on the turn? Maybe that is what you meant by raise turn?

It could be a language issue we have many English as a second language members.

We have to be careful of thinking about results. If your read was right on the flop, your hand was a fold then. Unless you knew AA KK is never folding to any run out in which case you can bet pot on the turn and shove river unless it is AA KK. However if you know villain is never folding then you can never bluff which makes your hand a fold on the flop.
If we have 18% equity and have to hit our hand on the turn to continue as AA KK are going to pot bet blank turns we should not chase with this hand.

Hope this helps

TPC · Oct 21, 2019

eetenor said:
Thank U 4 Posting.

There seems to be some confusing statements in your post. You say you had a great read on villain of AA KK but then called a pot size bet with QsJs with 18.% equity?

Then the action is turn CO Check -U Bet -CO Call and you state you should have raised turn but you bet- they check called? How could you raise? Did you mean bet bigger?

Then you think you could have stacked the CO so does that mean the CO would call a river shove with AsAh on a QxxQx 3 club flush board when the back door flush draw comes in and you bet the turn? CO already pot controlled the turn now they lose to 10+ hands and you think you can stack them? The pot is $2.51 you would have to pot plus shove the river and get called by AA. If AA plays that poorly and you know they have it why not a bigger bet on the turn? Maybe that is what you meant by raise turn?

It could be a language issue we have many English as a second language members.

We have to be careful of thinking about results. If your read was right on the flop, your hand was a fold then. Unless you knew AA KK is never folding to any run out in which case you can bet pot on the turn and shove river unless it is AA KK. However if you know villain is never folding then you can never bluff which makes your hand a fold on the flop.
If we have 18% equity and have to hit our hand on the turn to continue as AA KK are going to pot bet blank turns we should not chase with this hand.

Hope this helps

My apologies. This hand was in the middle of a four table, three hour session. I somehow confused how it played out with possible similar hands. During my session I kept thinking I left some value on the table and thought it would be a good discussion to have on CC. After my session I quickly found the hand and made my post without actually looking at the HH, as I also had somewhere to be. So this thread provides a couple of unintended lessons. Read your HH before making a post about it so you don't look like a moron.

With that said, I still thought with the huge pot bet on the flop I was facing a big pair. You ask how, with only 18% equity I can call a pot sized bet. Many years a go there was threads about implied odds and reverse implied odds. You touch on those concepts at the end of your post. I had a pretty good understanding of those concepts back then, but today I only have a basic understanding. So thinking I was against a big pair all I need is for my hand to improve enough to beat said pair. If my hand does improve I can most likely stack my opponent, in turn making my play profitable. No there is a bunch of math that needs to be done to be able to make plays like this on a regular basis. So I need to go brush up on implied odds and reverse implied odds. However, this was my line of thinking when calling the pot sized bet on the flop.

As far as the rest of my original post, I learned my memory while four tabling isn't as good as it was when I used to 12 table back during the poker boom. So we can basically disregard the rest of my post. lol. I will make sure I don't post things in a rush in the future.

With that said, as you mentioned, my bet on the turn could've been bigger and I still left value on the river and should've fired a value bet there.

eetenor · Oct 22, 2019

TPC said:
My apologies. This hand was in the middle of a four table, three hour session. I somehow confused how it played out with possible similar hands. During my session I kept thinking I left some value on the table and thought it would be a good discussion to have on CC. After my session I quickly found the hand and made my post without actually looking at the HH, as I also had somewhere to be. So this thread provides a couple of unintended lessons. Read your HH before making a post about it so you don't look like a moron.

With that said, I still thought with the huge pot bet on the flop I was facing a big pair. You ask how, with only 18% equity I can call a pot sized bet. Many years a go there was threads about implied odds and reverse implied odds. You touch on those concepts at the end of your post. I had a pretty good understanding of those concepts back then, but today I only have a basic understanding. So thinking I was against a big pair all I need is for my hand to improve enough to beat said pair. If my hand does improve I can most likely stack my opponent, in turn making my play profitable. No there is a bunch of math that needs to be done to be able to make plays like this on a regular basis. So I need to go brush up on implied odds and reverse implied odds. However, this was my line of thinking when calling the pot sized bet on the flop.

As far as the rest of my original post, I learned my memory while four tabling isn't as good as it was when I used to 12 table back during the poker boom. So we can basically disregard the rest of my post. lol. I will make sure I don't post things in a rush in the future.

With that said, as you mentioned, my bet on the turn could've been bigger and I still left value on the river and should've fired a value bet there.

Thank U 4 Responding

No worries on getting confused we all do it. Just keep posting hands that is the important part.
Great job recognizing you need to refresh your implied odds work:five:

Quick tip if you want to chase in these spots have some backdoor draws as well as the set and two pair draws. Adding a backdoor flush draw is 22% equity vs 18% back door straight and flush 25% equity.

Keep up the good work learning to get better.

Hope this helps

Ianmacca99 · Oct 22, 2019

With our lead on the turn what do we have when we check in this spot ? IMO keep your range wide by checking to the aggressor. A check raise on the turn would of been an option.
We have lead the turn showing aggression so once flush completes think villan is checking back more often than not on the river assuming he hasn't made a flush himself. so you could of continued and gone for some more value here .

Even with a queen he's only calling raising would be suicidal as you could easily have flushes

theANMATOR · Aug 17, 2021

I think you played this hand conservatively, and smartly.
Although you missed some thin value on the river, I think you played the turn and river properly.

As you stated villain might have called a half pot bet on the river, even though he is getting beat by a lot of hands.

If you bet the river you also are risking getting check raised, and being in a gross spot, since you also are beat by quite a few hands, and villain could legit rep those hands.

For that reason alone, I think you played the turn/river perfectly. Yes you missed some thin value at the end, but I think it was a smart play to check the river, instead of betting and facing a huge check raise - and having to hero call to win the pot.

Course - I'm a tourney player, and their are big differences in this hand playing in a tourney compared to cash game.

Porras2424 · Aug 17, 2021

It is difficult but not impossible, trying to know with which hand our opponents are opposing, ranges of many variables, but with the way the community falls, it depends on the movement that they make us and that we manage to puncture, if we continue in the hand we must see minimal puncture second pair, and if our rival continues his envestida we will know approximately what it can take, when the tang falls, we must at least continue paying with our second pair punctured and if the rival continues, we will evaluate how strong our hand is to continue or our kiker is the card to evaluate for possible continuation, try not to risk or pay if we already define which hand the opponent can take,. That we pay or fold because better hands come up to pay later, to win we have to risk, of course with a good hand ,,,

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Not trusting your reads can cost you value

TPC

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eetenor

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TPC

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eetenor

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Ianmacca99

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theANMATOR

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Porras2424

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