I haven't worked this out completely yet, but off the top of my head, here's my (gut feeling) ranges for different moves on the flop vs. a lag:
: Not with any default range. If
he will c-bet close to 100% of the time (and his range is 35%), I'd rather check/raise and win a bigger pot unimproved (presuming he'll fold at least
the same range to a c/r as he would to a lead - is that a reasonable assumption?).
(UI/strong) i.e. A-8+, KQ*, trips, 33.
KQ deserves its own explanation, though: Calling on the flop is because of the parley between two things:
1. I sometimes have the best hand still and he will shut down,
2. I have 6 likely outs, and three bluff outs (the aces). I will lead if a Q, K or A hits the turn.
(Bluffs/weak made hands) QJs, 22+.
As you can see, my default ranges are meant to be exploitative, not game theory optimal. Without history with an opponent, I will mostly just c/r the weaker stuff of my holdings, because he typically fold so often that I should really not give up bluffing/protecting, while at the same time I can afford to slowplay when I actually have it.
This is a habit that I'm going to have to adjust when I start noticing who the regulars are, but the player pool at Stars $25NL is just too big to start worrying about mixing it up much.
By the way, don't take this as me trying to convince you all I'm right. I haven't given this a lot of thought, but I've thought about it some, and I like to try to argue my case (because I'm past the point of "accepting" dogma, so to speak) and I need the sparring to wrap my head around some of these things.
RIDICULOUSLY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS BEGIN
My sample size for determining whether I'm right or wrong by looking at my Poker Tracker stats is way too small, so nothing much can be seen there either, but for what it's worth:
Over 1k hands (since I started playing this way, essentially), I have:
- 15 hands where there was a steal attempt and I just called from one of the blinds.
- 6 of those 15 went to showdown.
- 4 others of those 15, I won without showdown.
- and the remaining 5, I folded before showdown.
I showed a net profit of the 9 hands that didn't go to showdown.
BB/hand was +1.75. Only one pot was for more than half my stack (and that's when I hit a flush and stacked him). Of the other five hands that went to showdown, the average pot was 15BBs, meaning that it cost me less than 8BBs to get there.
RIDICULOUSLY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS END
(By the way, even if I eventually get a really large sample size and it still shows me in the black, that doesn't necessarily mean that I'm right to coldcall preflop. It could be that I'd be even better off 3-betting)