NLHE cash table: When given pot odds, is there
ever a time when you DON'T or SHOULDN'T call?
Here's the hand in a nut shell:
NLHE cash ring table.
Dealt to me at BB 10cJc.
VGood TAG to my left at UTG, absolute "call anything" fish to my right in SB. TAG has me out chipped 5 to 1, I have fish out stacked 1 to 0.8.
TAG bets 3BB, 2 or 3 early callers, fish calls, 2BB to me with pot of 12BB to 15BB.
My read on TAG is that 3BB bet indicates pp less than K's or A with 7-10 range if in later position. So UTG, I'm thinking PP 8's through PP Q's.
I call 2BB. <- Question #1: Right move here or not? Is TJ sooooted worth a 1:6 / 1:7+ ratio?
*** FLOP *** [Qc 3c 9h]
Ok, so now I'm sitting on a bi-lat/flush draw.
Out:Four 8's, Four K's, Seven Other clubs (plus the 8c & Kc for the usual 9) for a total of 15 outs, turn and river to go so approx. 60% chance I'll hit the flush or the str8
Question #2: Is there ANY bet that UTG or SB Fish can make at this point that I SHOULD NOT call?
Fish bets 11BB into a Pot of 14BB to 17BB, so 11BB:28BB my thought "insta-call". Pot now at 35BB to 39BB. BTW:Read on Fish is that he's paired the Q with a kicker of around a 7....yeah...it's been that bad...previous hand made large call on TP crap kicker when the board had 4 hearts and he had none!
TAG raises 42BB, Folds around to the Fish who "Insta-calls-allin" with 32BB.
Pot now at 109BB to 113BB, Bet to me 42BB for a ratio of 2:5.
Question #3o I call here? My stack pre-call is at 97BB. I KNOW the TAG has at least trip 9's, probably trip Q's and if I DON'T hit on the turn TAG will put me on my chips.
Swing and a miss, strike 2. Now my odds
of hitting are at 30%. Pot at 151BB to 155BB. My stack is 55BB. If TAG "stacks me", the call to pot ratio will be 55:210 or around 1:4.
Sure enough, TGA Bets 100BB
Question #4: Do I lay this down here with a 1:3 expected win rate and a 1:4 call ratio?
Question #5: If this were instead late in a tourney, would you call then?
I called and was all in.
Swing and a miss, strike three. Pete shows rag ace high, hangs his head and walks slowly back to the dugout.
Tag shows pp Q's for three of a kind Q's and rakes in 270+BB