NL5 Gutshot, Implied Odds?

LizaBuv

LizaBuv

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I don't usually have a formal plan to how I figure out my implied odds. How might some of you figure out your implied odds from a mathematical perspective in the following situation. I kind of think about the math but more in a general way.

Poker Stars - $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em (8 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com
SB: $4.76
BB: $12.50
UTG: $10.39
MP: $5
MP+1: $6.28
MP+2: $5
CO Hero: $5.09
BTN: $12.93
kobedog - Sitting Out
Pre-flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO and dealt :8s4: :7d4:
UTG calls $0.05, MP calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.05, BTN folds, SB calls $0.03, BB checks
Flop: ($0.25) :2c4: :6h4: :10d4: (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.05, MP raises $0.23, Hero calls $0.23, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.18
Turn: ($0.94) :2c4: :6h4: :10d4: :9s4: (3 players)
UTG bets $0.35, MP calls $0.35, Hero raises $2.10, UTG calls $1.75, MP folds
River: ($5.49) :2c4: :6h4: :10d4: :9s4: :4h4: (2 players)
UTG bets $0.30, Hero raises $2.71 (All-in), UTG calls $2.41

Not a usual flop call for me but the conditions were extra good.
- Gutshot was to the nuts
- Flop was rainbow
- The guy who bet 5 c was a "wet noodle" so I did not expect him to 3 bet
- The raiser appeared strong and interested in the hand

Would I ever have enough implied odds to call. Could someone who is good with the implied odds math show me how they would work through this mathematically?
 
TylerN

TylerN

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idk the math but no i would not call around 2:1 on a gutshot??
 
M

mikejm

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think about if you played this time 100 times. lets say that utg reraises it 20 times, which with out seeing his stats is very possible, thats 4.60 cents down the tubes right there. now your gonna miss you draw on the turn 92 percent of the time so of the 80 times you don't get re raised you miss about 74 times that translates to a loss of 17 dollars plus 4.60 so thats 21.60. now your gonna hit 6 times and you have about 4.60 cents behind so your gonna profit 27.6 if you can get all in every time. now theres no way thats exact as there so many things that could happen differently. you could get raised more often by utg after the flop and theres no saying that you definitely get it all in every time.

thats the math of it i think the math is all right but im not sure and if anyone wants to check please do. as for calculating all that in the heat of the moment you just need to know gut shots are probably not going to be worth it.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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don't chase gutshots unless you're pretty deep
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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To figure out your implied odds you look at the bet you have to call, then add your opponent's stack to the size of the pot, and then determine your odds. So you're implied odds here are in the neighborhood of 20:1.

Chance of hitting a gutshot on the next street is ~10:1. There are a couple of issues though:

- there is still one more person to act, who could raise you
- you won't get paid every time you hit
- sometimes you'll hit and still lose to a full house on the river

So if we were in a heads-up pot, maybe you could call (you should probably still fold) but here is a spot where I don't think you can ever call, because although your apparent implied odds are good, the situation dictates that you're actually in a pretty crappy spot.
 
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