Need $13 of rake before the 19th, is it doable?

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Grinder888

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I am one of many duped by the welcome package of poker sites. Well mostly bc we don't bother to read that we have to earn it a very hard way. Anyway I just play 2NL and need 26 status points ($13 of rake) to clear a 10$ bonus. I have many bonuses left but this is the only one I can at least target.

Seeing my April stats, I have played 11.4k hands in 15 days and total rake I contributed is 29.15$ which roughly means I need to play 5,084 or more hands of my A game over the next 3 days if I want a shot. Now this seems a tough target bc I am focusing on certain aspects of my game and have restricted myself to only 3 tables in a session MAX. Also for April so far I have a good WR of 15.5bb/100.

Do you think it is wise to push myself for the bonus? Or should I just keep doing what I'm doing and if I get it then I get it?

Thanks!
 
skrsh76

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if you play for your bonus and want to get involved with hands you would normally not then you have the change to loose the bonus money before you even get them
 
Poker Orifice

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DO NOT PLAY FOR BONUS.
this is from one of the poker books.

sure but there's not a problem if the guy is just trying to clear it while playing 2nl tables (it's not like he's going to jump up to 200nl just to clear the bonus.... or move from 3-tabling to 23-tabling).

I'm guessing this is on partypoker (because of the 2pts. per $1 rake).. or 'uuh'.. 888 because of his name on CC).
It'd seem you'd need to play ~6hrs./day for 3days (18hrs. total).

I'm not sure how long you've played for in the past during a day... but with the weekend here now, tables are always ALOT softer. If I were you, I would for sure add another table and just do it! If you're a winning player, you're going to hit the bonus AND you'll be winning a handful of buyins as well (it's the weekend!). Sounds like an easily do-able goal
 
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Poker Orifice

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If it's 888Poker, I would increase to 6 tables & clear your bonus. Its always been ridiculously soft tables on there in the micros.
 
XXPXXP

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sure but there's not a problem if the guy is just trying to clear it while playing 2nl tables (it's not like he's going to jump up to 200nl just to clear the bonus.... or move from 3-tabling to 23-tabling).

I'm guessing this is on PartyPoker (because of the 2pts. per $1 rake).. or 'uuh'.. 888 because of his name on CC).
It'd seem you'd need to play ~6hrs./day for 3days (18hrs. total).

I'm not sure how long you've played for in the past during a day... but with the weekend here now, tables are always ALOT softer. If I were you, I would for sure add another table and just do it! If you're a winning player, you're going to hit the bonus AND you'll be winning a handful of buyins as well (it's the weekend!). Sounds like an easily do-able goal

OK let's make a rough estimate
if it is worth or not.

if this player winning rate 15BB/100 hands
he played 11.4K hands on 15 days
which means 768 hands per day with A game means make 75% correct play against weak player who make about 60% correct play.

now he needs to play 5.8K hands in 3 days in a rush.
if not in a rush...
he is expect to play 2.2K hands in 3 days
he needs to play some thing extra 5.8-2.2=3.6K hands

which means he needs to play about 1.5 times more.

if not rush he is expect to win 15BB/100*5800*0.02 = about 17 bux
his bonus is 13 bux
In this rush condition he needs to win at least 4 bux =200BB for that 5.8K hands
winning rate needs to be at least 3.4BB/100

here let's see if he could do this by multi-tabling

his muti-tabling mistake rate = normal 1 unite for 75% correct play
here he is playing for 2.5 unite
so his correct play is 0.75^2.5=48%

so against 75-60% player is 15BB
48% VS 60% player is negative BB

if he is doing like 80% correct play- I would expect he could not do 80% correct play and weak player could do more than 60% correct play but it does not matter

multi-tabling 2.5 times
80%^2.5=57% still could not beat the players pool of 60% correct play.

unless I think if he could do the 90% correct play
when multi-tabling
90^2.5=76%
it could be some thing like 15/(90-60)*(76-60)=7.5+BB/100 hands.

I don't think he could do that well.
you know top player like Stu Ungar still make about 5% mistake...this is top player.
TOP SNG player make 3% mistakes
good cash regular make about 10% mistake... that is good cash player
if he is a good cash regular...he could directly play NL100-NL200 not NL2.

based on my rough estimate, My Idea is , it is a loss to trade winning rate for bonus in this case.
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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If it's 888Poker, I would increase to 6 tables & clear your bonus. Its always been ridiculously soft tables on there in the micros.

cash game , table soft does not mean , easy to play
cash game is more focused on postflop play
not on preflop, cos the stake is deep, big pot happens on turn and river , esp river big pot.

table soft means ...need more reads and calculation for river pot, cos the range is wide.

PS: you did not say, aggression conditions post flop on soft tables... if preflop soft and loose , but postflop , full of A-Fish...I don't think these tables are easy to play.
 
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OK let's make a rough estimate
if it is worth or not.

if this player winning rate 15BB/100 hands
he played 11.4K hands on 15 days
which means 768 hands per day with A game means make 75% correct play against weak player who make about 60% correct play.

now he needs to play 5.8K hands in 3 days in a rush.
if not in a rush...
he is expect to play 2.2K hands in 3 days
he needs to play some thing extra 5.8-2.2=3.6K hands

which means he needs to play about 1.5 times more.

if not rush he is expect to win 15BB/100*5800*0.02 = about 17 bux
his bonus is 13 bux
In this rush condition he needs to win at least 4 bux =200BB for that 5.8K hands
winning rate needs to be at least 3.4BB/100

here let's see if he could do this by multi-tabling

his muti-tabling mistake rate = normal 1 unite for 75% correct play
here he is playing for 2.5 unite
so his correct play is 0.75^2.5=48%

so against 75-60% player is 15BB
48% VS 60% player is negative BB

if he is doing like 80% correct play- I would expect he could not do 80% correct play and weak player could do more than 60% correct play but it does not matter

multi-tabling 2.5 times
80%^2.5=57% still could not beat the players pool of 60% correct play.

unless I think if he could do the 90% correct play
when multi-tabling
90^2.5=76%
it could be some thing like 15/(90-60)*(76-60)=7.5+BB/100 hands.

I don't think he could do that well.
you know top player like Stu Ungar still make about 5% mistake...this is top player.
TOP SNG player make 3% mistakes
good cash regular make about 10% mistake... that is good cash player
if he is a good cash regular...he could directly play NL100-NL200 not NL2.

based on my rough estimate, My Idea is , it is a loss to trade winning rate for bonus in this case.


Wow those are some heavy calculations. Really appreciate you detailing your response and I agree it does seem to be a risky bet. Couple it with the fact that I was a losing player last month and just started to show a marginal profit of 4.17bb/100 over total 18k hands (but I was a complete fish in March and might be slight fishy now but definitely improving).

Ill play my 3 tables but try to get max hands in since yes the weekend does have some huge swings but like you said with fishes post flop you have to loosen up a bit and does include some variance here and there.

What really interests me are the equations you used for making good decisions and how they are affected by multi tabling. I definitely would like to learn more and so would appreciate if you can provide some links to good reading material on the same.

Once again thank you for your diligence :)
 
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sure but there's not a problem if the guy is just trying to clear it while playing 2nl tables (it's not like he's going to jump up to 200nl just to clear the bonus.... or move from 3-tabling to 23-tabling).

I'm guessing this is on PartyPoker (because of the 2pts. per $1 rake).. or 'uuh'.. 888 because of his name on CC).
It'd seem you'd need to play ~6hrs./day for 3days (18hrs. total).

I'm not sure how long you've played for in the past during a day... but with the weekend here now, tables are always ALOT softer. If I were you, I would for sure add another table and just do it! If you're a winning player, you're going to hit the bonus AND you'll be winning a handful of buyins as well (it's the weekend!). Sounds like an easily do-able goal

If it's 888Poker, I would increase to 6 tables & clear your bonus. Its always been ridiculously soft tables on there in the micros.

Thanks guys appreciate the responses. And yes the weekend games definitely are good to cash in. Also yes I do play on 888 but I don't understand the sigh? Given my location it is either 888 or iPoker networks, and I downloaded NetBet and Titan from iPoker just to see traffic but it wasn't much better than 888. But I am open to suggestions if I'm missing something. (Obv I would love to play on PS but "restriction")

So I have played March and April (did play Jan-Feb as well but that was on an ipad and lost my whole BR then bc I was a massive fish jumping stakes here and there) and just started tightening up my range near the end of march. This is also when I started to understand the HUD and its benefits. Now I am working to eliminate the passiveness in my natural game by cutting back my calling range and 3betting more. But if I do this with 4 or more tables I sometimes lose perspective of the post flop play and end up making huge mistakes in sheer aggression or on tilt or bc of idiotic playbacks.

But I do agree, if I can put in a lot of hours to make up the volume without affecting my game strategy I may have a shot. Its just till Monday right :)

One thing that does come to mind is this: I was thinking about taking a shot at 5NL (currently have 21BI for that stake) but deferred it till May so I could tighten my game better at a cheaper stake. Maybe I could go for a 2-3 BI shot at 5NL, that would definitely ease out the equation, win or loss I will have more rake and worst case scenario I will have to grind that amount back at 2 NL. I think this might be good considering its the weekend (softer field) and even if I play NIT and only wait for the fishes it would actually have a good pay out.

Looking forward to hearing what you all think about this? (you included "XXPXXP")
 
korneel

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There's a reason that the bonus-target is so high.
They don't want you to get the bonus. It's almost impossible.
 
G

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There's a reason that the bonus-target is so high.
They don't want you to get the bonus. It's almost impossible.

IKR! Unfortunately I did not read very well into it before putting up my deposit. Anyhow now I am reluctant to sign up on any other site before I move up to reasonable stakes. Bc I will not lose a welcome bonus the second time around :D
 
XXPXXP

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Wow those are some heavy calculations. Really appreciate you detailing your response and I agree it does seem to be a risky bet. Couple it with the fact that I was a losing player last month and just started to show a marginal profit of 4.17bb/100 over total 18k hands (but I was a complete fish in March and might be slight fishy now but definitely improving).

Ill play my 3 tables but try to get max hands in since yes the weekend does have some huge swings but like you said with fishes post flop you have to loosen up a bit and does include some variance here and there.

What really interests me are the equations you used for making good decisions and how they are affected by multi tabling. I definitely would like to learn more and so would appreciate if you can provide some links to good reading material on the same.

Once again thank you for your diligence :)

the basic and advanced maths , you are all learn from high school and college.
the important thing is trying to apply what you learned to this game- poker
and trying to use all these maths tools to solve the real question.

So I have a bunch of links for basic and advanced maths classes , do you need them? I think it is easy to recall them from your old text book.
:D
 
G

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the basic and advanced maths , you are all learn from high school and college.
the important thing is trying to apply what you learned to this game- poker
and trying to use all these maths tools to solve the real question.

So I have a bunch of links for basic and advanced maths classes , do you need them? I think it is easy to recall them from your old text book.
:D

Yea the basic I got but the correct play by increasing the number of tables was a bit drift. What was the basic equation for that plus a brief logic explanation (without sounding too dumb if that ship hasn't sailed already :p )

Also I posted a question if you think it is an okay decision to take shot at 5NL (3BI limit) as this would help boast the rake faster and I did have 21 BI for that level.

But this is now a past question i guess bc I have got in 530 hands already and am under $5.12 but they were annoying suck out, 2 aces cracked lmao!

I did manage to get in $1.77 of rake though... planning to continue for the weekend and if it doesn't work out then back to grinding 2NL... sounds okay to you?

Edit: 2$ of rake and 1 BI under sadly but I guess a little variance is normal in every session right
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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Yea the basic I got but the correct play by increasing the number of tables was a bit drift. What was the basic equation for that plus a brief logic explanation (without sounding too dumb if that ship hasn't sailed already :p )

Also I posted a question if you think it is an okay decision to take shot at 5NL (3BI limit) as this would help boast the rake faster and I did have 21 BI for that level.

But this is now a past question i guess bc I have got in 530 hands already and am under $5.12 but they were annoying suck out, 2 aces cracked lmao!

I did manage to get in $1.77 of rake though... planning to continue for the weekend and if it doesn't work out then back to grinding 2NL... sounds okay to you?

Edit: 2$ of rake and 1 BI under sadly but I guess a little variance is normal in every session right

I am afraid unable to answer since there is no information about how you doing @NL5.

in this case, any answer makes no sense.
 
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Grinder888

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I am afraid unable to answer since there is no information about how you doing @NL5.

in this case, any answer makes no sense.

tbh I'm doing much worse than I expected. But its just very annoying beats, something I face at 2NL as well at times, which usually gets even out over a large number of hands. But still cant help feel I'm bleeding chips here.

Here is a snapshot of 832 hands

6jj4ll.png


Doing a post session analysis right now and will be posting some of the big hands in hand analysis to see if I played them right.
 
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