My morning delemma? odds? fold? all-in?
two very good thread have been posted by T1riel and Tenbob (see below links) about going all-in when there are 3 or 4 people in the hand that could call or have already.
tenbob: $100 live freezeout
T1riel : What if episode 8
There have been arguement made for both call or folding in both situations and I can see both sides of the situations. Both are early in a tournament. I like to live beyond the first couple of hands myself but...
Here is my delemma and where I am getting confused by some answers. I am looking at how likely you are to win the hand you are playing and considering the number of player in the hand around me.
In Tenbob's situation you have a straight and flush draw to the royal but have to call an all-in with 3 people in front of you going all-in already. By using a poker calculator I can not find a situation where you are more than about a 44% chance to win the hand overall and people are saying bomb away. I see all the outs but are they all good in multiperson play? Your odds
are more in the 32-38% range to win this hand 4 way. Is it still worth calling?
In T1's you have a raise to 200, reraise to 500, reraise to 1000 and you have AA in the BB. People are saying fold here even though you are the first to push all-in and you have the best possible starting hand. The worse case you could be against is three hands that are suited to give you a 44% chance to win? Most instances you are are closer to 53-60% favorite to win. There are some who still think it is best to fold.
What is the difference and where are we getting our poker wires crossed to what is the correct play here? I know there is never a truely right play except the winning one, when hind sight is 20/20.
What is making some of us play a hand when we are no better than 44% to win the hand and folding another when that is the worse odds we could get? This has been stumping me all morning. The only answer I can come up with is trying to do math with multi person pots and determining odds to the winning hand.
How do we adjust odds and play to determine the correct decision in large multi player pots? I really have only gotten better at this by setting up situations in the calculator and messing with them to know what is best.
Anyone else have an easy way to practice or determine the odds of playing multi person hands.