Medium pocket pairs facing 3-Bet

T

thebigslade

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Hello all,

Something I've been having trouble with at 10nl is facing a 3-bet OOP with medium pocket pairs. For example, opening 88 in MP and facing a 3-bet from CO/BTN. I don't like flatting and x/f to any c-bet, because it seems like a losing play in the long-run.

If villain has a high 3-bet stat or low fold to 4-bet, I'll probably come over the top. Is 4b/fold the best option in these positions? Example is below.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 52)
SB: 99.2 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.51, PFR: 21.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 92)
UTG: 198 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 185.1 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (CO): 121.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 8:spade:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold

BTN wins 7.5 BB

Any thoughts?
 
Keith_MM

Keith_MM

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its the first 3bet you've seen in 52 hands so he's likely to be 3betting a tight range. you've just about got odds to set mine him profitably here as he is likely to pay you off when you hit your set ...whereas most button raises can't be set mined profitably as their range is so wide that they don't pay off.
 
S

SwiftHax

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I don't like much aggression, but when against button 3-bet I'm calling and folding the flop unimproved if I know that he/she will give good implied odds to draw a set.

Fold to 4-bet is indeed the stat you should be looking at. Just make sure you size them properly.
 
Staneff

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With middle pairs u`d better see the flop before u choose to make a move. Betting pre flop can always get overbet and end up with fold. Getting re-reaised makes u feel uncertain and playing aggressive can end up with a big lose of chips.
Play safe, trap aggressive players.
 
dd_decker

dd_decker

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Best to just fold in this kind of situation, methinks....
 
Thinker_145

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I am calling this 100% because the size of the 3-bet isn't large enough and the stacks are deep.
 
U

Ubercroz

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I was reading some responses, and had some disagreements with some.

Stacks are not deep here, effective 100bb deep.

If you call you are going to be OOP to the 3better. So you need to have a solid read on this guy to call here.

If you call you are not going to make a set here often enough to be profitable, even if you capture his entire stack when you get your set.

Folding is the right move here, unless you have a read that would tell you to deviate from folding.
 
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cosyglo

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I think it depends on your own personal choices, with 88 OOP I'd be inclined to call or fold, I don't think I'm ever 4-betting someone who hasn't 3-bet in 52 hands.
On the button he likely has TT+, AJ+ so if you hit your set they will likely pay you off big time if they have an over-pair. Also if its a pretty blank board you may be still be ahead of the over cards.
 
Keith_MM

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I think it depends on your own personal choices, with 88 OOP I'd be inclined to call or fold, I don't think I'm ever 4-betting someone who hasn't 3-bet in 52 hands.
On the button he likely has TT+, AJ+ so if you hit your set they will likely pay you off big time if they have an over-pair. Also if its a pretty blank board you may be still be ahead of the over cards.
I think thats far too wide a range for him . more likely to be QQ+ and i'm not stacking off with Q K or A on the flop . But still think that I'd get paid off enough to make this a profitable set mine.
 
akaRobbo

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At 10NL usually people aren't 3-betting light. Normally its at least AKo+. If he is 3-betting light then it will be obvious, villain will have done it many times before and you will be able to pick up on it. OOP, this is a fold for me.

Its 10NL, you dont need to be thinking this deep about the game, your winnings will come in much easier spots. Just fold.
 
T

thatgreekdude

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middle pairs are tricky to play especially OOP, you'll get better spots than this to set mine, just fold and wait for a better spot
 
John A

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Call, and play some poker. :) But seriously, it's a small 3-bet, and you're not deep, but you have a reasonable hand that has some post flop play ability. You can call and lead into him, which at these stakes I don't think people will exploit you. You can c/c dry flops and bet/fold the turn. There are other options. You probably have at least 40% equity against his 3-bet button range, although he hasn't 3-bet you yet. It's hard to say exactly what someone's range here that hasn't 3-bet you yet will be, but just folding that equity is not the best option long term.

Don't 4-bet fold. Even though you'll have a tight 5-bet jam range, it's better to try and play some of these positions, and experiment with different lines against different opponents.
 
akaRobbo

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Call, and play some poker. :) But seriously, it's a small 3-bet, and you're not deep, but you have a reasonable hand that has some post flop play ability. You can call and lead into him, which at these stakes I don't think people will exploit you. You can c/c dry flops and bet/fold the turn. There are other options. You probably have at least 40% equity against his 3-bet button range, although he hasn't 3-bet you yet. It's hard to say exactly what someone's range here that hasn't 3-bet you yet will be, but just folding that equity is not the best option long term.

Surely if someone you don't know is 3-betting you when you're OOP the best thing to do is to fold a medium picket pair? Getting poor odds to set mine too if the stacks aren't deep? If any cards 10 or higher are on the flop were folding to any c-bet as it's easily in his range, were drawing to 2 outs if that happens. Like I said, 90% of people aren't 3-betting light at 10NL.
 
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Ubercroz

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I really hate calling a 3bet to an unknown out of position. It just sucks, especially when the unknown 10nl players 3bet range is likely pretty tight. There are just better places to play against him.
 
Thinker_145

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100BB is a deep stack relative to the 6BB raise that we are facing. The tighter the opponent's range the better it is to call since hitting a set against AA and KK mostly pays off big even OOP. You just gotta make a big re-raise on the flop if there is a flush or straight draw as you wanna avoid a scare card for an over pair on the turn. If he calls your flop re-raise then he is pot committed with 100BB.
 
transformpoker

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If you're against a well-playing and balanced opponent, then this is actually a fairly complex question that should take into consideration a number of variables: your opening size, your opening range of hands, your opponent's re-raise size, and the number of players yet to act after the re-raise. The full answer, insofar as that is possible without the use of quantum computing, could easily be the size of most poker books.

A birds-eye view of the entire dynamic is that this opponent's re-raise size from this position is going to force you to call or 4-bet, i.e. defend in some way, with about 20-25% of your open-raising range; otherwise, your opponent's re-raise is automatically profitable.

The reason that the above defense frequency, that 20-25%, is a range and not exact number is twofold. First, if we call, then our particular hand has post-flop equity which depends on our opponent's re-raising range. The more equity we have when we call, the more often we can get away with calling. Of course, we're still out of position post-flop, so if you're bad at realizing your equity, then you might be best off playing as tight as possible: tight enough to avoid giving a good player an auto-profiting 3-bet and to avoid borderline decisions out of position. Even if our opponent shows us aces, it might be worth it to set-mine in some circumstances, though rarely out of position and below 140BB stacks, give or take - again the "give and take" has to do with the ranges of the players involved. Secondly, the players yet to act have some shared responsibility to defend against this player's re-raise, so it's not as simple as saying "Oh he's risks 9 to win 13.5, so we simply take XYZ action set".

All remaining players have different motivations: different pot odds, different positions, and different stack sizes. Also, you'll need to consider over-lapping frequencies. For example, if the small blind 4-bet in this hand, then how does the BB's "defending" distribution change? Is it about defending the 4-bet now, or are we still worried about the button player's 3-bet and thinking that the player in the SB is trying to exploit the button? Should we counter-exploit everyone by 5-betting all-in. Head explode.

The simpler way to look at this spot for 10nl and for now is that you have 2 huge factors that have you leaning toward a fold. First, you will have a very difficult time realizing equity with 88. Unless you flop a set, you're seeing at least one over-card to eights on the board 88% of the time. That means you're going to be playing a guessing game wherein your opponent controls the bet sizing and frequencies. Not a lot of fun! Secondly, players at 10nl usually either bluff far more frequently than optimal or far less frequently than optimal. 50 hands isn't enough to say one way or another about this particular player, but the population of players in general at 10nl are passive players who do not 3-bet a range against which 88 has enough equity to call pre-flop given these stack sizes. They're simply too tight and 88 is simply too weak, so fold.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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its the first 3bet you've seen in 52 hands so he's likely to be 3betting a tight range. you've just about got odds to set mine him profitably here as he is likely to pay you off when you hit your set ...whereas most button raises can't be set mined profitably as their range is so wide that they don't pay off.


We'd have to put him on JJ+ I guess since he has a tight range. I never really thought about the whole button being wider concept so he wouldn't pay us off perhaps that's why the pro's fold medium/low pp OOP because it's not profitable. Funny it's all coming together the picture :)

But I guess against ppl who are 10 and under vpip we can still make a profit out of them but its still too early to tell what this opponent is since only 52 hands isn't much to go by.

Perhaps he's making a play with suited connectors which I sometimes do from late position and go more polarized and trap the opponent. And I guess playing medium/low pp OOP is a higher risk of coolered.
 
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Keith_MM

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We'd have to put him on JJ+ I guess since he has a tight range. I never really thought about the whole button being wider concept so he wouldn't pay us off perhaps that's why the pro's fold medium/low pp OOP because it's not profitable. Funny it's all coming together the picture :)
as you move up you can start 3bet bluffing with your low pairs since button is stealing with a wide range and can't call a raise and if they come back at you with a 4bet its easy to dump your low pairs and it merges your 3bet range helping to get value with your high PPs . at 2 and 5nl its suicidal as villains don't fold to 3bets enough
 
LgBassMan

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At 10NL usually people aren't 3-betting light. Normally its at least AKo+. If he is 3-betting light then it will be obvious, villain will have done it many times before and you will be able to pick up on it. OOP, this is a fold for me.

Its 10NL, you dont need to be thinking this deep about the game, your winnings will come in much easier spots. Just fold.

+1 on this, fold for me as well, good explanation.
 
H

hffjd2000

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Your stack is so deep. You can still play around and not hurt your stack much.
You dont know, this might be the hand that will double you up.
 
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