Is my math correct here?
I'm not really looking for - you should have folded pre-flop and stuff like that I'm looking to understand pot odds
better. I think my math is correct, but I'm not sure.
OK here's the situation...
.25/.50NL Full Ring Game
Effective Stks are $25.00
I'm on the button with 4d7d - It limps to me 4 ways to me and I limp in wanting to see a cheap flop (already getting 5.5-1 on a call - right?). The BB raises to $4.00 (wow big raise my friend) I put him on AA-JJ & AK AQs maybe down to 88 and he just wants to steal the limpers bets, plus the blinds. I was going to fold and then everyone calls. The SB folded before so if I call it will be the last bet before the flop. I think and decide to call hoping for a huge flop seeing $20 in the pot already before my call. If not I can get away from my hand very easily. The flop hit 8d4s10d - now I have a pair and a flush draw and a back door straigh draw. The BB bets out $8 - to me it looked like a very weak c-bet. It folded to me and I pushed all in for my remaining $21.00. If I'm up against AA, KK, QQ, or JJ then I'm a coin flip with 2 cards to come. I knew I would only get called by AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. So I know he will call with those hands, but with his weak c-bet looked like AK and AQs. I figure he will fold 50%+ of the time and then if he calls I'm still a coin flip and with $32 in the pot...
I'm getting 2.52-1 on a my money if he calls and I'm only a 2.28-1 underdog. Is pushing correct here? Remember I only have $21 left in my stk looking at $32 in the pot. Is this a positive EV move?
I also wanted to know if all my math is correct. Could someone please take the time to let me know if it is correct or help me understand better where my math is incorrect and an easy or more accurate way of coming up with the correct math.
How I got my math...
4 limpers all call $4, the BB raised to a total of $4 and I called for $4 = $24 pre-flop
BB - bet $8 on the flop taking pot to $32
I had a decent idea that he would call and a chance he would fold. If he folds I win if he calls I'm betting $21 to win $74 (74/21 = 3.52-1= 2.52-1 on my money)
I have a pair and a flush draw if he has AA-JJ like I think he does I'm vs. an over pair. I have 9 flush outs, and 5 2 pair/trip outs = 14 outs or 2.28-1 underdog (I also have back door outs if the turn is a 9 or 6).
So if I'm getting 2.52-1 on my money, but I'm only a 2.28-1 dog pushing or calling his push is the correct +EV move over the long run correct or am I missing something?