Massive Overbets

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Stowie101

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So I'm playing .25/.50 last night and was heads up in a hand. No crazy bets until the river, which made three hearts on the board. We both had about $60 behind us and the pot was $4. Dude let out for $17. I had top pair and top kicker, but I folded. There were no straight draws, no paired board, but a flush could've gotten there on the river. But if he had a flush, why would he make such a massive bet? Hoping I had a smaller flush? I would think he'd wanna get some value. Even if he had two pair, trips, wouldn't he want to get some value? Did he have squadoosh?
 
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kmichaels

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I think that if he had a monster and wanted a call from someone betting 4x the pot size is too much. I don´t believe he made a bluff, because he pushed too many money and someone could have a flush and he would easily be beaten. He definitely had something and better than your hand.
 
dd_decker

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I think that if he had a monster and wanted a call from someone betting 4x the pot size is too much. I don´t believe he made a bluff, because he pushed too many money and someone could have a flush and he would easily be beaten. He definitely had something and better than your hand.

Remember this is heads up, no other possible callers...

It seems that he was simply trying to steal the pot with a huge overbet. Maybe it has worked for him in the past. BUT.... maybe he sensed by your betting that you had something like top pair and might call a big bet feeling like it was a bluff, when he actually caught the flush. You'll never know, but I lean towards the bluff, maybe 60%-40% that it was a bluff....
 
MediaBLITZ

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Its only one of two things - either he had it and wanted you to think it was a bluff (resulting in you calling - he hopes), or it actually was a bluff to buy the pot (wow - just stupid). You fold and keep an eye on him to determine if he is crafty or stupid and how you are going to exploit his excess either way.
 
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heAdstroMan

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easy fold, people rarely bluff with over bets.
 
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Stowie101

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Ya, I think he was being sneaky. Stupid on his part though, IMO. I'd rather win another $2 or so then get nothing. And who knows, maybe I re-raise him and he wins more. On the other hand, pretty easy decision to fold my hand when he did that.
 
NvrBlufn

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I believe he probably had the flush. It is an awful attempt at gaining value from a big hand when you played way too weak to build the pot the right way.

Poor play, probably a poor player (think long-term EV from making moves like this...) --> Anyways it makes sense why the pot was so small if he was on a draw. Easy fold over small pot.

I think another part of the problem is the lack of interaction at a cash table online. You have no idea who you are sitting with, its just two cards on a monitor. It could be Bill Gates over there or just some young schmuck like me without a lot of money to burn. It is nice when you know what kind of level the person is playing at mentally. If the guy tips $17 every time he gets a pizza or a cab ride he probably doesn't think much about shipping it off to you as part of some outrageous fun online. There are people like that who gamble just for the game of it not to make any living but just to punk people in hands and feel like a pro.

Personally I have been going with the strategy in our live cash games of making tricky value bets on the river when I am bluffing. I try to make it seem like I want a call when I really don't, choosing a bet size that is within their calling range throughout the hand. If I find the right threshold people will fold especially if I have the lead. Sometimes I get called by a schmedium strength hand, then I know I should have bet a little more...but over time I think this will limit my losses due to bluffing and make me harder to read as an unpredictable opponent. FYI my overbets are about 50/50 but never 4x the pot. Why bet 4x the pot when 2x gets the same job done?! That guys a fool
 
lulu pk

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That was a monster or total air,you never now.I sometime over bets the monster hands makes like bluff,sometime people call whit only A high or one pair...
 
redcross

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Its hard to say which way to go, it always seems like when you don't overbet to get them out, they hit their draw. I guess you just have to keep an eye out for the draws when you don't overbet and hope and pray none of them come. For example when you hit trips and raise substantially and they call. Just eye the flushes and straights.
 
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Massive over bets get called, especially if they look like a common bluff spot. Example from this morning: Effective stacks 125bb, I open raise pot from the button with TT, bb calls. flop 25T - heart flush draw, villain checks, I bet pot, Villain calls. Turn K non heart, Villian checks, I min bet in an attempt to induce a raise. Villain calls. River bricks with non heart 8. Villain checks. I shove, villain calls with KQ. I could have bet like 1/2 pot and gotten a call too.
 
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rumsey182

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timing matters a lot when these sorts of things happen, generally the more concerned they are about what you have they usually will take a little more time ( not always so you can't assume that 100% the time) and the inverse generally is true the snap tend to be it when stuff hits to some extent, more it polarizes it between the nuts and just total crap so the timing and a little info on the person can really give you a clear picture here because it shows he has already made his mind up. Every now and then a snap when stuff completes, like say just a st8 or something maybe like a gutter (depends on texture clearly) it is a huge sign he cant have anything at all (again same thing he isnt thinking about what we could have so he has made up his mind he is doing it almost before the card is shown)

When your playing HU this is where you can gain a monster edge on someone when you pick up on if they are doing any of this. This is one of those situations when if you are playing a lot of tables it is really hard to know what to do

as to the OP, i may just call to confirm what he has but it depends a lot it is marginal either way. The person who said weak play generally equals weak players is very much correct on this
 
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rumsey182

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Massive over bets get called, especially if they look like a common bluff spot. Example from this morning: Effective stacks 125bb, I open raise pot from the button with TT, bb calls. flop 25T - heart flush draw, villain checks, I bet pot, Villain calls. Turn K non heart, Villian checks, I min bet in an attempt to induce a raise. Villain calls. River bricks with non heart 8. Villain checks. I shove, villain calls with KQ. I could have bet like 1/2 pot and gotten a call too.
great point at some times you can overbet and make a huge pot out of it depends on a lot of factors but there are plenty of times that someones range is inelastic and you could overbet shove or bet 1/4 the pot and get the same frequency basically of calls and folds so clearly betting as big as possible has a lot of value to it but the key is nailing when to vary and i can't explain that in words very well
 
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ezevan1022

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9x out of ten this is going to be a near nut hand.
 
blueskies

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Why do ppl open to 9bb with AA in early position? Some folks just don't bother to disguise their hand. Because they would call an oversized bet with TP, they assume others will as well.
 
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ahol27

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I think he had the flush and was being sneaky. Steal doesn't make sense there, and he was probably thinking win big or win nothing.
 
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i also think folding was the right thing in this situation-
he may have been bluffing, but I doubt it. It is more likely that he had you beat in my opinion. people do like to overbet big hands sometimes.
I would fold and move on- no use calling off in that spot
 
MediaBLITZ

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Why do ppl open to 9bb with AA in early position?

Because it smells like JJ or AK - or everything is getting called PF anyway.
It will make some other players think, "So you don't want a call?"
 
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cleanslate

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Overbets happen all the time with online poker. I've noticed it's a regular thing. Also, I've seen many bluffs with overbets. I've called many of them and sure enough they were bluffing. Only once or twice have I called an overbet and they had me beat.
 
blueskies

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Because it smells like JJ or AK - or everything is getting called PF anyway.
It will make some other players think, "So you don't want a call?"

Well he did manage to win 6 cents and proudly flashed his AA. Good work.

I can see doing it if he's been raising 36c consistently (4NL), but that was his first.

But anyway, it was a rhetorical question on my part. This 36c guy is overbetting for the same reason as the other guy, hoping for some over-smart guy to make a hero call.

Surely he can't be overbetting like that if he wants a call, right? Wrong.
 
NvrBlufn

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Well he did manage to win 6 cents and proudly flashed his AA. Good work.

I can see doing it if he's been raising 36c consistently (4NL), but that was his first.

But anyway, it was a rhetorical question on my part. This 36c guy is overbetting for the same reason as the other guy, hoping for some over-smart guy to make a hero call.

Surely he can't be overbetting like that if he wants a call, right? Wrong.


I've seen this problem playing zone poker at Bovada and it is one of the biggest reasons I have stopped playing it. I feel like the constant shipping you from table to table makes people get wildly loose and frisky.

If you are playing a similar variant of the game or multi-tabling low stakes I could see the same problem occurring. No matter what you will encounter many bad players at that level. The kinds of players who have no clue what they are doing most of the time (& definitely not the kinds of players that would spend hours and days on poker forums and strategy sites, who at least own a few books, and know the various factors that are going on with the game). Chances are they've been losing too many hands and they want to double up quick to help chase their losses.
 
supernuts25

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it is a large bet i hear what people are aying about value bet. but online your better off to bet like that i think more times than not youll get a caller. and it makes up for the value bets by a long shot. and thats probably y he did that i see more and more players doing this. so many curious little fishes that will pay u off. i think they should pay attention thoughj as if u notice your up against a good player then value bet
 
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The worse the player is, when they make those bets on the river they always have it. TopTop is never good there. I mean who bluffs 17 to win 4. no good player ever does that, hence he was a fish and had the goods.
 
ccocco

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for me it was a bluff, because if I had colored him out would have to value your hand, taking home more money in the pot, your bet would have to match. and get you more money
 
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chauncey274

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I have no idea if it's a bluff or not, I don't know the player, but considering that it was a lower stakes table and the way it played out I would be pretty confident he had the nuts.

And lets think about this differently.

He could have bet half the pot. 2 bucks. And the other player might call half the time, earning an average of a dollar per river bet with the nuts.

However he bet 17, meaning that if he's called only 1/10 of the time, he's still earning 1.7 dollars per play on average. And at that low limit it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see 1/10 calling. He has the added bonus that it "feels fishy".

It's probably not the brightest play ever, but if you can get it to work when you think you're up against a decent hand, I think it could be profitable.
 
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aznman08

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Well in this scenario you really have to be highly certain that he is doing this on a bluff. He's betting $17 into $4 pot which makes it $21 pot and $17 to call giving 1.8-1 odds meaning you have to be right 80% of the time. Not to mention that you only have Top pair/Top kicker which means he could even have bottom two pair and still beats you (bit of a stretch).
 
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