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dumpy620_84
Rock Star
Silver Level
Ive been debating this with a friend, been wondering about others' opinions.
say you are at a 1/2 or 2/4 game. you hold 99 in middle position. the person to your right bets 5 BB preflop. you call. (full table btw)
flop comes 25T rainbow.
if he holds AK/AQ the flop completely missed and you have the best hand.
if he holds TT-AA you're screwed.
if the person is pretty tight you can assume he will raise here with TT-AA, and AQ/AK.
according to %s, about 47% of his raises will be with AQ/AK and 53% will be with TT-AA.
if you encounter this situations 20x a day and you fold everytime you dont hit a set, you are folding the best hand much too often. so ~9 hands out of 20 you make a fold because you arent sure if he has AK/AQ or a high PP where you are a huge dog.
if you are right and reraise and get him to fold here you will only win the continuation bet and his preflop bet. if you are wrong you lose 5x BB preflop, and 22 BB post flop (at a 1/2 table thats ~22 in the pot on the flop, and a continuation bet of ~15, and your reraise of ~42 equalling roughly 22 BB)
you have to be right 66% of the time to break even. but if you can pick your spot once a day and be right nearly every time, your daily profit goes up by almost 10% assuming you average 100-110 BB/Day ($200-220/day at 1/2 is my average)
some outside opinions would be welcomed here, i see enormous potential if you could get your reads down. my friend thinks its too risky
so in making that read, what are some crucial factors you look at? should this just be an automatic fold every time?
say you are at a 1/2 or 2/4 game. you hold 99 in middle position. the person to your right bets 5 BB preflop. you call. (full table btw)
flop comes 25T rainbow.
if he holds AK/AQ the flop completely missed and you have the best hand.
if he holds TT-AA you're screwed.
if the person is pretty tight you can assume he will raise here with TT-AA, and AQ/AK.
according to %s, about 47% of his raises will be with AQ/AK and 53% will be with TT-AA.
if you encounter this situations 20x a day and you fold everytime you dont hit a set, you are folding the best hand much too often. so ~9 hands out of 20 you make a fold because you arent sure if he has AK/AQ or a high PP where you are a huge dog.
if you are right and reraise and get him to fold here you will only win the continuation bet and his preflop bet. if you are wrong you lose 5x BB preflop, and 22 BB post flop (at a 1/2 table thats ~22 in the pot on the flop, and a continuation bet of ~15, and your reraise of ~42 equalling roughly 22 BB)
you have to be right 66% of the time to break even. but if you can pick your spot once a day and be right nearly every time, your daily profit goes up by almost 10% assuming you average 100-110 BB/Day ($200-220/day at 1/2 is my average)
some outside opinions would be welcomed here, i see enormous potential if you could get your reads down. my friend thinks its too risky
so in making that read, what are some crucial factors you look at? should this just be an automatic fold every time?