Luck

Just wanted to start a discussion about luck and see what people do when facing the choice between hoping to luck out and get a better hand, or folding the cards.

You all know these situations, where you have a flash draw, or street draw and are waiting for the last card to turn out the one you want desperately, however, your opponent raises too much, and you have to choose now - if you call, you might lose everything, but you can win much more, if you don't call - you already invested quite a lot of chips.

Let's discuss how you play in such events. What are you paying attention to?

Maybe there are people who would discard the cards immediately if there is nothing at the flop? Or maybe after river?

Please factor in the loose and tight play styles, and also - multi table tournaments and single table games.

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Personally, I more often than not do call and hope to get lucky. Why? Well, I do know that it is a bad strategy, because the number of lucky draws is less than number when your required card doesn't show up. But, I reason that without risking everything - there is no chance to win anything, sometimes everyone has to risk it. (if you play too tight - the opponent can use it to steal your bets)

Luck is irrelevant/non-existent. Thinking in terms of luck isn't really helpful.

You should be aware that there are options other than call or fold when you have a draw.

If you are drawing just to get lucky you will lose in the long run. Your decision should be based on many things: stack size, your table image, action of other players, etc. When you start playing gut feelings or the wish to just get there it is time to stop or find another game.

At a distance of every decision brings a pretty accurate certain amount of money. Luck needed where havent distance, whether big MTT or game is not bankroll. But everything else with proper BRM it is worthless.

Luck is a immediate manifestation of probability. It is only perception. Throw away luck if you want to make money!

It is not about luck, it is about pot odds. That is how you decide if you want to chase draws, you should read an article about it because I have a feeling you have not heard of pot odds.

In position, vs. the right guy, and with good implied odds, I'll gamble. Otherwise I fold.

Well, let's go with examples then.

You have 10K, and the flop is JQ3. You are in open street draw - both directions. Get A - you have street, get 9 - you have street.

Speaking with odds, its 8 chances. There was a table of % somewhere in the Internet about the chances.

At turn, the card is added - K. Now, you have a pair and a street draw still remains.

So, someone with higher stack than you raises a lot. If you call and lose - you are out.

Would you call?

It is a fold but it depends mainly from the size of the pot and how much chips you should give for the call.

You should fold, because mostly you will loose much more than you can win. You can call little pots with a draw, but when you have to decide if you call a big pot you should fold even when you look at the percentage you will loose.

As I like to say on a draw-heavy board when I bet and opponent ponders a call. "Don't chase what you can't catch. " Yes, you might luck out and bust a player or double up in a cash game. But unless you're playing heads up post-flop, and have good pot odds, or even implied odds to justify calling with a straight or flush draw, ( you pretty much need pot odds over 2:1 to call). Flush - 9 outs, or approx 35% chance of making a flush by the river. Open-ended straight - 8 outs. or 31 %. If you're in position, and you get anything more than 2.5:1 pot odds, by all means, call. If you hit, you'll win a big pot. If you lose, well, you didn't have a made hand anyways. There's always the risky option of trying a BIG bluff if the villain checks to you on the river.

Before you do try this next time, go read up on pots odds and you'll learn when and when not to chase a drawing hand.

there is something called pot odds, and that gives one the chances one has so one can estimate if keeps betting or fold,

for instance, in a pot of let´s say 10000 chips and with a draw flush in the river one has 9 cards over 40 (against three players, right?) then let´s say one has the ace too, so one has 3 more outs, then one has 12 over 40 or 30% chances os winning,

if one of the villain of 5000 chips and nobody else pays then one has to fold because 30% against 33% if one out 5000 chips in a new pot of 15000

but if the raise is less than 5000 chips then one has to bet because if hit the river (30%) then will get a pot valuable enough for the times one loses

Well, the theory is one thing - I know about the poker odds, believe me.

But, are you actually saying you fold every time someone raises or goes all-in? What does that make you? So, you do what? wait until the perfect monster hand like AA? Theoretical tight playing is cool and all that, but practically - show me one person that adheres to the prescribed strategy 100% of the time..

Everyone goes in to the pot and risks it, because without risk - there is no gain. The theory of the pot odds, chances and etc is all just a theory on how to prevent doing stupid mistakes and risk too much - it doesn't remove all the risk. Even if you wait until you got AA - you can still be beaten with someone who has 22 on the flop of 22A.

jj20002 said:

there is something called pot odds, and that gives one the chances one has so one can estimate if keeps betting or fold,

for instance, in a pot of let´s say 10000 chips and with a draw flush in the river one has 9 cards over 40 (against three players, right?) then let´s say one has the ace too, so one has 3 more outs, then one has 12 over 40 or 30% chances os winning,

if one of the villain of 5000 chips and nobody else pays then one has to fold because 30% against 33% if one out 5000 chips in a new pot of 15000

but if the raise is less than 5000 chips then one has to bet because if hit the river (30%) then will get a pot valuable enough for the times one loses

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Odds calculation doesn't exactly work like this. 12 out of 40 on the river would give you closer to 23 percent chance. The formula is a bit more complex than your rough calculations.

howleruz said:

Well, the theory is one thing - I know about the poker odds, believe me.

But, are you actually saying you fold every time someone raises or goes all-in? What does that make you? So, you do what? wait until the perfect monster hand like AA? Theoretical tight playing is cool and all that, but practically - show me one person that adheres to the prescribed strategy 100% of the time..

Everyone goes in to the pot and risks it, because without risk - there is no gain. The theory of the pot odds, chances and etc is all just a theory on how to prevent doing stupid mistakes and risk too much - it doesn't remove all the risk. Even if you wait until you got AA - you can still be beaten with someone who has 22 on the flop of 22A.

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What's the confusion here? I don't even ....:dontknow:

The question is whether the risk you took was worth it, simple as that.

Folding AA in A22 board is of course bull shit in 99% of cases because you should expect to best a lot of hands here, especially against fish.

Weaker aces, any twos ( naturally putting you on a big ace) will call an all in here.

In the example you gave it definitely depends on opponent aggression. But I personally I would fold there against an unknown with normal betting patterns and against a passive fish.

I would snap call an agro fish though. they can be doing this with a lot of BS that you already beat, and you still have like 16 percent vs 2 pairs or sets.

Also, just because you only have a draw does not mean you have to station and hope to hit something.

Some opponent are just frequently betting with air on the flop and then immediately giving up on the turn with nothing -common among TAGfish!, guys with taggish preflop stats but are nits postflop, this is called one and done cbetting, this characterized by high flop c-bet (75%++) with a sudden dip in turn c-bet into the lower 30s

Against, these guys, why not call the flop that likely missed them (T and J high flops come to mind) and see if they continue (the likely won't), if they don't, semi bluff float that turn.

And if you somehow get called, there's backup equity in your draw.

BTW, do this only in position only.....position is so important it's ridiculous. So many trickplays against tagfish arent even logically plausible when you are OOP.

Bottomline is, get tricky with your betting, but make sure all the indications are converging to get maximum fold equity backed up by some showdown equity.


P.S. Looking for a sensei of donk betting and leading in without initiative

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity. I never think I got lucky or unlucky. I think in terms of "did I play well enough to accumulate enough chips to withstand some crazy improbable occurrence or not?"