Low Limit Preflop Odds Question

Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
Hey everyone! I'm a new member but have referred to some threads on here quite often. I mostly play cash (both NL and Low Limit $3/$6) but occasionally will jump in a tournament. Anyways...

I play in a $3/$6 limit game at the local card room. It is almost always an extremely loose passive game, sometimes switching to a loose aggressive game for short times as a result of table tensions that may develop. For the most part, I have broken even playing in this game and have been looking for ways to change that to become a winning player.

I have been exploring preflop pot odds a little bit more and was wondering if this is pretty sound logic. I have determined (please correct me if I'm wrong!):

4:1 - suited connectors (45 thru JT) flop two pair or better OR a flush and/or straight draw

5:1 - suited one-gap connectors (35 thru QT) flop two pair or better OR a flush and/or straight draw

7:1 - suited cards flop two pair or better OR a flush draw

7:1 - unsuited connectors (45-JT) flop two pair or better OR straight draw.

11:1 - one-gap connectors flop two pair or better OR straight draw.

Since the game is so loose and multiple people are showing down regularly, I wanted to calculate the odds of each of the above hands flopping a big hand or a draw to a bigger hand, NOT including draws where only one of my hole cards is in play.

Using these odds, is it safe to assume that I should see a flop with any suited connectors (45 thru JT) as long as I've got 4:1 pot odds, any unsuited connectors if I've got 7:1 pot odds, etc.?

Any help is appreciated here, and again, please correct any odds or strategy if I'm incorrect. Thanks!
 
B

BomTombadil

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 1, 2013
Total posts
100
Chips
0
I'm no expert on limit, but I think you'll do better at a table like that to only play premium hands and don't limp in. Also, I would recommend Lee Jones book on low stakes limit holdem.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
I'm no expert on limit, but I think you'll do better at a table like that to only play premium hands and don't limp in. Also, I would recommend Lee Jones book on low stakes limit holdem.

True, but that's why I'm wondering if the odds I listed are correct. If they are, it will make sense and can be profitable to see a flop with a hand that is not premium.
 
G

GWU73

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Total posts
785
Chips
0
Those odds look mighty optimistic to me. I think the original "Super System" had some pretty good odds calculations in the back, done by Mike Caro. Also the books "Portable poker Pro" and "Secrets the Pros Wont Tell You About Winning Hold Em Poker" have excellent advice and stats.
 
J

jcdagenius

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
295
Chips
0
i mainly pay no limit but i still think playing to many hands will get you in trouble regardless of odds. i think you should play tag and trap people.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
i mainly pay no limit but i still think playing to many hands will get you in trouble regardless of odds. i think you should play tag and trap people.
Agreed. I think my main issue has been playing aggressively with top pair/strong kicker and getting called (not raised, mind you) down to the river with two pair.
I'm starting to think I need to adjust and play only two pair or better aggressively in a game that loose.
 
J

jcdagenius

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
295
Chips
0
I agree.....limit games cause a lot of bad beats due to odds and cheap prices to call. I would just wait for strong hands and play them aggressive. you can build a roll playing limit poker. also beware of not being able to bluff almost never which makes this game harder in a sense. we can never get a bad hand to fold mostly
 
G

GWU73

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Total posts
785
Chips
0
So this is 2 times this month I have had to go back and look at the question again. I looked on some other forums and saw calculations that matched yours. My only concern would be getting trapped with a baby flush draw or hitting the ignorant end of a straight wih small suited connectors. It seems like I have gotten bit enough times to be leery of low draws in limit.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
The rake is high: About 10% capped at $6 and $1 for promotions when the pot is $10+.

Regarding the baby flushes, GWU73, I'd imagine I'll have the winner most of the time and be able to take down a pretty big pot due to how loose the game is. It is a very loose but passive game, so if somebody is raising, I would probably just check/call down to the river if I suspect another flush. I'm glad you checked those odds. Suited connectors seem like the best hand in a game like that because you can't really trust a pair enough to play it aggressively or call raises, even if you've got a pair of Aces with a high kicker.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
Out of curiosity, I quickly calculated the odds of AKo flopping two pair or better, a four flush, or a straight. According to my calculation, you have no better than a 15:1 chance, or even as low as an 18:1 chance, which is worse than even unsuited one-gap connectors.

Does anyone know the odds of any given player at a table of 9 holding two pair or better on any given hand? I could not find it. I'm operating under the assumption that it takes two pair or better to win the hand down to the river most of the time, so I'd like to know the odds of a pair of Aces/high kicker getting beat.

Again, please correct me if I'm wrong. I ran the calculations rather quickly in this case.
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top