Originally Posted by CuttleFish
A bit of background for context:. I make my living reading people, negotiating and working with numbers. The main reason I do well for a living comes from having pretty good instincts. I'm 40 now and have been playing cards pretty much from about 5 yrs old. I started getting into Holdem about three years back and found that I was a decent player. I generally play 2/5 NL cash games and for the first 2 years or so would typically end a night with 2-3x what I started with.
More recently I have been reading more about odds, pot odds, implied odds, position, hand range etc etc etc. Now I am finding that the more I read and study up on the game, the worse I seem to be playing.
In essence, I have become a very conscious player whereas before it was a lot more instinctive.
My question is; do you think people can have a "natural" game without thinking through the odds every time? I know with golf, I was a decent golfer until I took lessons and then it all went to pot!
Would be very interested in the responses.
You probably wont believe this but its entirely possible you were on a 3 year heater (lucky patch) and that's ended.
Live poker you are being dealt 20 or so hands per hour. Online its 70 per table. If I play 6 tables then that 420 per hour vs 20 live
So every hour of my online play is equal to 21 hours of your live play.
Its entirely possible to go on 20K hand heaters 10K hand heaters are standard and 50-100K hand heaters are not outside the realms of possibility.
Lets consider how many hours it takes you to play 10K hands.
so a 6 hour sessions every week week, means it takes 500/6 weeks to play 10K hands or just over 18 months
20K over 3 years.
Now lets look at online.
10000/420 = 23 hours
lets keep the 6 constant (although Id say online playters play more hours per week due to convenience)
So 10K = about month (personally I play about 30K in a month)
20K = 2 months
For me thats about 3 weeks vs your 3 years
Do I get 3 week heaters? Yes!
The problem live players have is that they just dont understand how many hands they need to play before their winrate begins to converge.. if you post samples of under 50K people will tell you that the sample is too small to have any meaning and even at 50K people say its just too small a sample to determine much. Realistically you need 100K+ hands before you can get a feel of your winrate.
Due to the speed at which hands are played online, swings last a few weeks, often only a few days. Live, this translates to months and years.
So its difficult to say what the cause is as we cant rule out the possibility that you have just got quite lucky for 3 years, because poker isnt really measured in time its measured in hands played.