Yes, but if we go with our read that we are, say a 60/40 favortie on the turn (since that last card is clearly a blank), don't we gain a BB everytime we bet and get called by a worse hand ? If we were to run the scenario 100 times, we would win .40 cents more 60 times and lose it 40 times, for a EV of 4$. Plus, if we end up even when we get raised (because villain is a complete fool, he knows we have a hand and are unlikely to get pushed off the pot by a bluff at this time): we would've called his bet anyway and lost that BB ?
Even if we call, there's a slight percentage, say 10% that villain is bluffing
, 30% he has a worse hand than us, and 60% he has us beat. So we figure that even if we call his raise, we are in the black, huh ? Secret answer, no.
We win 2BB 30% of the time (0,6BB), lose 2BB 70% (1,2BB) , win one BB 60% of the time (0,6BB) and lose one 40% of the time (0.4BB) for a -EV of 0.4BB. So, if we go by our read, it is better to check and call, than it is to bet here. This discounts any fold by villain. He doesn't seem to want to do so anyway.
On the other hand, this is all well and good if we approx. our chances of winning, but in this situation, how do we do so, as our odds
clearly dictactes what we should do (if we were a 70/30% favorite, maybe betting would become the best option). I can see that there's no definitive answer to my last question, but any pointers, any thoughts ?