Level 17 big stack tourny dilemma
This is a real situation from last nights 30k guaranteed at Poker Stars
It's the very late stages of the tournament and with over 400,000 chips I'm 4th with 40 players remaining out of a field of about 3100.I've been sitting at this table for 25+ hands and have a pretty good read on the talent. At this stage, most raised hands are won outright and I raise from early position with AKo.The table folds to the CO who shoves his entire stack of 600,000 chips.
My read on him. His enormous stack is not representative of his skill. He's a one trick pony who open shoves with any pair, any A9+, any AXs, any KQ, any e suited high cards QJs+. His range is as big as his chip stack. His OPR is about 12% with about 6% ITM.His success is based on a lot of luck and a lot of bad calls from equally poor players at the table. It's a miracle he got this far.
His read on me. I don't know if he's using any tracking software, but I've been agressive lately, having raised the 2 previous hands and won without a showdown.My success to this point has been based largely on open raises and loose calls from the blinds with good Pot odds
.If he's paying attention, there's no way he can put me on a hand as good as AK which makes the lower end of his range all the more likely.
Under ordinary circumstances, a call here is a no brainer, but concidering my almost equally huge stack, do I sacrifice an almost certain final table for a chance to double up to nearly a million chips? Winner takes $5000, if I go out here I walk away with about 60 bucks for 5 hours work.I could do nearly as well in a 1 table SnG.