This is a discussion on Late stage within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; I am wondering as to any type of rough formula for finding your probability of placing in the money if you do not play another
I am wondering as to any type of rough formula for finding your probability of placing in the money if you do not play another hand.
If you still have 125 players, you are in 23 place with 30 places paying. This is just an example for numbers sake. I would be working to keep my position in the paying field with this example , but as the numbers drop , staying in the money is given if you dont overplay.
So any ideas or comment on what you look at at this stage of the tourney.
Such a formula is probably impossible to find and/or use efficiently with that much people still in. You have to factor in that some stages have people busting out a lot faster than others (post bubble versus prebubble), the speed of your table, the way the blinds increase, the numbers of player left @ your table (assuming 10 max) because once it gets to 30ish you can be seated @ a short table and have your stack eaten by the blinds faster.
But I'd wager that not playing any hand/playing to squeeze in with 125 out of 30 paying places sitting 23rd is a gurantee for not cashing/cashing so small its negligeable. So, without any maths, I'd say the probability is pretty damn close to 0.
6th January 2008, 2:43 AM
Egon Towst [6,799]
Online Poker at: 35 sites
Game: HE, 5CD, 7CS
Don`t mean to be rude, but I think the whole line of thought is misconceived.
The real money is at the Final Table, and therefore you must keep playing and continue to improve your position, if at all possible. In most payout structures, scraping into the lowest places only just about repays your buyin and does not properly justify the time you have invested.
6th January 2008, 3:01 AM
Poker at: PokerStars
Game: Your sister
re: Poker & Late stage
What he said: Egon has a knack for the English langage that makes my long ranting useless with only a sentence or two.
10th January 2008, 3:12 PM
Online Poker at: bodog
Game: holdem, omah
Impossible to calcutlate. For now you are playing with well educated people and they will just blind you out.