Knowing when you are "ahead"

BBmanAAAKK

BBmanAAAKK

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Hey there CC, first time poster and Newbie to Poker looking for some solid advice.

I have been playing 0.02c NL Texas Hold'em for 2 months now and I'm in the red. I just realized today after watching hands of winning players in this limit and comparing my winning hands on PTR is that I severely under bet the pot - and give people odds to draw. Just the thought that a villain MIGHT hit his draw if he calls my bet discourages me to make the bet in the first place.

I play a tight game, raise premium hands and higher pairs pre-flop. Limp smaller pairs and suited connectors with the occasional funky hand when I'm closer to the button.

I check alot to showdown against calling stations HU to find out he either had air or something like middle pair very low kicker. The fact that a player like that plays so many hands gets me really worried, especially when the board gets wetter. I get really discouraged to keep firing when a player keeps check calling my bets.

I think anyone who calls me on the flop has a set or two pair when I bet in position and its checked back to me. And if a straight is possible, someone has got it (especially when I get re-raised). Its even worse when the board is paired, I automatically assume someone has a full house or trips. If a flush is a possibility, I think the villain has it.

I rarely ever get stacked or stack anyone else because of my bad bet sizing, and naturally my BR grinds down over time. Its got nothing to do with the size of my BR, I have enough BIs. It is the fear of being called down by something maybe better I'm trying to deal with.

Say I have KK post flop, and I'm HU, and a Ace is on the board, I usually freeze and hesitate to bet. "I know he won't fold, but he COULD have a ace/rag kicker so I will check" (this is the train of thought I have)

I do know that most of the time, checking and small betting is a sign of weakness, and alot of players pick up on the fact that I do this and bully me around. They also re-raise my small bets quite often multi-way which usually results in me folding. And quite often to my horror when the rest of the players go to showdown, I find I would of won the hand anyway.

I'm trying to figure out how one can assume that he is "ahead" and keep firing. I guess you can never know for sure and it is probably a very complex answer, you cant see your opponents cards. Therefore guessing the range will never ever be 100 percent accurate and you are going to dig a hole for yourself sometimes, this can't be helped.

Is there some sort of feel or intuition to knowing based on how quick he calls checks, etc, do you bet based on the board texture and VPIP? Or do I just need to grow a pair (quite literally) and just stab at it more often :eviltongu

Any advice would help! Thanks in advance.
 
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Jurn8

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Hey there CC, first time poster and Newbie to Poker looking for some solid advice.

I have been playing 0.02c NL Texas Hold'em for 2 months now and I'm in the red. I just realized today after watching hands of winning players in this limit and comparing my winning hands on PTR is that I severely under bet the pot - and give people odds to draw. Just the thought that a villain MIGHT hit his draw if he calls my bet discourages me to make the bet in the first place.

I play a tight game, raise premium hands and higher pairs pre-flop. Limp smaller pairs and suited connectors with the occasional funky hand when I'm closer to the button.

I check alot to showdown against calling stations HU to find out he either had air or something like middle pair very low kicker. The fact that a player like that plays so many hands gets me really worried, especially when the board gets wetter. I get really discouraged to keep firing when a player keeps check calling my bets.

I think anyone who calls me on the flop has a set or two pair when I bet in position and its checked back to me. And if a straight is possible, someone has got it (especially when I get re-raised). Its even worse when the board is paired, I automatically assume someone has a full house or trips. If a flush is a possibility, I think the villain has it.

I rarely ever get stacked or stack anyone else because of my bad bet sizing, and naturally my BR grinds down over time. Its got nothing to do with the size of my BR, I have enough BIs. It is the fear of being called down by something maybe better I'm trying to deal with.

Say I have KK post flop, and I'm HU, and a Ace is on the board, I usually freeze and hesitate to bet. "I know he won't fold, but he COULD have a ace/rag kicker so I will check" (this is the train of thought I have)

I do know that most of the time, checking and small betting is a sign of weakness, and alot of players pick up on the fact that I do this and bully me around. They also re-raise my small bets quite often multi-way which usually results in me folding. And quite often to my horror when the rest of the players go to showdown, I find I would of won the hand anyway.

I'm trying to figure out how one can assume that he is "ahead" and keep firing. I guess you can never know for sure and it is probably a very complex answer, you cant see your opponents cards. Therefore guessing the range will never ever be 100 percent accurate and you are going to dig a hole for yourself sometimes, this can't be helped.

Is there some sort of feel or intuition to knowing based on how quick he calls checks, etc, do you bet based on the board texture and VPIP? Or do I just need to grow a pair (quite literally) and just stab at it more often :eviltongu

Any advice would help! Thanks in advance.
dont limp
bet wider for value vs stations
board texture/opponents action are things you should consider when hand reading then act how you think you should play vs that range best
bet wider for value, bluff less at 2nl, profits ez game
 
Cafeman

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From reading your post I think you already know where your problems lie. I would say you need to follow through with those river bets when you have a real hand (TP or better), especially if you suspect you are HU with a calling station. Bet bigger when you hit. They don't always have it, just in the same way you don't. MW pots are scary, because ONE of those little buggers will have 2 pair or something, so only get involved when you have top 2 or more (if you want to be conservative). All of this is villain/board dependant.

Number one thing I learned to get passed 2nl was this... bet when you have it, fold when you don't. Do not be scared, because they WILL call with worse. Every now and then you're going to value own yourself, but overall you WILL be ahead if you have a hand! Oh and be patient.
 
Jurn8

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Number one thing I learned to get passed 2nl was this... bet when you have it, fold when you don't. Do not be scared, because they WILL call with worse. Every now and then you're going to value own yourself, but overall you WILL be ahead if you have a hand! Oh and be patient.
cbetting is extremely profitable at the super micros, alot of weak passive/weak tight villians will call and c/f or fold to cbets alot so this statement probs applies more to turn + riv IMO
 
Cafeman

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Yeah, I was cbetting around 70% at 2nl. I was talking more about not bluffing too much at 2nl - multiple barrels etc. Certainly my experience was that a lot of people play fit or fold on the flop.
 
Jurn8

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yeah i think i was up at like 80 but that was a long time ago and i understand the games have improved alot since then!
 
acky100

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Basically, dont limp, always raise, when you have a hand like top pair good kicker+ against the calling stations, bet until they play back at you, if they play back at you you must give them credit for it and fold.

read up on c betting, A high flops are great to c bet, as 90 percent of opponents will just fold then and there if they dont hold an ace.

dont limp at all, especially with suited connectors, dont even need to play them at the micro's apart from like TJ+ and even then just raise the likes of TJs when you're on the button, i wouldnt bother playing it from MP or anything.
 
Cafeman

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yeah i think i was up at like 80 but that was a long time ago and i understand the games have improved alot since then!
TBH I am only talking about 4 months ago when I first started playing online, so not much experience, and I only spent 1 month at 2nl before moving up to 5nl.

Basically, dont limp, always raise, when you have a hand like top pair good kicker+ against the calling stations, bet until they play back at you, if they play back at you you must give them credit for it and fold.
+1
 
BBmanAAAKK

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Thanks for the advice guys, I appreciate it alot.

I have another question, how many big blinds would you suggest to play with at this level. I'm thinking 100BB to 150BB.
 
Jurn8

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100BBs is standard and just put auto reload on if you play on sites with the option to
 
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fkucdaw0rld

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u can never 'know' your ahead just by intuition...you have to c-bet and protect urself when you actually catch...bet sizing is crucial to make sure you force out any draws, and if someone does call a large bet you can rule out some draws so if they do come out u can be pretty sure they dont have them....the most important aspect to it all is knowing ur opponents and what they're likely to play and chase, then bettting accordingly to play back at their styles....it's hard and you obviously never KNOW when you're good or not, but theres a lot of things u can do to have a pretty good idea where you stand
 
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1) Be patient
2) Pay attention to Position and try to play only when you are in position. Once you get better at making reads you can open up a little.
3) Raise pre flop in posiiton with solid hands.... Out of position play only with premium hands.
4) C-Bet... C-Bet.... C-Bet! Most at this level will not have the savy to re-raise without having you beat. Also many are not savy enough to catch on that you are a C-Bet machine :) and make a play.
5) dont be afraid to loose. Some times you win big hands because you lost a hand earlier. You have to give action to get action in poker so dont be afraid to call, bet, or raise when it does not make sense for villan to have one of the few hands that beat you.
Doyle Brunson says that to be a poker player you have to have "Guts" or "Courage" (one of the two.... I forget). This is still true.
 
rssurfer54

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I didn't see if anyone said this yet, but kk on an ace high board, you should check behind (when you have position, oop its more player dependent). This is not a leak, this is called a way ahead/ way behind spot.
 
BBmanAAAKK

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I have seen my game significantly improve since I have juiced up my betting alot. I think it is a matter of time before I can get out the deep red.

Unfortunately today I have suffered some bad beats on the river with the nuts losing up-to 4 buy ins. But I'm going to keep a positive attitude and stick with my A game, it should balance over time if I hopefully stick to it.

I'm starting to emotionally detach myself from my cashier without being reckless and getting too pissed when they suck out. I hope this a good sign and I would to thank you guys again for helping me conquering my fear of betting :cool:.
 
eberetta1

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I like your original way of playing, betting bigger just increases the rake you are paying. I try to be patient and wait til after the river to fire the big bets. Because you have the most info and no more cards can come up to hurt you.
If there is an ace on the board, it is only sensible to respect it if king is all you have. If you are wrong one time, you lose the work you have done for an hour. If you are right one time, you can in one minute earn one hours worth of work. I prefer to bet it when I have the better hand, and not earn it by relying on bluffing 70 percent of the time.
Good luck in your game.
 
Cafeman

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I like your original way of playing, betting bigger just increases the rake you are paying. I try to be patient and wait til after the river to fire the big bets. Because you have the most info and no more cards can come up to hurt you.
If there is an ace on the board, it is only sensible to respect it if king is all you have. If you are wrong one time, you lose the work you have done for an hour. If you are right one time, you can in one minute earn one hours worth of work. I prefer to bet it when I have the better hand, and not earn it by relying on bluffing 70 percent of the time.
Not being funny or anything, but is this a joke?
 
DarrylZero

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Sounds like ur on the right track doing some homework to get the machine running. How many hands have u logged? You will be amazed at how much u can develop ur game in just a 10k hand span in conjuction with some analysis and study etc. Pay close attention to the spots that make u most uncomfortable, u have more leaks than u think. I know I did before I started paying attn.

Experience will be a key factor in ur poker evolution to get that machine not only tuned but eventually hopped up to a solid winrate allowing u to kick that inner ultra-nit in the nuts like I did. :D GL
 
BBmanAAAKK

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Hi again,

I'm starting to find that the full ring tables at 2nl and 6 max are incrementally getting nittier, that or my imagination is playing tricks on me. I find this odd as I remember previously running into calling stations all the time before I improved my bet sizing. Even players with VPIP as high 73/2 just insta fold when I cbet on the flop. I can't seem to get any fishes stacks in or take them to value town.

I usually bet 75 percent to a pot size bet on every street. I try and enter tables with high Plrs/flop and pot size/stack But every time I have a hand. I seem to scare everybody off, and I don't get any action.

If I have a playable hand preflop, i bet 6 cents plus 2c of every limper. And 3bet only AA, KK, AK, and QQ, I sometimes min raise 10s and JJ if someone has raised before me.

I must be doing something wrong, I see fish all the time going all in with any trash against the other players. But when I get something playable, they always seem to make unconscious lay-downs.

Any advice is welcome

Till next time
 
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benevg

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if people are noticing that you play too nitty and actually fold against you every time, then the logical adjustment would be to start playing more hands. 3bet J9o next time, or raise with 87s. since they are going to fold anyway, those should be profitable.

poker is all about doing the opposite of what they expect, so if everyone is folding because you always have the goods, start betting even when you do not have it! :) after a while, people will notice that you are not always good, and will start playing back at you. that is the time to get paid with your bigger hands.
 
seanDCFC

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Not being funny or anything, but is this a joke?

He made me laugh anyway. He sounds like the type of player who min-bets the flop and turn with a good hand and bets huge on the river. I love having those players at the table, its so easy to play against.
 
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