Knowing when you are "ahead"
Hey there CC, first time poster and Newbie to Poker looking for some solid advice.
I have been playing 0.02c NL Texas
Hold'em for 2 months now and I'm in the red. I just realized today after watching hands of winning players in this limit and comparing my winning hands on PTR is that I severely under bet the pot - and give people odds
to draw. Just the thought that a villain MIGHT hit his draw if he calls my bet discourages me to make the bet in the first place.
I play a tight game, raise premium hands and higher pairs pre-flop. Limp smaller pairs and suited connectors with the occasional funky hand when I'm closer to the button.
I check alot to showdown against calling stations HU to find out he either had air or something like middle pair very low kicker. The fact that a player like that plays so many hands gets me really worried, especially when the board gets wetter. I get really discouraged to keep firing when a player keeps check calling my bets.
I think anyone who calls me on the flop has a set or two pair when I bet in position and its checked back to me. And if a straight is possible, someone has got it (especially when I get re-raised). Its even worse when the board is paired, I automatically assume someone has a full house or trips. If a flush is a possibility, I think the villain has it.
I rarely ever get stacked or stack anyone else because of my bad bet sizing, and naturally my BR grinds down over time. Its got nothing to do with the size of my BR, I have enough BIs. It is the fear of being called down by something maybe better I'm trying to deal with.
Say I have KK post flop, and I'm HU, and a Ace is on the board, I usually freeze and hesitate to bet. "I know he won't fold, but he COULD have a ace/rag kicker so I will check" (this is the train of thought I have)
I do know that most of the time, checking and small betting is a sign of weakness, and alot of players pick up on the fact that I do this and bully me around. They also re-raise my small bets quite often multi-way which usually results in me folding. And quite often to my horror when the rest of the players go to showdown, I find I would of won the hand anyway.
I'm trying to figure out how one can assume that he is "ahead" and keep firing. I guess you can never know for sure and it is probably a very complex answer, you cant see your opponents cards. Therefore guessing the range will never ever be 100 percent accurate and you are going to dig a hole for yourself sometimes, this can't be helped.
Is there some sort of feel or intuition to knowing based on how quick he calls checks, etc, do you bet based on the board texture and VPIP? Or do I just need to grow a pair (quite literally) and just stab at it more often
Any advice would help! Thanks in advance.