JB the kid grinds 5NL zone
[QUOTE=Jblocher1;2414657] Bleh.... -2BI session. This ones on me.
Thoughts on this spot?
effective stack size: 5 dollars
Hero's hand: 8s8d
UTG opens to 15c, fold, call (CO), hero calls OTB. Blinds fold
Flop: 85K rainbow with a club
UTG checks, CO checks, hero bets 30c, UTG calls, CO folds.
UTG checks, hero value bets 70c, UTG calls.
Villain open jams 3.75 dollars, hero?[QUOTE]
In terms of my personal analysis.... When villain opens UTG to 3x his range is essentially 22-AA/A10o+/JK+ (just what I have noticed for typical 5NL range thus far.
So I essentially set mine from my button after the CO call because when I hit, my implied odds
are pretty good because it's not too hard to get decent value 3 way to this flop, that on top of the fact I'm IP added extra incentive to flat.
So the flop comes K85 rainbow with the K of clubs. Now obviously that's a really awesome flop for 88... It can hit my opponents range with the K and possibly score me 2-3 streets of value. Based on opponents evaluated ranges there aren't many draws they can have. Villains will almost never have 67 or any straight draw at this point. Both villains check to me, and I contemplate a check back... To disguise my strength.... However because of the K on flop I determine it's likely one of my villains holds something like KJ/KQ/AK. With that being said only the UTG villain will usually have AK because CO would have 3 bet pre if he held it usually. So thinking I'm going to get at least one call.... I bet out 30c which is sized decently IMO... It's about 3/5 pot. Sure enough UTG calls, and CO folds. We currently feel great.
Now on the turn we get the 10 of clubs.... Now there are two clubs, but obv we are looking to get value out of flush draws because the majority of the time they are going to miss river. So when UTG checks to me.... I not only size my bet to get called by Kx... But I'm also sizing to get calls from any flush draws in villains range. He doesn't have many though, I'm giving him AQcc/AJcc both of which would have needed to x/c float the flop. Floats aren't all that common from what I have seen, the majority of players are just x/f'ing flops they miss. So villain checks to me and I value bet 70c which is also decently sized I think... Could maybe go a bit bigger and lean towards pot... But for the most part this targets villains Kx range portion.Villain calls again. At this point it looks to me like his range is heavily weighted towards KJ/KQ/KA. Then he also will call if he floated flop then picked up draws to the nut flush. I'm really not viewing that as all that likely, because it would have required villain to have floated flop with total air and it's plausible... But not that likely for most 5NL zone players. Then the river is the third club.... Our villain open shoves 3.5 dollars.... Ugh.... Villain must know he will only be getting calls from the very top of my range... Which is what I happen to have. But the question I was asking myself is "why would villain do this with the nuts?" Villain should size to get calls from the bulk of my range which is big kings and two pairs.... But the only hands that will call this are sets and flushes usually.... I don't have flushes within my range really... I have very few. So if villain holds a flush, the only hand that I have in my range that will call is for the most part... Flopped sets. However I don't have KK in my range because I flatted my button.... Therefore he targets 55/88/1010 when he has it. If he wanted value from me, why not size so he gets calls more often? I suppose villain also can plausibly hold 1010 as played, however I would assume he would x/r the turn when he hits or lead out... Not x/c because he loses value. Plus when he gets more money in the pot it makes it easier for him to GII on river and get called by worse. So his range is weighted against 1010 IMO.
So throughout this hand his range has had very few flush draws in it.... But can we really give credit on river? Can villain do this with KJ/KQ/AK and turn his hand into a bluff (a lot of them are pretty bad and I have seen that fairly often in my experience at zone)? I'm just having a pretty hard time giving him credit for having floated the flop with air... Just because it's uncommon. Usually that's done at 5Nl Zone with hands like A8/A5, so hands like bottom or middle pair, and then villains will fold to a turn bet if they don't improve. Though floats in a pure form have been rare.