Is it worth going all in for flush draw on turn in multi way pot?

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laimisj

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Is it worth going all in on the turn for flush draw in multi way pot?

Hello,

So I played this hand just right now and I wanted to ask is it worth risking all my stack on the turn for flush draw in a multi way pot? In this hand I had about ~27% chance to win and increase my stack almost three times.

Thank you for your answers.

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 127 BB (VPIP: 27.91, PFR: 20.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, hands: 43)
BB: 86 BB (VPIP: 37.21, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: 47 BB (VPIP: 39.39, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
Hero (CO): 71 BB
BTN: 37.5 BB (VPIP: 32.33, PFR: 27.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.89, Hands: 135)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 8 3 4
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (10 BB, 3 players) K
SB bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB, BTN raises to 34.5 BB and is all-in, SB raises to 124 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 60.5 BB and is all-in

River: (180.5 BB, 3 players) Q

SB shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)

Main Pot [113.5 BB]: (Pre 37%, Flop 94%, Turn 83%)
Side Pot#1 [67 BB]: (Pre 66%, Flop 94%, Turn 83%)

Hero shows 7 A (High Card, Ace)

Main Pot [113.5 BB]: (Pre 29%, Flop 6%, Turn 17%)
Side Pot#1 [67 BB]: (Pre 34%, Flop 6%, Turn 17%)

BTN shows J K (One Pair, Kings)

Main Pot [113.5 BB]: (Pre 34%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

SB wins 106.5 BB
SB wins 63 BB
 
Last edited:
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

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Flush draws are a simple math. The odds of drawing 1 card to a flush on the turn are 9 (the number of hearts in this case)/46 (the number of unknown cards) = just under 25% of the time. On the initial call Hero was getting calling 7.5BB to win 25BB. That's negative expectation over the long run. However if Hero assumed the Button would call he is now winning 32.5 25% of the time, which is marginally positive. Not worth the risk IMHO.

As played hero is paying 1 to 3 for a 1/4 chance of winning. Clearly not teh right odds
 
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Gildog89

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This is a simple pot odds question, and you aren't even close to getting the odds you need to call here. The BTN is already all in, and you only have 60.5BB of the 124 BB that the SB put in. You have to call 60.5BB to win 120BB. You need better than 4-1 and are only getting 2-1. You have to fold here.
 
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laimisj

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Wow now I feel stupid haha. I knew all about this, but somehow forgot. It is actually simple math as both of you say, I risk too much with given odds.

Thank you for clearing this up.
 
freddy66

freddy66

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indeed

i look at flush draws like this,im at best 30% on the turn and 30% on the river....according to the bet size,thats your risk....id rather save my chips for a much higher % of a hand i wait on to win!betting on a draw,to me is only leakage.a draw is just a draw,id rather play my made hand!good luck on the felts baby!:cool:
 
Mootizit

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Nope.

Unless it was open ended flush draw ,
proll the odds were around 70+%
 
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Hammii5010

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What is an open ended flush draw?
 
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freestocks

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Sometimes you go for it. Forget the math and take down the cash.
 
slayerupon

slayerupon

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What is an open ended flush draw?

This would be considered an open ended flush draw

:6d4::7d4: Are your hole cards

:8c4::9d4::4d4:


As you can see you have an open ended strait with a flush draw.
 
proud2Bwhack

proud2Bwhack

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with all that money on the table in a MTT sometimes you do go for it, butthe odds are not in your favor as was mentioned.

As an extra thought, if you could shove first and have fold equity vs 1-2 other players, I like the move better.
 
P

PKRNRS

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Yeah this a pretty easy fold. I don't even need a pot calculator to tell me that. I'm not risking my whole stack on a draw. Not to mention what if you hit the 8h or 3h. You think you're good and BOOM! It looks good but you're not going to hit it often. Wait for when you actually have it.
 
jfmcd86

jfmcd86

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Sometimes i would call in that situation, despite the math involved....Life is about taking risks, same goes for poker. Gamble Gamble Gamble !!!
 
bbennie1

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You had in fact 8 outs since he blocked the 8 of hearts. But I'd like to pretend that you didn't know when doing the math here. You're asking if it was worth putting all your chips in on the turn. Well lets see about that decision whether or not you should've called the big one.

You had 9 outs to win it all with 46 unkown cards. So 9/46= 19,6%

Your potential payout was 180,5-60,5= 120 bb (note that the money you already put in pre-flop and before the big decision is "dead money" at this point)
To lose it would be 100-19,6= 80,4%
Since we're taking it from the moment you had to make the decision, your loss would be 60,5 bb as the rest is "dead money".

EV = (0,196*120) - (0,804*60,5) = -25.122, meaning you would lose an average of 25,12 bb in this situation.

But to make quick decisions, just use pot odds and outs people were talking about. Personally the two and four rule works for me nicely.
You got 120/60,5= 2 to 1 pot odds
and 9/46 to ratio = (46:9)+1= 4.11 to 1 on your outs.
 
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S

Smokewood

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If you won the hand you played it right, if you lost you played it wrong.
Pretty simple.

To the people who say you HAVE to be getting 4 to 1 to call here... lol.
What you are saying is if I just bet high enough you will always fold. Real good strat you have there...
 
walluyo

walluyo

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Simply fold you don't have enough odds
 
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BetterNot

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i dont really like to call with flush draw. Its a nice bluffing hand but you put all your trust in that last card there was no other way you would have won so its a bit too big of a risk for me.
 
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samgrizzle

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Depends on how much it costs and if you have any over cards.
 
PokerDragon99

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The odds are against you in this example.

Having nothing but only the flush draw was not All-In worthy.

Semi-bluff from the begin maybe
 
leogetz79

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i dont think you should. to bet all your chips on something you dont have and againt mutiple opponents that ptopbably will weaken more your chances.
 
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