I "Know" what they have got but I still press on!!!

T

TopFuel

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Hi

This is a situation that occurs quite a lot now in my game. Having played more than a million online hands I have got quite good at "Knowing" what they have got yet despite that I still carry on and don't act according to what my intuition is telling me.
In this particular hand as soon as the 10 comes in on the turn and he raises my turn bet, I say to myself "He's got KQ" not he could have KQ but he HAS got KQ. However I shove over the top of him because I am thinking I have two pair and I can still beat him if I hit a J or A on the river for a boat.

It plays out and what did he have?......KQ :)

I needless to say didn't make my boat.

I am quite sure that there are probably multiple mistakes here but I don't feel I can fold in this situation given that A) I don't actually KNOW he has KQ for the nut straight B) I might make my full house to beat him.

Would really like to know what more experienced and much better players than me think about this.

Thanks

Mike




PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
http://[/FONThttp://www.pokertracker.com Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 89 BB (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 5.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.48, Hands: 790)
MP+1: 134.5 BB (VPIP: 13.44, PFR: 12.65, 3Bet Preflop: 2.20, Hands: 256)
CO: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 12.95, 3Bet Preflop: 4.07, Hands: 1,237)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 65.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 42.5 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.33, PFR: 5.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.55, Hands: 525)
UTG: 98 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font>

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 7<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='black'>♣</font> J<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero bets 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB

Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 17 BB, BTN raises to 34 BB, Hero raises to 89 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 55 BB

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 5<font color='red'>♦</font>

Hero shows J<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font> (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 62%, Flop 81%, Turn 9%)
BTN shows Q<font color='black'>♣</font> K<font color='red'>♦</font> (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 38%, Flop 19%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins 194.5 BB
 
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Alucard

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Perhaps this video may help you

 
T

TopFuel

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Thanks Alucard I'll have a look
Mike
 
timberwolf94

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That was a great video. Thanks for sharing it.
 
This Fish Chums

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Hand Analysis: Top Two pair

So here's the situation.
The hero has 100 BB and is out of position to a Button with 101 BB.
The here is dealt AJo and bets 4 BB preflop and the Button calls.

The first thing to consider is that, if the Button is skilled, they know you have a good hand if you're betting out of position like that. So calling means they also have a good hand. You have to be thinking they may have a pair.

The flop comes 7h Ac Jc

Now here is where I think they first play could have been done differently. There's 9.5 BB in the pot. The Hero bets 7 BB with top 2 pair, but there are 2 straight draws and a flush draw on the board. I think this is an under-bet. With top two pair and all those draws I would bet to push the Button off the hand, not trying to build a pot. But it is a substantial sized call, so when the call is made you have to put them on one of four hands.

  1. Trips
  2. Either of the draws
  3. A weaker two pair
  4. Top pair with a great kicker.
On the turn, the pot is 23.5 BB and both straight possibility hit with a Td. Now the hero is out of position and the only information they have on the villain is that they liked the flop enough to call 7 BB. I believe this situation calls for some reconnaissance. In this case I see three optimum possibilities for playing the hand to gather information.

  1. Bet to end the hand by over-betting the pot. Bet 1 - 2 x the pot (24-48 BB) (24-48% of the starting stack). This puts the villain in a spot where they must expose the strength of their hand. If they fold, great, if they call or raise then the hero knows to shut down and get out of the hand because they have the monster and the hero can get out of the hand without losing their entire stack.
  2. Throw out a feeler bet of 5 BB. There's nothing wrong with trying to get an idea of where the villain stands. You get to judge the strength of the villains hand based on how they react and maybe see a cheap river.
  3. Check with the intent of check/raising a weak bet. Another act which would force the villain to expose the strength of their hand.
Now in this case, the hero bets 17 BB and the villain re-raises to 34 BB. This should throw up warning flags that the villain has the monster hand. They re-raised, but did not go all-in. There is basically no chance they are bluffing at this point and the worse they have is trips. Hoping a full house draw hits does not justify going all-in at this point, so I think the best bet would be to fold with the knowledge that they most likely have you beat.
 
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Great thanks for that. A lot for me to digest and very helpful.
Now I realise chasing the boat was a big error
Mike
 
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Ok Alucard watched it and whilst quite a lot of it went over my head because I am not great with high level theory but I think that you are trying to tell me that although I thought he probably did have the straight on the turn, showing courage and going for it was correct. Or did you mean the opposite?? :) Mike
 
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John Bor

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this situation can be like a lesson for you.
precisely because of bad information the opponent was able to win
 
Alucard

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Ok Alucard watched it and whilst quite a lot of it went over my head because I am not great with high level theory but I think that you are trying to tell me that although I thought he probably did have the straight on the turn, showing courage and going for it was correct. Or did you mean the opposite?? :) Mike

yeah. I meant that in a general sense. Here the situation could be different because it's a wet board with some decent action.
But on the long run you should be making +ev decisions & not fret about it if the V has better. It just happens & move on.That's how you win long term.
Otherwise you'll have that hunch everytime the V min raises you & get scared to play & fold even when you are ahead +50%. That'd become a huge problem because you'll be losing money long term
Don't be scared to play
 
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This comes down to knowing your player. If you have very little info on how he plays in different spots it makes this hand just a cooler. Nothing you could do with 100bb. Your going to get it all in every time.

Unless you have a live read, or you know your player, you cant fold in this spot.
 
IcyNicy

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Recently I got in a situation. I played freeroll. Microlimits. I have A10s. I am on a small blind. There are few callers. I supposed that on my raise ( without position for me) they wouldn't fold. So I didn't raise. Then the flop comes A10J. A
I have two pairs . I bet one third of the pot. Two- three called me. Turn comes K. And I realized that probably one of those idiots definitely has a Q. And just called my bet for no purpose. As they always do. I check the turn. And he bets. Quite a solid bet. So I folded my two pairs. Because I know that I wouldn't improve. Also my stack size influenced my desicion.
 
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Thanks Alucard I appreciate the clarification and your video post.
 
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Thanks to all for the replies so far
Mike
 
gabpoker

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I think on the turn I would call or a fold. I am not jamming here but thinking about it more probably not folding without a lot of info on the villain. They could have a bunch of stuff you beat AT, JT, 89cc, flush and str8 draws.
 
Andrew Popov

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This is a situation that occurs quite a lot now in my game. Having played more than a million online hands
I think that if you really played more than a million hands in online poker, and you still play NL2 - you need to do something else. A million hands is a really long distance. If you still build your bankroll on NL2 - then poker is not your game.


Specifically, this hand is a cooler. Just a cooler. In poker, this is not avoidable. There is no fold with the two senior pairs - there are a lot of losing hands that the aggressive player will play just as well. You do not have a fold. Just accept that you are unlucky this time.
 
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Great video. Good fold because I think I’m calling with the set on the river. That’s too hard to get away from. Especially in that situation.
 
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I think that if you really played more than a million hands in online poker, and you still play NL2 - you need to do something else. A million hands is a really long distance. If you still build your bankroll on NL2 - then poker is not your game.


Specifically, this hand is a cooler. Just a cooler. In poker, this is not avoidable. There is no fold with the two senior pairs - there are a lot of losing hands that the aggressive player will play just as well. You do not have a fold. Just accept that you are unlucky this time.
Thanks for your input Andrew. I can see why you would draw the conclusion you did without being in full possession of all the information. I am new to cash games and 2NL only 35000 hands so far. The million or more hands have been at Tournament Poker where I have had some considerable success winning many tournaments online and several in Vegas London and Prague.

But thanks for the opinion about it being a cooler. I think that is what I wanted to hear really lol
 
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I think on the turn I would call or a fold. I am not jamming here but thinking about it more probably not folding without a lot of info on the villain. They could have a bunch of stuff you beat AT, JT, 89cc, flush and str8 draws.
Thanks gab that was my thinking. Although I was fairly certain I had run into a straight he could have had 72o if he was being very creative/stupid :)
 
Andrew Popov

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Thanks gab that was my thinking. Although I was fairly certain I had run into a straight he could have had 72o if he was being very creative/stupid :)


Exactly. We have too little reliable information to motivate the FOLD button with two pairs in hand. Vpip / PFR / 3bet = 65/40/0, even at 20 hands, such statistics speak only of a very wide range of the telephone center. You should be ready to see absolutely any hand there. This time he just got lucky. ;)
 
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Hi

This is a situation that occurs quite a lot now in my game. Having played more than a million online hands I have got quite good at "Knowing" what they have got yet despite that I still carry on and don't act according to what my intuition is telling me.
In this particular hand as soon as the 10 comes in on the turn and he raises my turn bet, I say to myself "He's got KQ" not he could have KQ but he HAS got KQ. However I shove over the top of him because I am thinking I have two pair and I can still beat him if I hit a J or A on the river for a boat.

It plays out and what did he have?......KQ :)

I needless to say didn't make my boat.

I am quite sure that there are probably multiple mistakes here but I don't feel I can fold in this situation given that A) I don't actually KNOW he has KQ for the nut straight B) I might make my full house to beat him.

Would really like to know what more experienced and much better players than me think about this.

Thanks

Mike




PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
http://www.pokertracker.com Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 89 BB (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 5.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.48, Hands: 790)
MP+1: 134.5 BB (VPIP: 13.44, PFR: 12.65, 3Bet Preflop: 2.20, Hands: 256)
CO: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 12.95, 3Bet Preflop: 4.07, Hands: 1,237)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 65.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 42.5 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.33, PFR: 5.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.55, Hands: 525)
UTG: 98 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J A

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 7 A J
Hero bets 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB

Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 17 BB, BTN raises to 34 BB, Hero raises to 89 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 55 BB

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows J A (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 62%, Flop 81%, Turn 9%)
BTN shows Q K (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 38%, Flop 19%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins 194.5 BB


Right! You know what he has but you don't know. At this point you suggest you have a good grip but you still can't fold two pair. I know, I know it's hard. Slow down and stop shoving. Either make a bigger bet on the flop and make them pay to draw or just check and set a trap.
This would have been a good hand to set a trap and check/call until you hit your boat. Of course you don't hit the boat then you are trying to get by cheaply. If "you know" what he has then you don't need to bet after the T came. Only if it was a T hearts would I shove. Maybe. Who am I kidding? I'd be busted out as well.
 
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T

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thanks! More useful insight for me to process :)

Mike
 
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