I can't win! Need some advice to get my head back on straight.

Hello, folks

I have been a slightly winning player for over a year. Not amassed a huge bankroll or anything but worked $30 to $230 on pokerstars in about a year with some long breaks during the course of it. Lately, however, I feel like I'm the biggest donk at the table.

I took a shot at .10 NL when my bankroll got to $230. Lost $80 bucks in like 3 days! That's fine... the shot didn't work, so I dropped back down to 5NL which I have was beating pretty good before. Still kept losing and losing..

Cashed for $31 in the SCOOP 5 card draw tourney which helped, but my bankroll is down to $120 now. I haven't had a single winning session over the course of 15,000 hands! It's been a slow leak ever since the huge 10nl debacle, but I have seriously not ended a session up in so long, I've almost forgotten what it's like.

At this point, I have completely lost confidence in my abilities. I feel like no matter what I have, it's going to get beat. If I have TPTK, the other guy has a set. If I have a set, he has a straight or flush. If I have a flush, he has a boat. If I make a move, he has it and shoves. If I bet for value, he folds. I feel like I can't win, and I'm almost afraid to play.

I've tried adjusting my style.. playing tighter... playing looser... more aggressive... less aggressive... tried adjusting bet sizing to see what impact that would have... whatever I try, the money just keeps flowing out of my pocket.

This isn't some little downswing. I have consistently lost over the course of the last 15,000 hands. At this point, it's impossible to get my brain in the right place to play. I feel like I've lost even before I open a table. I've dropped all the way down to .2nl and still can't win...

Please give me some advice to get back in the game!

Take some time away from the tables. Study your hands, work on your leaks. Sign up for a training site, etc...

15k hands is not that much. But if you're not beating 5 or 10nl, then you have a lot of leaks regardless of sample. There's no one clear cut solution. You're going to need to put work into your game, and be willing to make changes.

Thanks for the fast reply. However, it's a bit vague. I know I need to put work into my game. A decent player doesn't lose over 15,000 hands at 2-10 nl.

I guess I wasn't very specific in my question, though.

I want to make changes, but I need to know how to best find my leaks and fix them. I'm really that dumb that I don't even know how to start improving. I have been watching some videos on strategy and whatnot online, but not seeming to help my win rate. I look at my past hands and of course find some spots where I made mistakes, but I'm just not spotting what it is overall that I'm doing so badly as to keep losing. It would be really nice if I had a coach to watch me play and point out things I'm doing wrong, but no way I could afford that. What's the next best thing?

...and the other thing i don't understand is how I am suddenly losing when I wasn't before over a much larger hand sample. Either the other players suddenly got better (not likely) or I suddenly got worse (maybe... but I can't think of how)

ok, Actually feeling a little better now. Just played a short 1000 hand session and ended up 10 buy ins. I think I may have found part of the problem as well. I realize that I may have changed my style to be a bit more passive than I had realized. I reverted back to an earlier sort of "bet now and ask questions later" approach with great results.

I think I may have been reeling from that bad session and playing scared. My bankroll is back up where I can comfortably move back to 5nl.

Still interested in good ways to improve my game, though.

Ah, in case it will help anyone who cares to give advice, here are my stats:

vpip: 15
pfr: 13
pf3: 4
agg factor: 3.4
cont bet: 68
steal: 37
saw flop: 11
saw showdown: 3
went to showdown when saw flop: 25
won money at showdown: 53
bb/100: 2.6

How many hands are those stats for?

Those stats are from the last App. 50,000 hands.

Your stats look reasonable to me, this is full-ring right?

Stats by position are usually more helpful if you can give them...are you using tracking software?

Some ways to improve: review sessions, post tricky hands in the HA part of the forum and discuss them with others, read lots, play lots, play less tables.

Akhanar said:

ok, Actually feeling a little better now. Just played a short 1000 hand session and ended up 10 buy ins. I think I may have found part of the problem as well. I realize that I may have changed my style to be a bit more passive than I had realized. I reverted back to an earlier sort of "bet now and ask questions later" approach with great results.

I think I may have been reeling from that bad session and playing scared. My bankroll is back up where I can comfortably move back to 5nl.

Still interested in good ways to improve my game, though.

Click to expand...

This is exactly my point. You aren't completely understanding variance yet.

Get something like Leak Buster if you really want to narrow down your leaks one at a time.

can confirm leak buster is useful..

I'm a winning player but I've had some 10k+ BE streaks, I thought it was standard?

but yeah, was John A said.

Campbell92 said:

can confirm leak buster is useful..

I'm a winning player but I've had some 10k+ BE streaks, I thought it was standard?

but yeah, was John A said.

Click to expand...

Yeah at your primary limit it is somewhat standard. You can have those stretches, and the further up the cash chain you move, the bigger those streaks can get.

But also, if you're having those happen at micro stakes, there's a lot of holes in your game. Meaning if someone was beating 400NL 6-max really well (like myself ), and I went and played 10NL, I'm not going to have 10k streaks. Kind of like if Durr came and sat in my 400NL game. Unlikely he'll have 10k streaks. Think you get my point.

So it will happen at whatever your primary limit is, but it's also a sign you have some work to do on your game, as we all do.

I didn't mean to imply in my post above "I had a winning session so I got better." What I meant to say is "I went on a hot streak and it helped my confidence, and also incidentally may have found out something I was doing wrong as well."

Sorry for the confusion.

Also, here are my positional stats as requested above:

B: 21/17/3
CO: 19/17/2
HJ: 17/15/3
MP2: 13/13/4
MP1: 9/8/3
UTG2: 7/7/4
UTG1: 7/7/0
BB: 10/6/5
SB: 21/17/5

Here is my opinion, take it with a grain of salt because I only played those stakes for a few weeks before moving up.
Steal more from late position, add small pp and JTs+ to utg (for a raise), and defend sb less. Make sure you are only calling raises with good implied odds + preferably 2+ players for non paired hands. Do not be afraid to 3bet TAGs. Pay close attention to villians fold to 3bet stat. Many players will fold 85%+, so you could add a bb or 2/100 by attacking weak open raises. (3bb open + 1.5bb in blinds =4.5 bb pot, raise to 9bb; 85% win 4.5bb, 15% lose 9bb :: (4.5*.85)+(-9*.15)= +2.475 bb in EV. Just do not get to carried away or they will start playing back at you.

I think with this slump you have to make sure you haven't gotten to the point where you are afraid to lose money. Because, when I got like that I couldn't win at all. You still have to be able to be aggressive and tight. It's hard to get aggressive and bet, when you feel like your top pair is beat all the time. But, that's something you have to get over and assume your top pair top kicker is good unless something in the other player's betting or typical style indicates that he has better, otherwise bet pot every time. Make sure you don't turn into scared money because you'll lose it all.
That's a lesson I learned the hard way. Only after loosing my bankroll like 3 times.

The positional stats seem alright for a TAG although I think you should watch that you don't get any tighter.

Is your 2.6 bb/100 win rate big bets or big blinds? Given your pre-flop stats, if your post-flop game is decent, it should be the former, and even if it is, the number could still be somewhat higher.

Your win at showdown seems on the low side. Some of the more obvious possibilities that might contribute to this are trying too hard to value bet thin, calling down too thin, and bluffing your missed draws on the end too often.

, which suggests you may tend to value bet and/or call down somewhat more thinly than.

You are better than me.You have some winning history. I have none. Your vpip is much tighter than me, which is probably why I lose

Maybe there is something wrong after flop, but I do not have the right to say, as I suck. Let other people help you.

I think you will be fine.