Huge drop in W$SD% - wtf?

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skithetrees

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I play $10NL FR at 18/12 and have been averaging around 12bb/100 for the past 50k hands. All of a sudden in the last 2 sessions of 2,500 hands my W$SD% has dropped from 54% to 40% and I'm down 5BIs. My numbers have stayed about the same and I've actually tightened up a little to 17/12. Aggression factor has stayed the same at 3.10.

A few questions:
1) Is the 50k hands too small a number to get a true idea of my ability at this level?
2) What should I be looking for to explain the drop in W$SD%, or is this simply variance?
3) The W$SD% comes from HEM. Does this # also include the small checked down pots? Is there a way of getting your win% on pots that were actually played?

Thanks in advance for your help.
 
Last edited:
slycbnew

slycbnew

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I play $10NL FR at 18/12 and have been averaging around 12bb/100 for the past 50k hands. All of a sudden in the last 2 sessions of 2,500 hands my W$SD% has dropped from 54% to 40% and I'm down 5BIs. My numbers have stayed about the same and I've actually tightened up a little to 17/12. Aggression factor has stayed the same at 3.10.

A few questions:
1) Is the 50k hands too small a number to get a true idea of my ability at this level? 12bb/100 is a nice winrate - 50K is enough to say that you're doing well. Thinking about moving up yet?
2) What should I be looking for to explain the drop in W$SD%, or is this simply variance? Has your WTSD increased? That's a huge drop. Some of this could be variance, but I would think you're now looking villains up lighter than you were, or pushing in situations you didn't before, which would increase your WTSD. Has your winrate changed, or is it consistent? Have you looked at your showdown vs. non-showdown winning rates? You may want to post your stats here: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lea...read-2nl-25nl-150754/index10.html#post1193879 Look at posts 147 ff. on page 5 for an example of posting stats. You'll want to review your stats for the last 2500 hands separate from the rest before posting, I think.
3) The W$SD% comes from HEM. Does this # also include the small checked down pots? Yes Is there a way of getting your win% on pots that were actually played? Dunno - maybe someone else knows a way to filter for this - but this shouldn't have a significant impact on your overall winrate unless you're really loose pf, and it doesn't sound like you are...

Thanks in advance for your help.

GL!
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Losing 5 buy-ins in 2500 hands is just a glitch. Tiny downswing and tiny sample size. Don't worry about it. Just spend some time to review your play and make sure it's mostly coolers and not bad play on your side.

I will happen to you quite often if you play a significant volume.

To help you put things in perspective, check out this post i made in the monthly chat thread: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/mo-money-may-chat-thread-150746/post-1192192.html . it hurts a bit while you're in the middle of it, but in the big scheme of things, it's no big deal, really.
 
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mig2169

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Nothing to worry about, 50thousand hands is plenty to determine your ability. Every poker player is going to go through a period where they play great and lose money, they play like a donk and win, it is called variance, AA are not paying off but the 72 in the big blind is making u more money shit lite that don't worry. Gl
 
Exit141RTe1

Exit141RTe1

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I don't think it is much to worry about. Such a small variance.
 
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