How to stay motivated after your reverse implied odds backfire?

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champ_mc99

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For example,

I hold TPTK (AhKh) and on the turn villain holds an obvious spade flush draw - I read him like a book.

I decide to go all-in at this point - meaning if he wants to call - the final pot must be 5x the bet size - but it was much less - something like twice or 3 times the bet size.

He calls anyway - river comes spade - villain turns over AsQs.

Grrrrrrr.......!!

There goes another stack >.<

Regarding pot/odds implied odds - should villain also include the probability of a queen coming on the river?
 
BuzzKillington

BuzzKillington

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Well, if you somehow knew with great certainty that they were chasing a flush draw, and nothing more, then your move was +EV IMO.

I wouldn't really worry too much about a Q coming on the river, so I would treat it like a flush draw where you have 75% equity against the villain. If you count the Q, then it's about 70%. So you're still a large favorite against the flush draw.

But I know how much it sucks. I have had a lot of these bad beats lately. The best you can do is to take a break if you get frustrated and study some more to retain your confidence and improve yourself even more.
 
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champ_mc99

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Well, if you somehow knew with great certainty that they were chasing a flush draw, and nothing more, then your move was +EV IMO.

I wouldn't really worry too much about a Q coming on the river, so I would treat it like a flush draw where you have 75% equity against the villain. If you count the Q, then it's about 70%. So you're still a large favorite against the flush draw.

But I know how much it sucks. I have had a lot of these bad beats lately. The best you can do is to take a break if you get frustrated and study some more to retain your confidence and improve yourself even more.
Tbh - I'm happy I made a good move rather than a crappy move and then lost money.

But yeah - I need a break especially after my AA lost to a QQ after going all-in PF. *sigh*
 
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BuzzKillington

BuzzKillington

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Tbh - I'm happy I made a good move rather than a crappy move and then lost money.

But yeah - I need a break especially after my AA lost to a QQ after going all-in PF. *sigh*
It's okay. It happens. I lost with AA against 88 a few days ago. I just try to laugh about it rather than getting worked up about it, since I did the right thing by calling someone's pre-flop shove with AA. When I look at my statistics, I see that AA usually wins me a lot. You just can't win every single time. Sometimes you're even going to lose to a hand like 22 with AA, or even 72o. It doesn't happen very often, which is why it's +EV to call shoves with AA pre-flop, but from time to time horrible things happen. Just make sure your bankroll can handle the variance.
 
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champ_mc99

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It's okay. It happens. I lost with AA against 88 a few days ago. I just try to laugh about it rather than getting worked up about it, since I did the right thing by calling someone's pre-flop shove with AA. When I look at my statistics, I see that AA usually wins me a lot. You just can't win every single time. Sometimes you're even going to lose to a hand like 22 with AA, or even 72o. It doesn't happen very often, which is why it's +EV to call shoves with AA pre-flop, but from time to time horrible things happen. Just make sure your bankroll can handle the variance.

Happens to every good player - makes me feel a bit better.

Thanks for the motivation!
 
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