How Much to bet on a semi-bluff?

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glworden

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Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden
 
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glworden

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WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED

I bet $1.50 and took down the pot.
 
Ronaldadio

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UTG and u raise with 9cTc ?

What would u have done if someone had come over your flop bet and put u all in?
 
K

kidpoker410

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lol since u raised with this hand i see no problem checking it here and maybe inducing a bet from someone else. u raised and may be able to get someone to bluff at it. u are almost certain to have the most number of outs here so y lead out when u dont have anything at this point? maybe with a check u make ure hand and someone else get s card they wanted. i guess i understand the bet here but on this flop i think checking wouldve been just as good of an option.

like ronald said what if ure RR preflop?
 
The Shrog

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Why did you post an analysis and then two minutes later give us the result? Allow more time in the future for input :)

I would bet around 2/3 pot with your draw. If you are reraised, we need to know stack sizes and player notes before thinking any further.
 
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glworden

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Why did you post an analysis and then two minutes later give us the result? Allow more time in the future for input :)

I would bet around 2/3 pot with your draw. If you are reraised, we need to know stack sizes and player notes before thinking any further.

Thanks for the response. Yes, odd that I posted the result. But it's not really a results-oriented question. I'm interested in how more experienced players see the situation.

My idea in the pre-flop raise was that I had a decent drawing hand and wanted to build the pot in case I hit. I was happy with the flop and really just want to know how to size a semi-bluff.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Explain please.
K, so there's 3.30 in the pot, and you bet $1.50. If your opponent goes all in for $24.20, then...

Pot Size = 3.30 + 1.50 + 1.50 + 22.70 = $29
Price of Call = $22.70
Pot odds = 1.28:1

Even if your opponent has a set, you have a 1.4:1 draw to win by the river. And your opponent's range is much larger than just sets. Against top pair, you're a 57% favorite to win by the river. So even if they put you all in, you should still call.

If you fold to a raise with this draw, you are burning money, because its such a strong hand. We don't need to know any stack sizes or notes, or any of that other BS. You're out of position with a huge draw, you should be shoving all in if you get the chance at least 95% of the time.
 
Double-A

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Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on Bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden

How much would you bet if you had pocket aces?
 
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glworden

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K, so there's 3.30 in the pot, and you bet $1.50. If your opponent goes all in for $24.20, then...

Pot Size = 3.30 + 1.50 + 1.50 + 22.70 = $29
Price of Call = $22.70
Pot Odds = 1.28:1

Even if your opponent has a set, you have a 1.4:1 draw to win by the river. And your opponent's range is much larger than just sets. Against top pair, you're a 57% favorite to win by the river. So even if they put you all in, you should still call.

If you fold to a raise with this draw, you are burning money, because its such a strong hand. We don't need to know any stack sizes or notes, or any of that other BS. You're out of position with a huge draw, you should be shoving all in if you get the chance at least 95% of the time.

Thanks very much for the detailed response. I sized my raise in the hopes of getting a call or a re-raise. I wasn't expecting a large re-raise and would have folded, although your explanation gives me pause. I'll have to think about this and let it sink in. Now you're saying I shouldn't wait to respond to a raise, I should be PUSHING all in on this flop? My initial response to that is that I'd be missing a chance to build the pot. Respond please. Thanks.
 
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glworden

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How much would you bet if you had pocket aces?

Pocket aces? I would probably have tried to protect them against four potential callers. Probably bet pot sized or more. Had this been the case, I would have been wary of a set on a re-raise.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I should be PUSHING all in on this flop?
No, you don't want to over bet. You wouldn't mind a chance to shove all in here, but to start with just bet your normal c-bet of between 65-90% of the pot. If you get raised, then we're certainly going to shove all in. But you have to start small. If you just immediately raise all in, you're only going to get called by hands that have you beaten. You want to get action from all the hands that you can beat.
 
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santa fe slim

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After the flop, you bet about what I would have. Checking if you think you can get a free card is also legit in my mind.
Preflop, I think a raise with suited connectors is perfectly legit. You don't want to only raise when you have AA.
 
jdeliverer

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No, you don't want to over bet. You wouldn't mind a chance to shove all in here, but to start with just bet your normal c-bet of between 65-90% of the pot. If you get raised, then we're certainly going to shove all in. But you have to start small. If you just immediately raise all in, you're only going to get called by hands that have you beaten. You want to get action from all the hands that you can beat.

There really isn't a hand that has you beat in terms of chances of winning by the river. Open ended straights with flushes beats two pair or even a set about 55-45, but I agree you want action from as many people as you can because usually if you can beat one opponent, you can beat all 4 (because you made a straight or flush).
 
shinedown.45

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Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on Bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden
I would bet $1.50 and take it down right there:p
TBH, suited or not, the hand you decided to play was total garbage and you got real lucky.
Playing these types of hands from UTG/EP are -EV in the long run.
 
A

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Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on Bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden

well, i think with four callers u can check in ur UTG position and wait that top pair JJ bet after u to make selection on other pre-flop callers.
Then, when is ur turn, u re-raise his bet x2.

I think ur opponent will not think to your project but a pair highest (QQ / KK / AA) because you raise pre-flop in UTG (hence he believes you are very strong).

So he probably will only call or even leave, but you will in any case taken a strong psychological advantage.

p.s.: i think occasionally a crazy raise we can do.
In fact in this case it's happened a strong hand, which can easily disorient others and make a beautiful pot.
 
norbs286

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Situation:
.10/.25 NL Hold 'EM, Full Ring on Bodog.

Under the gun, I have 9cTc. I raise to .80.

There are four callers.

Flop is Jc8h4c.

I have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Pot is $3.30.

How much should I be here?

Gary the Worden

For me, this would be a classic mini-raise to see a 'free' turn when I potentially have a very strong hand. Being UTG, I would also be ready to call any raise - If not, no point of betting in the first place.
 
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glworden

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No shortage of opinions

I very much appreciate the discussion. It's interesting that there's such a range of opinions among such knowledgeable players: anything from "garbage hand" to near monster.

I guess I somewhat disagree with those who think a pre-flop raise is uncalled for. Medium suited connectors are worth a shot. Should I limp into an unraised pot? I almost always choose to make an initial raise. First to maintain an aggressive style and image. Second because I gain more info about the strength of opponents' hands when I raise rather than limp. Third because if I should connect on the flop, I want there to be some money in the pot. Yes, I got lucky with the flop, but I only risked .80 to see it. I might very well have stolen the blinds with that bet - or perhaps have run into a big hand/big raise and been able to fold pre-flop without much damage.

How often will you guys play suited connectors or A-suited hands in early position? How often will you raise with them.

Your comments have opened my eyes about the strength of the hand post-flop. The flop gave me a drawing hand. I would likely have seen it as only a drawing hand and folded to a significant raise. But I need to remember that a good drawing hand like this can actually be favored over a made hand like trips or big pair.

Thanks for the help all, especially c9, James, and norbs. Shinedown, I'd be interested in hearing more about the garbage/negative eV aspect.
Gary
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'd be interested in hearing more about the garbage/negative eV aspect.
In general, suited connectors flop draws, and unless you flop a 12+ out draw like you did here, its hard to play draws profitably out of position. Its much easier to see free cards & control the size of the pot when you're in position.
 
Double-A

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Pocket aces? I would probably have tried to protect them against four potential callers. Probably bet pot sized or more. Had this been the case, I would have been wary of a set on a re-raise.

If you play your draws differently than AA then you are giving away too much information.
 
PokerVic

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If you play your draws differently than AA then you are giving away too much information.

Exactly. How much to bet shouldn't depend on what you're holding at all. It should be depend on the board, position, and your opponent.

Out-of-position with a monster draw, this is where I'd be check-raising. You want your opponent to put something in the pot, then you apply the pressure. And, if he checks, you get your free card. I'd only lead out here if my opponent was a passive better.
 
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chris697

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bet 2/3 if that more then half push in you have like 17 outs good lucky
 
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