How many hands in the positive does it take to be considered a winning player

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babco079

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I have struggled with cash games for a long time. I put the work in, bought pokertracker and really changed the way I play cash games. I have about 5500 hands logged and im in profit and there are some dips along the way but none dipping below positive cash flow. I know 5500 is a small sample set so I wanted to to get some input on what you think a good sample size should be before I start to think of myself as being a winning player at the cash game? 100,000? 250,000? 1,000,000?
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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There is no answer. You are a winning player as long as you are winning.

Once you get a large sample - I dont know what, I guess 250k+ - you can see if your wins or losses are due to good play + bad luck or bad play + heaters.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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I think absolute minimum is around 30k.

I used 50k before I started analyzing my results for trends etc.

Just to give you an idea about how the winrate can change:
- my first 5k hands = 22.55 bb/100, when adjusted according to $ EV Diff it came out to 7.33 bb/100
- next 32k hands = 5.43 bb/100, adjusted 2.94 bb/100
- last 23k hands = -1.65 bb/100, adjusted -0.42 bb/100

Funnily enough, there is a clear down trend in my results that correlates with my learning process but goes in the opposite direction.
This also includes luck :D

I think it is because:
1. I started massively overthinking things instead of just playing like a fish with a bit more brain than average
2. regular opponents got big hand samples on me and started abusing my leaks
3. I have an inflamed tooth and have been spewing in the last week since my patience is shot to hell (should have refrained from playing :D)

Overall I am at 4.1 bb/100 over 61k hands so basically break even player or mildly profitable (before or after adjustment for EV).

I am satisfied with that for now and plan to continue working on my game.

Interestingly, I am doing well in tournaments although I have done ZERO learning about tournament strategies and am just using basic strategy that I came up with for freerolls. Seems to work wonderfully in micro stakes tournaments and satellites.
 
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