How extreme is your variance?

akaRobbo

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Mine today, in around 6 hours 5 tabling, has spanned 10 BIs. 5+ and 5-. Didn't really find anything too wrong with my losing hands so I guess it can be variance or should this not be happening? I guess variance is a bit of an area we cant really explain or identify, with it being random and down to luck?

Any of you have any luck with quads over your playing time :)? I lost with them 2 days ago, lost to them yesterday and lost to them today. Happy days!
 
Thinker_145

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For me 5 BI down is completely normal and has happened quite a few times without tilting. If you go over 10BI down then it means you are tilting.

Getting to your second point are you trying to say that in the last 3 days you lost with quads 3 times? That's absolutely insane I have yet to lose with quads and I am approaching 50k hands. My full house has lost to quads a few times that can happen but still doesn't happen that often. I am really having a hard time believing this can you share those hands?
 
U

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I'm going to guess you are calling too much at the river and bluffing too much before the river. The better you get at folding in the right spot and calling/betting in the right spot the lower your variance will be.

I think what you are experiencing now is very normal. You are just learning how to identify the right spots.
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

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Getting to your second point are you trying to say that in the last 3 days you lost with quads 3 times? That's absolutely insane I have yet to lose with quads and I am approaching 50k hands. My full house has lost to quads a few times that can happen but still doesn't happen that often. I am really having a hard time believing this can you share those hands?

Nah I haven't been the one holding quads every time. Two days ago I lost with quad 8s vs straight flush. Yesterday I lost to quad 9s with Kings (the guy called all in pre as well and flopped 2 9s). Then today someone cracked my aces with Quad 2s. Pokertracker is only showing me my last 1100 hands for some reason, but I can assure you im not lying lol...I feel like I should be broke by now. Im having a nightmare atm, just stopped now like -3BI for the day, so today after around 3k hands I won 5BI then lost 8. Last hand, I flop trip Kings (holding KQs) and villain flops a FH (holding 22) K2K flop.The very hand before that I had to fold KK because villain flopped a set. I have those saved.

pokerstars Hand #115081445914: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD)
6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: FMT47 ($10.30 in chips)
Seat 2: Runner130 ($9.41 in chips)
Seat 3: sggirb ($15.01 in chips)
Seat 4: Weak Tite ($11.23 in chips)
Seat 5: akaRobbo($11.44 in chips)
Seat 6: silinnik ($10 in chips)
akaRobbo: posts small blind $0.05
silinnik: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to akaRobbo [Kd Kh]
FMT47: folds
Runner130: folds
sggirb: folds
Weak Tite: folds
akaRobbo: raises $0.20 to $0.30
silinnik: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [9c 6c Th]
akaRobbo: bets $0.30
silinnik: raises $0.55 to $0.85
akaRobbo: raises $1.25 to $2.10
silinnik: raises $1.75 to $3.85
akaRobbo: calls $1.75
*** TURN *** [9c 6c Th] [5s]
akaRobbo: checks
silinnik: bets $3.70
akaRobbo: folds
Uncalled bet ($3.70) returned to silinnik
silinnik collected $7.93 from pot

I assume people agree with me that this is a flopped set im up against here? Probably 10s as she fires a lot on the turn, putting me on 9s? Maybe thinking ill call with AA or KK though. I run too good :D
 
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Aces2w1n

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I tend to agree the tighter you play/nitty the less varience you get.

Usually high varience is playing is bad spots and perhaps your winning from bad hands. Odd occasions you will be getting a lot of hands though all around the sametime which will cause a dip or an upswing depending how much of them you win.
 
akaRobbo

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I'm going to guess you are calling too much at the river and bluffing too much before the river. The better you get at folding in the right spot and calling/betting in the right spot the lower your variance will be.

I think what you are experiencing now is very normal. You are just learning how to identify the right spots.

Nah since loads of people have told me to stop bluffing and even Nits were calling me down ive stopped bluffing. Ill only semi bluff with second pair etc or usually only barrel once if I am bluffing on the very odd occasion. Does it sometimes feel like you're playing too passive though? I does for me now im playing much tighter and not bluffing. Also when you're getting no cards everyone thinks youre an absolute nit so getting value can be hard too.
 
Aces2w1n

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You don't need to play passive, you can play aggressive and wide from the BTN/CO but it takes experience to master a lot of spots.
 
U

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Nah since loads of people have told me to stop bluffing and even Nits were calling me down ive stopped bluffing. Ill only semi bluff with second pair etc or usually only barrel once if I am bluffing on the very odd occasion. Does it sometimes feel like you're playing too passive though? I does for me now im playing much tighter and not bluffing. Also when you're getting no cards everyone thinks youre an absolute nit so getting value can be hard too.

No, because I play a ton in position. So my "getting cards" is fairly broad, but I mostly play for value and that shouldn't change for a long time.

5+/- buyin swings isn't that strange, but it should be relatively atypical.
 
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enesem

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I once played an afternoon in a Casino in USA, it was a strange format, $3bb, $2 sb and $1 on the button.

I played for about 6 hours, and there was not one single hand I had that would have won going to the river. NOT ONE !

I only played 2 hands all day, AA and KK, both ended all in pre-flop, both times beat.

So, in 6 hours, I played only 2 hands and lost $400.

It's very common that I can have a few hundred hands on Pokerstars and not catch a flop, so my stake just ebbs away.

However, you can't view it in such short terms.

Nathan Williams has an excellent blog you should subscribe to.

Here are his thoughts on it:

"I remember a couple of years ago when I was being coached and mentored by a very successful mid and high stakes player that he told me that he had not had a winning month all year. This was in the middle of June! This is a player who has won well in excess of 1 million dollars playing this game. He hadn't actually been losing persay during this streak, especially after the Supernova Elite rakeback kicked in, but he had been break even for about 300 THOUSAND hands in a row.

Again, this is a guy who could probably crack the list for the top 100 most successful online poker players ever. An absolute world class talent destroying some of the biggest games on Pokerstars for years and was now break even for almost half a year."


So, you need a BIG sample to be really sure.
 
U

Ubercroz

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The last 3 nights I played around 4k hands and lost about 7 buy-ins.

Missed lots of flops, wasn't getting folds from cbets when I missed, only got folds when I did hit, got sucked out on when I was ahead, and ran in to the top of everyones range.

Variance sucks, but it will all turn around with time.
 
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swingro

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I once played an afternoon in a Casino in USA, it was a strange format, $3bb, $2 sb and $1 on the button.

I played for about 6 hours, and there was not one single hand I had that would have won going to the river. NOT ONE !

I only played 2 hands all day, AA and KK, both ended all in pre-flop, both times beat.

So, in 6 hours, I played only 2 hands and lost $400.

It's very common that I can have a few hundred hands on Pokerstars and not catch a flop, so my stake just ebbs away.

However, you can't view it in such short terms.

Nathan Williams has an excellent blog you should subscribe to.

Here are his thoughts on it:

"I remember a couple of years ago when I was being coached and mentored by a very successful mid and high stakes player that he told me that he had not had a winning month all year. This was in the middle of June! This is a player who has won well in excess of 1 million dollars playing this game. He hadn't actually been losing persay during this streak, especially after the Supernova Elite rakeback kicked in, but he had been break even for about 300 THOUSAND hands in a row.

Again, this is a guy who could probably crack the list for the top 100 most successful online poker players ever. An absolute world class talent destroying some of the biggest games on Pokerstars for years and was now break even for almost half a year."


So, you need a BIG sample to be really sure.

The example with the high stakes player is probabely the most relevant. The edge at high stakes is given by small details since everyone is very good at poker. Big swings can happen if god of bad luck hits you from time to time. On the long run it gets even but I belive even a 200k sample is not that relevant at nosebleeds. They tend to measure their game in dollars/hand witch is a lot smaller than 1BB/100. Bad luck on several hands every week and the swing is incredible high. Players that do this exclusively for money like Leatherass stoped at the lvl that give their game the most profit with the smallest swings possible. This is possible only testing their game over milions of hands.

A big swing at micros it is possible but it is most likely because a lot of big leaks.
 
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Sneaky Feet

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In the last 1-1/2 weeks I'm down about 11BI. It feels like I just can't catch a break I haven't had a winning session in over a week and now it's starting to effect my play. I'm a shit player anyway so that really doesn't help at all.

Maybe I need to start a pre game superstitious ritual. Touch my toes 3 times, spin counter clockwise and howl at the moon with my underwear on my head or something.
 
akaRobbo

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Maybe I need to start a pre game superstitious ritual. Touch my toes 3 times, spin counter clockwise and howl at the moon with my underwear on my head or something.

Hahaha. I had to drop downstakes, it was getting to the point where 1BI was very important, too important and my play was badly affected.

Now I'm running at 14BB/100 after a few thousand of hands. The players are much worse, I'm not even running well, just normal. I guess I had leaks at the level above, I dunno. It definitely helps confidence though
 
Arjonius

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Variance is basically a statistical measure looking at the range within which your results are likely to deviate from the expected value during a given period. This is not the same as how much your BR moves up or down during a session or any other time period.
 
Karozi615

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Variance is basically a statistical measure looking at the range within which your results are likely to deviate from the expected value during a given period. This is not the same as how much your BR moves up or down during a session or any other time period.

+1

after a million hands your play might yield a 800% ROI but you could have a 16,000 hand stretch where you deviate from your ROI.

variance doesn't change for anybody - the only relevant factor is aside from the cards themselves is style of play. Somebody who is inclined to take marginal spots (such as 52/48 edges) will experience extreme swings while a micro-nit will almost never go on a downswing of more than a few buy ins but the profits are never unnatural or exponential either

If your the type of player that wants to get in 125 bb's with middle pair an overcard and the nut flush draw against a maniac with absurd stats because you know that your hand plays +ev your also going to be the type of player who experiences absurd swings, but ultimately your net result should be positive.


The idea is not to alter play even during the downswings, because great poker players will tell you that when your playing your A+ game and the 'variance factor' is weighing heavily in your favor, your level of profitability is absurdly high. That's what we all play for.
 
Karozi615

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Also, if your bankroll is ever a factor or consideration during play - you will go broke and be starting from scratch, its 100% gaurenteed.

When I first started playing I would turn 100$ into 500 and then open four tables of .25/.50 and sweat every hand like crazy - at the time I didn't understand I had already lost as soon as I sat at those tables
 
suby_rafael

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Depends of what kind of game i am playing. It is different when playing omaha - 6 handed the variance is more, 9 handed a lot less as the action is slow, zoom omaha has similar high variance.
Also similar differences when playing holdem, sometimes it also depends on what mood i am in :). Better off to keep em in check.
 
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SwiftHax

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Last session was terrible.

AK vs A6 AI preflop, lose
AK vs J9 AI preflop, lose
AA vs QQ AI preflop, lose
AA vs AKs AI preflop lose (backdoor flush)
KK vs AK AI preflop, lose
77 vs QQ on a flop 789, turn 5 river 6, split pot.

So far, lost 20BIs.
 
akaRobbo

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Last session was terrible.

AK vs A6 AI preflop, lose
AK vs J9 AI preflop, lose
AA vs QQ AI preflop, lose
AA vs AKs AI preflop lose (backdoor flush)
KK vs AK AI preflop, lose
77 vs QQ on a flop 789, turn 5 river 6, split pot.

So far, lost 20BIs.

That is brutal. What stakes is that, did you drop down or re-deposit? At least you know it's not your play which is costing you $. Just need to keep at it, it's tough at times though.
 
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SwiftHax

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That is brutal. What stakes is that, did you drop down or re-deposit? At least you know it's not your play which is costing you $. Just need to keep at it, it's tough at times though.
Thank god it was just 2NL. $87 bankroll, so still have a half of it to keep fighting. Thing is, I do make poor plays afterwards costing me a buy-in or two.
 
LD1977

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That is big enough to survive until the variance normalizes. Just don't start spewing in frustration.
 
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