How do I analyse this in HEM? (leak with QQ+)

So, I've been going through my HEM database and I think I've spotted something weird, but I have no clue how to analyse this further.

Graph below is filtered for QQ+ at 100nl and 200nl. Something wrong happens around hand 3500, which is at the very beginning of this year. Last year I was winning at about 365 BB/100 with those hands. This year I'm down to 220 BB/100. That's a pretty huge difference. Worth about 2BB/100 in overall win rate.

Obviously some of it could be variance, but I assume the more likely explanation is that I changed something in the way I play and it's a pretty big leak. The problem is that I'm not aware that I changed anything to that part of my game. Obviously none of the classical stats help here. What should I be looking at to try to pin point this leak?

Just a thought, but it looks like it's your sd hands that are suffering, not your non-sd. Maybe filter for aggression/actions on flop and turn for hands that go to sd, compare hands 3500+/3500-? Raising, c/r, etc.?

Could it be that nothing has changed except the number of hands that regs have on you at these limits.

Maybe around that time regs started having enough hands on you to make better folds etc.

What does JJ and KK look like?

Is this specific to just QQ or has JJ and KK and even AA been effected to a lesser extent?

Stu_Ungar said:

What does JJ and KK look like?

Is this specific to just QQ or has JJ and KK and even AA been effected to a lesser extent?

Click to expand...

it's not QQ, it's QQ+, i.e. {AA, KK, QQ}

I dont know.

I would filter all hands after that point and then filter an equivalent number of hands before that point and just keep running random filters until I found something that was different between the two.

Maybe look at IP vs OOP and dry boards vs wet boards.

Its hard to say what you should be looking for because even you yourself arent sure what has changed.

Has you game selection changed?

Were you making more of an effort to find softer games at that point?

Are you generally playing deeper now than you were?

Hmm, what about the addition of Rush? Maybe those hands give different results at Rush, or, the addition of Rush has affected regular cash games?