How To Analyze A Hand

Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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The typical hand analysis thread in a poker forum looks a little a something like this:

  • Hand with actions up until first "questionable action" shown
  • Spoiler around the action in question
  • Posts from people saying what they would do on that street (and why, ideally)
  • Consenus, if the spot was straightforward, or
  • Lively discussion, followed by
  • Flaming

But what happens if you want to sit down and analyze your own hand? Maybe you don't have internet access, or don't want to wait for the masses to respond to your hand online. Or maybe you just want to be able to reach some kind of conclusion on your own (gosh - this might be helpful since you play most hands by yourself!).

There are actually a number of ways you can analyze a hand. Some of them less detailed, and some of them downright tedious. But today we use one of my favorites:



Full-Range Hand Analysis:

The idea of this is that instead of looking at a given spot in a vacuum, we look at the actions in the entire hand - and at each decision point we consider our opponent's range, our own range, and then try to decide how each part of that range plays. As we go on, we narrow all ranges (although an even tougher hand analysis would be to then keep analyzing how the rest of our range would play, even if we didn't take that action). I'm probably not explaining this perfectly, but you'll get it more as we go along.



Live $1-$2, effective stack sizes = $450, no reads (sat down at the table recently), table looking loose passive in first 2 orbits though.



Preflop: 2 limpers, Hero is in MP with :ah4: :as4: , and makes it $15 to go. First limper folds, and limper to Hero's immediate right calls.

  • Hero's isolating range is: 99+/AT+/KJ+ (6.3% of hands)
  • Hero's over-limping range is: 88-/87s+/T8s+/Q9s+/A2s+ excluding the isolating range (8.9% of hands)
  • Hero's folding range = everything else (84.8% of hands)
  • Villain's over-limp/calling range = 22-TT/54s+/75s+/ T7s+/Q8s+/T9o+/QTo+/KTo+/Axs/A8o+ (23.7% of hands)
  • Villain's isolating limper range = AK/AQ/JJ+ (4.2% of hands)



Flop: ($32) :kd4: :qc4: :3c4: (2 players)

Villain leads for $10. He probably only does this with hands that have connected on some level. It looks pretty small, which could be thin value, blocking (with a flush draw or PP), or a "I don't understand bet-sizing" bet.

  • Villain's lead $10 range: K9s-KJs/KTo-KJo/Axcc/Q8s-QJs/54-JTcc/75-J9cc/ T7-J8cc/44-TT
  • Villain's check-raise range: 33
  • Villain's check-fold range: everything else
  • I don't think he really has a check-call range here because I think he leads a TON of hands he wants to continue with

Hero makes it $40 (remember hero's isolating range was 99+/AT+/KJ+).
  • Hero's raise to $40 range: QQ+/AT-AJcc/KJ/KQ/AK
  • Hero's call $10 range: 99-JJ/AQ
  • Hero's fold range: AT-AJ (no flush draw)
  • I think this range distribution is pretty optimal, given how weird his line is and the assumptions we're forced to make about how his range breaks down

Villain calls.

  • K9s-KJs/KTo-KJo/Axcc/Q8s-QJs/54-JTcc/75-J9cc/ T7-J8cc
  • Villain continues with his entire leading range aside from the PP's


Turn: ($110) :7h4: (2 players)

Villain leads for $10 again.

  • I think realistically we would have to start assigning weights to some of his combos here, but for simplicity, I will assume full weights
  • Villain's lead $10 range: K9s-KJs/KTo-KJo/54-JTcc/Axcc/J9cc
  • Villain's check range: T7-J8cc/75-T8cc/Q8s-QJs

Hero makes it $70 (range before this is QQ+/AT-AJcc/KJ/KQ/AK)

  • Hero's raise to $70 range: QQ+/KQ/AK/KJcc
  • Hero's call range: AT-AJcc/KJ (no FD)

Villain calls.

  • Villain's calling range: K9s-KJs/KTo-KJo/54-JTcc/Axcc/J9cc
  • Villain likely doesn't fold anything he leads here, since he has to call $60 into a very large pot


River: ($250) :5s4: (2 players)

Villain checks.

  • The flush draw misses, and based on villain's line so far, he probably checks his entire range here, and will call a small to medium-sized bet with top pair.

Hero bets $70 (range before this is QQ+/KQ/AK/KJcc).

  • Hero's $70 betting range: AA/AK/KJcc
  • Hero's bet bigger (probably $120ish) range: QQ/KK/KQ/

Villain calls.

  • Villain's calling range: K9s-KJs/KTo-KJo (2.7% of hands)
  • Villain's folding range: 54-JTcc/Axcc/J9cc (1.4% of hands)


I think I make a pretty enormous mistake on the river with my sizing. Note that my range for betting the river beats villain's entire river range. And the only hands we expect villain to get to the river with that aren't flush draws are top pair hands. In the moment I was worried about KQ, but look at how the action went. KQ isn't even possible on the flop, because villain is pretty much always going to x/r it (or lead larger, perhaps).

We can't expect a villain who takes this line to be folding top hair for just about anything on this river. I can be bombing it to at least $150, but I think $180 is a pretty reasonable size and will get looked up a LOT.

Another consideration here is that not only does Hero's entire range beat villain's entire range, but also that 1/3 of villain's range that gets to the river is going to be check-folding. I think this is a spot where we can try to get to this river with more air combos by semi-bluffing the turn with straight draws and then betting small on the river to get his air to fold. Then bomb the river with value hands to get paid off by his top pair hands. We don't need to balance at all, because villain isn't a strong enough hand reader, and he's going to insta-fold all his flush draws that bricked (unless they are also top pair).

I expect we can bet $50-70 on this river and get Axcc to insta-muck. Which is an outrageously +EV play. We bet $70 to win $250, and he folds 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time we lose $70, and 1/3 of the time we win $250, so


EV = (1/3)($250) + (2/3)(-$70) = $83.33 - $46.67 = $36.66 EV


And that's absolutely HUGE. Villain ended up with K9cc in this spot, and didn't insta-call, but he didn't exactly tank either. This points even more to the idea that I can probably size bigger in this spot.


Hopefully someone gets something out of this. It can be time-consuming, but it can also be really eye-opening to sit down and break down a spot like this. Separating out the ranges on each street can also inform us on when we can take profitable bluff lines, or value bet thinner - or whatever! I didn't give the % of hands that each part of his range was on every street, since I focused more on the river decision, but doing that on every street will give you even more insight (again, it can be time-consuming though).

Thanks for wading through this monster post, and good luck with your hand analysis!
 
BluffMeAllIn

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I haven't "waded through" your post yet but certainly will be doing so this evening. Looks like could be some great info.
 
vinylspiros

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Scourrge, this is awesome. Love how you have everything organized and well written.


:)These are some things i have never thought about in such detail. I mean, i do think about all of these ranges subconsciously and as the hand evolves ,but having them written down like this with this nice analysis is a really cool thing to see and learn from.

thanks alot for posting this. :)




EDIT: after having read this, i get the feeling that you are a really good player. share the knowledge man. :)
 
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Thanks for posting, i'm not very good at this stuff at all.
 
honeycrush

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Subbing so that I can read later. Good stuff - thanks! :)
 
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swingro

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I copy/paste this and put it on my desktop in a file.
This is awesome man.
Even though there are a lot of good authors there nobody has the space to give all they got to one example. I heard Blackrain79 wants to do something like this in his new book (that is why he think his book will be over 500 pages fat).
But this is gold. Thanks and you have my respect for posts like this.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Good post! I'll probably come back to this occasionally and read it over. I wish I could offer some input, but I'm not very good at ranging like this. Subbing, though, because this thread should be awesome!
 
Matt Vaughan

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Thanks for the love, you guys. I wish I could have made the formatting a little friendlier, but c'est la vie.
 
EvertonGirl

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Thanks Scourrge, your a star.

Copied and Pasted :D
 
DrazaFFT

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Great post Scourrge, im having trouble thinking in ranges, this post really opens up how you should look at it, thanks.

Looking forward for more :D
 
BluffMeAllIn

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I haven't "waded through" your post yet but certainly will be doing so this evening. Looks like could be some great info.

Excellent post Scourge, much appreciate the time in posting as certainly gives great info on breaking down a hand for analysis which is something I have certainly never taken focus on and really do need to get some of the more technical analysis going in my head sometime.
 
konatus

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Liked the post and I will guide my Analysis through your post.
 
Jblocher1

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Wow.... Nice scourge. Very well done
 
micromachine

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Just found this. Nice post Scourrge, good stuff.

In the analysis of his flop range I don't agree with this: "I don't think he really has a check-call range here because I think he leads a TON of hands he wants to continue with". It's a huge assumption to make that he donk bets everything he wants to continue with isn't it? Or am I missing something? I think he is actually more likely to check/call than to lead with the range you assign for him to lead with. Also, why isn't KQ and a bunch of other semi bluff hands in his check/raise range, you have no reads so you can't assume he won't c/r hands like Axcc as a semi-bluff or KQ for value there.

And a bit I don't think I understand:

"I expect we can bet $50-70 on this river and get Axcc to insta-muck. Which is an outrageously +EV play. We bet $70 to win $250, and he folds 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time we lose $70, and 1/3 of the time we win $250, so


EV = (1/3)($250) + (2/3)(-$70) = $83.33 - $46.67 = $36.66 EV"

Why do we lose $70 2/3 of the time? Doesn't our hand beat the entire range he gets to the river with? I'm probably being thick but I don't get the calculation :)
 
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And a bit I don't think I understand:

"I expect we can bet $50-70 on this river and get Axcc to insta-muck. Which is an outrageously +EV play. We bet $70 to win $250, and he folds 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time we lose $70, and 1/3 of the time we win $250, so


EV = (1/3)($250) + (2/3)(-$70) = $83.33 - $46.67 = $36.66 EV"

Why do we lose $70 2/3 of the time? Doesn't our hand beat the entire range he gets to the river with? I'm probably being thick but I don't get the calculation :)
Because we are only betting $70 as a cheap bluff with our air or missed draws. When we actually have a value hand we are betting bigger knowing that his calling range is inelastic in this spot.
 
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Thanks for posting, it's a great post
 
Matt Vaughan

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Just found this. Nice post Scourrge, good stuff.

In the analysis of his flop range I don't agree with this: "I don't think he really has a check-call range here because I think he leads a TON of hands he wants to continue with". It's a huge assumption to make that he donk bets everything he wants to continue with isn't it? Or am I missing something? I think he is actually more likely to check/call than to lead with the range you assign for him to lead with. Also, why isn't KQ and a bunch of other semi bluff hands in his check/raise range, you have no reads so you can't assume he won't c/r hands like Axcc as a semi-bluff or KQ for value there.

And a bit I don't think I understand:

"I expect we can bet $50-70 on this river and get Axcc to insta-muck. Which is an outrageously +EV play. We bet $70 to win $250, and he folds 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time we lose $70, and 1/3 of the time we win $250, so


EV = (1/3)($250) + (2/3)(-$70) = $83.33 - $46.67 = $36.66 EV"

Why do we lose $70 2/3 of the time? Doesn't our hand beat the entire range he gets to the river with? I'm probably being thick but I don't get the calculation :)

Hey micro, thanks for stopping by and reading the novel :)

I only stated I don't think he has a check-call range because I've seen him lead the flop. It is a pretty big assumption, but based on the fact that he leads small on the flop, which I think he does with most pair or flush draw hands, it doesn't leave much he can x/c with. Again, it IS an assumption, for sure. But once he does lead the flop, I find it unlikely he's "balancing" by leading 50% and x/c 50% with those hands.

For the EV calculation, I'm no longer talking about my exact holdings. You are correct that my hand beats his entire range, which is why it's a slam-dunk value bet. In fact, practically my entire range that gets to that river (as I was playing at the time) beats his range.

So what I'm actually talking about there is that because 1/3 of his range has to snap-fold to my bets, I can probably start changing my ranges on this runout to include more air. When I DO get to the river with air, I can bet tiny, make him fold bricked club draws, and not lose much to his top pair hands. That's why we lose the $70 2/3 of the time though. I'm assuming I'm on the river with pure air, or ace high, and he only calls with a range that beats me. That range is 2/3 of the range he gets to the river with.

(As a side note though, I shouldn't bet the river with my nut A-high hands, since I beat most of his draws, though it'd be interesting to see at what point I should be betting Ax as a bluff or to get him to fold chops.)

Hope that clarifies things.
 
JOEBOB69

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First i like the post.
I think it might be better served, though as a pre HA posting tool. It would help you/them etc. better undestand your ranges/thoughts before you actually post the hand. That way if some one as a gross misconception of what villains actually ranges etc. are they won't keep on making the same mistakes. Like they would if they used this thread as a solo event. Further more they will be more prepared to "argue there case" against some one who disagrees. Which opens up more thought for both parties.
 
stately7

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Nice work Scourrge, the ranging process really helps and seems very realistic. Esp with live $1/2 settings!

Not sure I'd try as large as $180 on this river, but I agree most / or a lot of his range is folding anyway unless he has top pair. Which does make $75 too small. I'm about $135 here... which lol ofc is probably a mistake ;)
 
Matt Vaughan

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First i like the post.
I think it might be better served, though as a pre HA posting tool. It would help you/them etc. better undestand your ranges/thoughts before you actually post the hand. That way if some one as a gross misconception of what villains actually ranges etc. are they won't keep on making the same mistakes. Like they would if they used this thread as a solo event. Further more they will be more prepared to "argue there case" against some one who disagrees. Which opens up more thought for both parties.

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying, JB? Are you saying to use it as the jumping off point for discussing most profitable lines? Because I agree with that. But I don't get what you mean how this would keep someone thinking about ranges incorrectly (as opposed to how HA threads work now, where most people don't even explain their thought process).

The main point of this is just to show the thought process in action - using ranges, narrowing them based on action, and then just starting to take baby steps toward making strong lines.

Nice work Scourrge, the ranging process really helps and seems very realistic. Esp with live $1/2 settings!

Not sure I'd try as large as $180 on this river, but I agree most / or a lot of his range is folding anyway unless he has top pair. Which does make $75 too small. I'm about $135 here... which lol ofc is probably a mistake ;)

You may be right, since even bad villains will sometimes realize you have to have a strong hand when you raise them twice and then bomb the river. I also have a bit of hindsight bias here because he called the river more quickly than I expected.

The weird thing was that he seemed surprised when I showed down aces. He shook my hand, as if my bet was really thin, and really well done. (Yet he called pretty quickly with a weak top pair.) What did he think I had then - air? It makes me want to do a follow-up post of the same hand, but from villain's perspective - kind of to show how I think live-fish think through hands. At least I know it'd be a lot less work than this post, and probably kind of fun too. :D
 
itsmebobd

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Wow... All I can say is wow... Maybe its just me, but I get a gut feeling on these kind of things which is right a lot, but I need to learn this. Going with your gut isnt going to be right enough to be positive ev+ :/ Im still learning, and trying to take my game to the next level, hopefully I can divulge some of this complex information and start to learn to apply it.
 
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stately7

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The weird thing was that he seemed surprised when I showed down aces. He shook my hand, as if my bet was really thin, and really well done. (Yet he called pretty quickly with a weak top pair.) What did he think I had then - air? It makes me want to do a follow-up post of the same hand, but from villain's perspective - kind of to show how I think live-fish think through hands. At least I know it'd be a lot less work than this post, and probably kind of fun too. :D

Yeah that'd be interesting too. Well, if and when time permits… do it!
 
itsmebobd

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"I expect we can bet $50-70 on this river and get Axcc to insta-muck. Which is an outrageously +EV play. We bet $70 to win $250, and he folds 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time we lose $70, and 1/3 of the time we win $250, so


EV = (1/3)($250) + (2/3)(-$70) = $83.33 - $46.67 = $36.66 EV"


hmm against Axcc sure, but how often will he be holding this in this situation?
 
Matt Vaughan

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Based on the ranges I gave (probably not exact, but probably close), 1/3 of the time. That's stated fairly explicitly - that's why I say that for that bluff we lose the bet amount 2/3 of the time, but win the pot 1/3 of the time.
 
JOEBOB69

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I'm not sure I follow what you're saying, JB? Are you saying to use it as the jumping off point for discussing most profitable lines? Because I agree with that. But I don't get what you mean how this would keep someone thinking about ranges incorrectly (as opposed to how HA threads work now, where most people don't even explain their thought process).

The main point of this is just to show the thought process in action - using ranges, narrowing them based on action, and then just starting to take baby steps toward making strong lines.
Yeah i didn't state my reasoning to well. An i prob want here. I just wouldn't want people to not get into a bad train of thought without any one to bounce ideas off of. Thinking poker podcast did like 40 min of what i'm tring to say, but hey i'm not that good of a talker.
 
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