Homework: Turn decision IP vs polarized range
I haven't actually analyzed this myself yet, but I wanted to start the thread anyway. With a little luck, someone else will end up doing it for me, and if nothing else it will remind me to come back and do it later.
Basic situation: $200NL, 100bb stacks. You open in late position with KQo, and the big blind - a 23/20 aggressive reg - calls in the BB. He 3-bets 10% in that position, and he folds his BB 70% of the time.
The flop comes K-7-4, two spades. You have the king of spades. You bet $9 into the $12 pot. Your opponent check/raises to $33. With the limited read you have on him, you decide that his range is primarily made up of flush draws, sets and "air" and here we include pocket pairs in the air (because he will play them the same - give up if called and doesn't improve).
I call his checkraise. I don't know if you do the same.
The turn is the 9 of diamonds, which changes very little. But he doesn't fire again, instead he checks.
This type of villain often does this with his entire range, I find. He checks with his flushdraws, hoping for a free card, and he checks with his sets hoping you'll bet. He checks with his air because he intends to give up now that you've called.
If you bet, he'll checkraise many of his flushdraws and all of his sets all-in. If you check back, he'll bet $60 on the river with most of his range, regardless of what the river is; if he has a set, he'll bet for value, if he has a flushdraw, he'll bet hoping you missed too (or if he hits his flush, he'll obviously bet as well) and he'll bet some of his air, too, hoping he can push you off TT or whatever.
What is the most profitable move on the turn given that? The cases that need to be analyzed are:
1. Bet/folding turn.
2. Bet/calling turn.
3. Checking back turn, calling river.