re: Poker & HOH3: Bubble play in SnGs
Are u suggesting we fold this?? We already have 600 invested and its only another 400 to call when the SB range could have absolutely anything??? This is an absolute instant call with pretty much any two cards.
As I said, it really depends on the situation. In a normal tournament, I call anytime, but in a turbo, with blinds increasing steadily, if we're 4 handed with 3 other small stacks at our table and the blinds will increase very shortly, the pushing range of the SB will really become ATC. 88 is really very ahead against small PP. Our opponent could have a bigger one (doubtful, but he could also have hands such as A9 or Alittle suited, wich aren't that big underdogs compared to us). Heck, even 10-9 has two overcards to our pair and I doubt any opponent won't push with at least one over, so we are either dominated or a small to medium favorite to win the hand. With 5000 as described, we really have an edge chipwise. If we lose, we drop to 5000 (with someone at around 2,5k) and everybody has around the same number of chips with you having a bit more. Stealing will be harder and sundenly our M has dropped to a blind less.
If I'm dealt 88 in the SB in this situation, I push without any hesitation since I have the added fold equity that make my hand more desirable (and yes, in low buy-in, some people become so weak-tight as to fold to this in the BB with an M<2.5). I'd be reluctant to call an all-in at this stage with 88 yes since we gain little and can lose a lot. Plus, we have to remember that once iTM, the small stacks will be more than willing to make plays to get to the top, thus we should blind steal more while they are scared to lose their buy-in.
So yes, in some very rare situations, I believe that folding such a hand, unless we have great reads on the agressor, to be wiser for our tournament life. If we steal the same number of chips as we let others steal, our chipstack insures that we will always be the last to get anted out. While we don't want to have to call a default all-in from the blinds (since we cannot pick our spot), waiting to give action might put more pressure on the SB or even widen his range of pushing hands (desperation push). My example might have been too extreme, but do you call this if the blinds are 150/3 and your opponent had 2700? I'd probably say no since you have only 1/3 chips and will exchange position on the chip leader board plus your M would drop. At this point in the SNG, we want to win by attrition and give the final blow when we hit a hand (everybody steal every hand anyway so we figure we'll get action).