Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar
Im reluctant to jump on the downswing wagon and say your losses are purely down to a downswing.
Im more inclined to think that you just arent playing that well than are playing well and getting very unlucky because the avearge 50NL player isnt all that great to begin with.
I dont like to start bringing the term variance in until we can first establish that you are indeed playing really really well.
I think varience is self defeating, if you attribute all your losses to bad luck and all your wins to skill then there isnt anything to improve on in your game. I think unless your a 1000NL reg then there are tonnes of things to improve on so I think varience is just a term used to cover over leaks in your game.
Most people seem to find that the more hands they post and the more feedback they get the less varience they suffer.
Usually what's happening is you get outdrawn in a few pots and you hit the top of someone's range in a few more and you attribute all your losses to those few big pots, ignoring all the 5bb her and 15 bb there pots that overtime dwarf your losses in big pots that you get sucked out on.
I think I now realize that there are only two essential
behaviors to being a successful poker player.
Quite simply a player cannot
afford to go on Tilt.
variance is when you lose multiple hands that you were a favorite to win, especially after all the money is in and skill can play no further part in the hand.
A good poker player's skill only gives them a small edge over a bad one, probably 55/45 or something. Variance can remove that edge. Tilt can actually reverse that edge.
I'm guessing 99% of all Poker players suffer from tilt with the inevitability that Agent Smith speaks of. Therefore to succeed one must be absolutely in tune to one's own feelings and nip incipient tilt in the bud. Failure to do so will result in a rapid degradation of one's bankroll. So when you get AIPF w/ AA vs KK and villain flops a set of Kings you either need to honestly
be able to carry on without being affected.
or you need to get off the tables.
So, if you are feeling sorry for yourself and think you are cursed with bad luck then you have no business playing. You will just tilt away more money.
Trust me. I have been there.