Help. Overpairs losing to Sets....again and again

A

Aleeki

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Hi guys,

This is a huge leak in my game at the moment and I think I know what I need to do but need some reassurance.

Lets say I have K K (a common hand I seem to lose big with).

Theres a limped from MP and I raise 4 x BB +1 on the button.

Flop comes:

2 6 9 rainbow.

Now here I am thinking this is a great flop for me right?

So MP player checks and I bet 3/4 pot. MP calls.... hmmmmm.

Is it at this point that I should be thinking...SET!? Maybe not? But what else does he call with ? A 9? 7 8? (Remember I raised PF too)

So lets say the turn comes:

Turn: J.

MP checks again? I bet 3/4 pot again. MP then reraises me!!!

Now should i be thinking SET?! Should I be laying down my kings here?

Maybe and im thinking this is what I should do is Check behind on the turn to negate the chance for anyone to check-raise. Is this an option?

I guess it probably comes down to small hand/small pot, big hand/big pot, but should I really be laying my kings down (or Aces etc) to any sort of aggression?

Now I know what you are probably going to say....that it comes down to read, stack sizes, table dynamics etc and I understand all this, but I would really like a reasonably general answer. Eg, we have just sat down at the table and we both have 100BB stacks.

I seem to lose the plot when facing aggression when I have big overs and not believe my opponents raise. Maybe I don't respect it enough?

For the above example do thing change if he just calls the turn? Do we then check behind on the river fearing the check raise or do we value bet to all hell.

Again, reads are very important I know but whether my opponent is LAG or TAG or passive or whatever I still seem to be stacking off with my overpairs and when I look at my Pokertracker stats for Aces and Kings they are extremely depressing!

Any help/feedback or critisism is appreciated and valuable.
 
KyleJRM

KyleJRM

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It really depends on level and read. For some players in some situations, this is a leak. For others, it's a cooler and it feels worse because it is emotional.
 
C

CantBluffme

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make a small bet ( half of the pot),to find out where you at. when a other raises you.he must have a set. but looking at flop. it is danger for you or not
 
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RamdeeBen

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If a board is coming like that and you have top pair, you're always going broke and not letting the hand go. It's to hard to put someone on a set so I don't think its bad play to go all in with. More times than not your top pair will profit than being out dont by a set. Long term your kings are holding up and you're making money. I think a set is only 7-1 odds so, i'm sure you can do the maths on it.

The point is, you have put enough money in the pot by the point he re-raises I'd always have to call..
 
KardKlub

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Bit of advice.

Start continuation betting smaller like just over half

50 into a 90 etc.
This allows you to get called by worse and gives better hands a reason to want to raise you to build a pot.

If you do bet bigger because they are fishy then that's okay too.

On a blank turn bet just over half again. If you get jammed on then you can fold without investing to much.

Apart from all in pre these big pp are over rated post flop and should be played like any other top pair hand on the flop.

Unless of course as you mentioned you have history or you know there tilting etc
 
REI53

REI53

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Try to control the pot size...if u run into sets atleast u won't loose that much.
 
MrEpic94

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are you tracking your play with software? If so filter for overpairs on the flop and post those stats.

Could also just be bad luck with the number of sets being hit vs your overpairs.
 
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papatango123

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try betting more preflop like a 5x or 6x to filter out people with small pocket pairs. and if u get called on flop with a board like the one that u have mentioned alarm bells have to be ringing.
 
dd_decker

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It happens, but it shouldn't happen as often as you are implying. Most of the time, your Kings will be the best hand. That's when you have to pay attention to your opponents. If it is a tight player who is calling/raising you, he probably has you beat. If it a loose player, he may be bluffing or maybe he hit top or middle pair on the flop, so your Kings should still be best. 4 bet him and take your chances....:cool:
 
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Zybomb

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One option is to pot control a lot with 1 pair hands. When someone limp calls preflop this is a pocket pair often. If they c/c a dry board, you can check behind the turn for various reasons

1- It pot controls when they flopped a set
2- It disguises your hand strength, thus they are more likely to call with a weaker hand if you bet the river
3- It lets them bluff the river

It comes down to how villains will play middle pairs against you.

Opponents Hand: 77

Opponents Action: Limp/Calls preflop

Flop: 9s 6c 2d

You bet, he naturally calls (standard)

Turn: 4h

You bet he....

If he calls

river Js

You bet he...

If the answer is not calls in both the turn and river, then we can not get 3 streets of value out of an overpair against him, hence we should be pot controlling the turn for the reaosns above while still getting the max 2 streets of value that we would get by betting.

If opponent plays straight forward and calls loosely, the turn is an easy bet bc it is a very easy fold if we get c/r'd, since we know he won't c/r with less than 1 pair and his calling range includes many hands we beat
 
T

ThunderPT

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In the situation you described, with no draws, unless he's a passive fish, I'm checking behind on the turn. A second barrell will fold everything we beat, only the hands that beat us will continue and there's also no way they're going to fold. If we do have him beat, he has at most 5 outs so we don't risk much by giving him a free card and our check will widen his calling range on the river so we get maximum value. If he has us beat, we're keeping the pot small and won't lose our whole stack on the river.
 
Orcusan

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try betting more preflop like a 5x or 6x to filter out people with small pocket pairs. and if u get called on flop with a board like the one that u have mentioned alarm bells have to be ringing.

Doesnt sound like a really good advice to me. Some people no matter the bet (maybe unless its all in) just cant seem to lay down their pocket pairs. So by increasing his bet size he only makes a big pot and makes it even harder for them to fold their pair and so by the turn or river they hit and he is facing a guy with trips and a bigger pot on which the guy with trips will be even more aggressive.
Spotting a hidden set on a board is pretty tricky and its even more tricky to convince yourself to lay down your big overpair but it's something any player that aspires to be good must learn in time. "Texas hold'em , because you must know when to hold'em and when to fold'em". The best advice i can give , sorry if it doesnt help much.
 
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watchtowel

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I would normally try to control the pot size with an overpair, when alarm bells go off like you said on the turn try to get to a cheap showdown. A lot of players might raise the turn with an overpair, so they might have queens. I normally wouldn't fold in the scenario you described. Doesn't happen often for me either.
 
A

asiancurse

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Well If you have any kind of read he has a set, than C-bet, check turn, and call his raise.
You should C-bet then Bet the turn and check the river
If he makes a big bet on the river your most likely beat, it also depends on the stakes you play. Higher stakes will be best.
Pretty much play smart and try to lose the minimum.
 
WVHillbilly

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I think half of the people in this thread have gone mad. Pot control with overpairs at presumably micro stakes?

Bet/Bet/Bet if they keep calling and generally fold when they raise. This is Beluga Theorem all the way. You can still get three streets of value from overpairs. Not everyone is solid.
 
T

ThunderPT

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I think half of the people in this thread have gone mad. Pot control with overpairs at presumably micro stakes?

Bet/Bet/Bet if they keep calling and generally fold when they raise. This is Beluga Theorem all the way. You can still get three streets of value from overpairs. Not everyone is solid.

Like I said, unless he's a passive fish... If he is, I'm actually potting flop and turn and I'm willing to get it all in on the river. But just because this is the micros it doesn't mean all players are like this, sometimes it's actually hard to get into tables with players like this, so I'm assuming we're up against a decent player. Against most players, a turn bet will chase away every hand that we beat other than top pair and we'd get more value by checking and widening his calling range on the river. It's also a way of balancing our strategy for all the times we cbet with nothing and check the turn, let them know we can cbet/check with a hand.
 
WVHillbilly

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Why would you ever assume you're up against a decent player. Assume everyone is bad until proven otherwise.
 
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Big_Rudy

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Why would you ever assume you're up against a decent player. Assume everyone is bad until proven otherwise.

Wow, short little response there, but it has given me a LOT to think about. I usually approach the game just the opposite. Without a decent-size sampling for my HUD, I just assume everyone is decent without some evidence otherwise. Still.... I AM in the micros, so your approach makes more sense at these levels. I'm going to have to think about this and think about implementing this mindset into my play. Hmmm.... Thanks, (I think).
 
WVHillbilly

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Wow, short little response there, but it has given me a LOT to think about. I usually approach the game just the opposite. Without a decent-size sampling for my HUD, I just assume everyone is decent without some evidence otherwise. Still.... I AM in the micros, so your approach makes more sense at these levels. I'm going to have to think about this and think about implementing this mindset into my play. Hmmm.... Thanks, (I think).

Trust me, you'll make way more money stacking all the idiots than you'll lose the few times you're up against a competent unknown.
 
NineLions

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I think half of the people in this thread have gone mad. Pot control with overpairs at presumably micro stakes?

Bet/Bet/Bet if they keep calling and generally fold when they raise. This is Beluga Theorem all the way. You can still get three streets of value from overpairs. Not everyone is solid.


QFT


One other thought to throw out; if you're a nit and you only play the big hands, that makes you a prime target for set mining or any other kind of big hand/big payout mining, including with gapped suited connectors or maybe even suited Aces.
 
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fx20736

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Wow, short little response there, but it has given me a LOT to think about. I usually approach the game just the opposite. Without a decent-size sampling for my HUD, I just assume everyone is decent without some evidence otherwise. Still.... I AM in the micros, so your approach makes more sense at these levels. I'm going to have to think about this and think about implementing this mindset into my play. Hmmm.... Thanks, (I think).

QFT
One other thought to throw out; if you're a nit and you only play the big hands, that makes you a prime target for set mining or any other kind of big hand/big payout mining, including with gapped suited connectors or maybe even suited Aces.


When it comes to overpairs there is a HUGE difference in postlop playability and EV between AA/KK and QQ/JJ. first of all from EP for all of these my preflop raise is always 5-10xbb (depending on table conditions).
When I 3 bet I re-raise 4x the original raiser's amount.

Next with AA I just mash the pot button on all 3 streets unless the board has powerful draws and then I'll overbet the pot. At 2nl lots of smaller overpairs and top pairs will call off most of their stack on 3 streets this way. Pretty much the only time I slow down with AA is if the board has 4 cards of the same suit and I don't have an A in that suit. I'll check/call the turn but will fold on the river here to a big bet, I figure it's about 50/50 that they have a card in that suit.

With KK pretty similair but obviously if an A hits I slow down, check/ call the flop and check/fold the turn.

If someone's call PFR is say 10% and they would re-raise big pairs then pocket pairs are only about 1/3 of their range so the chance of running into a set here is around 3%. Be more more worried about straights and flushes.

I play AA/ KK fast & hard. Sometimes I get set mined but they are HUGE profit makers and if your preflop raise is big set mining you becomes less EV.


With QQ & JJ I don't play them anywhere near as aggressively as villain could have an overpair and it's not worth going broke with either vs a set or 2 pair, so preflop I'll usually fold to a 3bet or 4bet with QQ/JJ. After the flop I'll c-bet if I flop an overpair but usually 1/2 pot and then same on turn. If I get re-raised I'm usually done.
 
CerberAcE

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With overpairs it can be difficult to know where you stand vs aggression in the micros. You often see people overplaying missed AK/AQo hands and even stacking off without a pair. And many will stack off with TPGK so it can be hard folding the big overpair with these types of plays happening on a regular basis.

I went through a bad run where my AA was constantly being over taken by gutshots on the turn..but sets have stung me as well.

I guess notes and hud stats can help u decide if ur beat or not.
 
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Big_Rudy

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QFT


One other thought to throw out; if you're a nit and you only play the big hands, that makes you a prime target for set mining or any other kind of big hand/big payout mining, including with gapped suited connectors or maybe even suited Aces.

This is/was exactly my problem at the full buy-in tables. Constantly getting run-down with unexpected draws. Since I am naturally a nit, if I Raise pre people call knowing full-well I'll have a difficult time getting away from my overpair. My game isn't good enough to come up with a solution. Every time I try to be less nitty, I end up having big losing sessions. My solution, at least for now, is to simply play the short buy-in tables. Denies most people the odds to try to chase me down when I raise big pre. Not an ideal solution, I know, but its working OK for me up to now.
 
F

fx20736

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This is/was exactly my problem at the full buy-in tables. Constantly getting run-down with unexpected draws. Since I am naturally a nit, if I Raise pre people call knowing full-well I'll have a difficult time getting away from my overpair. My game isn't good enough to come up with a solution. Every time I try to be less nitty, I end up having big losing sessions. My solution, at least for now, is to simply play the short buy-in tables. Denies most people the odds to try to chase me down when I raise big pre. Not an ideal solution, I know, but its working OK for me up to now.

This is a table selection/ BRM issue. If you choose tables full of loose,bad players you can usually bet pot on 3 streets with overpairs until you are re-raised.
You cannot play scared, getting stacked is part of playing NLHE. If you are playing at proper stakes for your bankroll losing buy-ins with AA & KK should not deter you from playing these hands fast.

There are times when the board and villain's line is telling you you're beat but don't assume every time calls your pf raise and c-bet that they flopped a set.

AA & KK

YouTube - Judas Priest - You've got another thing coming
 
kidkvno1

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I think half of the people in this thread have gone mad. Pot control with overpairs at presumably micro stakes?

Bet/Bet/Bet if they keep calling and generally fold when they raise. This is Beluga Theorem all the way. You can still get three streets of value from overpairs. Not everyone is solid.
^^^^^ this.
i am going all-in on that flop, seeing if he wants to come for a ride:D
 
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