Help Me Lose Less Big Pots.

ventrolloquist

ventrolloquist

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Hi guys. Looking at my hand histories / winnings graph I noticed I've got a red line that's going up but then I lose a lot of big pots. Usually it's things like some passive player hitting a flush on the turn after the flop goes check-check and reraising my turn probe and me calling (giving them no credit for any flushes). Or somone hitting their river out vs. my set or top pair/kicker. Basically I win a lot before showdown but get screwed by nut hands that get there, I bet the appropriate amounts to deny equity but then often get called and end up giving good implied odds to villain. Other times it's something like me barelling 3 streets with top pair/kicker on a dry flop and being called 3 streets by overpair, 2 pair, or better.

This is at micros btw. Any tips? Is there a certain mindset I can adopt to avoid spewing all my pre showdown winnings in one hand?
 
Aballinamion

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High Variance means what?

Hi guys. Looking at my hand histories / winnings graph I noticed I've got a red line that's going up but then I lose a lot of big pots. Usually it's things like some passive player hitting a flush on the turn after the flop goes check-check and reraising my turn probe and me calling (giving them no credit for any flushes). Or somone hitting their river out vs. my set or top pair/kicker. Basically I win a lot before showdown but get screwed by nut hands that get there, I bet the appropriate amounts to deny equity but then often get called and end up giving good implied odds to villain. Other times it's something like me barelling 3 streets with top pair/kicker on a dry flop and being called 3 streets by overpair, 2 pair, or better.

This is at micros btw. Any tips? Is there a certain mindset I can adopt to avoid spewing all my pre showdown winnings in one hand?

Pot Control


Hello there friend Nick! Thank you very much for your question. I saw a thread of yours where you were talking about tilting situations versus recreational players (they pay anything). I couldn't reply that answer because I am very busy doing a ton of things about poker, but I promisse that I will take a look ASAP. :)

Cash Game Goals

I rather win 100 pots of 3 blinds than 1 single pot of 100 blinds. Why is that? Because when I win 100 pots of 3 blinds I made 300 blinds without:

A) High Variance
B) Tilt

As bigger the pots, as bigger the action, as bigger the aggressiveness we invest in one single hand, a session or a group of sessions, BIGGER the emotions, whether they are positive or negative emotions (check Polished Poker Vol I https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214// where I took part of these ideas).
The problem that at the micros the ammount invested seem ludicrous. If you consider only the brute value of the money, not the blinds. Consider always the ammount of blinds invested not the ammount of money because:

100 blinds at 2 NLHE = USD 2
100 blinds at 100 NLHE = USD 100

We are playing a blinds game, not a game with money. Many people forget this when it comes to a cash table, because there is no ICM, and the blinds could signify money, but they not!
What I am trying to say is that at Cash Tables, no matter if 2 NLHE or 100 NLHE, we are almost always playing for:

A) Steal the blinds preflop and not to pay rake
B) Take down a bunch of small pots (from 3 to 10 blinds for example)

Our gameplan at a cash tables revolves around the Late Positions (6-Max), so we must be very good on stealing blinds CO vs BTN vs Blinds vs CO preflop.

Let's picture an example, because it might seem quite abstract what I am trying to put here:

1) Hero is in the CO with AA, 100 blinds ES, raises to 3x and a very known Whale, 98 blinds ES calls from the SB, the rest fold and we are going flop heads-up:
Flop comes A92 with a flush draw. You know that this guy loves to pay and you make a 1/2 pot c-bet. Whale form the SB check-raises you and now you have two options:

A) Call to shove turn/river
B) Shove the flop itself

Let's suppose that you decided to 3-bet jam the flop. In this situation you have the nuts for the flop and Whale/SB calls your shove with any Flush Draw and hits the flush turn/river.
There was nothing else we could do, it is what it is right? Okay, but this is a high variance spot for nature, everytime we decide to go all-in on the flop with anything that is not the stone cold nuts, we are putting ourselves into these mathematical possibilities:

A) We are winning 90/10
B) We are winning 70/30
C) We are winning 60/40

The best case for us is when we are 90%, but even so 10% is a great number and Villains will hit it once in a while. Now the elements B and C, are almost breakeven, because if we shove Top Set on the Flop versus OESD+FD we are almost even! Villain will have 40% equity in spite of missing the flop completely. And we are going to tilt very easy, because we are not Gods! It is massive to lose a pot of 100 blinds, but the odds for these kind of pots will be always the same:

Example: you have KK preflop versus a whale who 5-bets shoves upon your head. You are investing 100 blinds to win 200 blinds right? Odds are 1:2? What is that suppose to mean? That we are going to win a pot of 200 one time and lose 100 blinds another, but all of this without rake. Yup, you call shove with KK versus fishish and it has AJ and hits the Ace on the river, it sucks but we knew the odds when we decided to jam.
We don't want to make the pot grow unless if necessary and we are not playing "hands" like most of the players.
So, in a situation where you hit Top Set on the flop, and you playing versus a Whale "Flush Chaser" type and it checks the flop to you, one of the options is that you go by checking back and see if the turn completes its straights or flushes. It seems ludicrous checking such a strong value hand, but we are not playing optimal if we c-bet and raise the nuts a 100% of times (or if we do anything a 100% of times for example).
Some players will argue that you must charge from its draws, but this works for players who use to think a litttle the game, not whales who are only looking down their hole cards and making non-sense decision making.

Charging flushes and straights to commit ourselves?

Okay, we are going to charge a very large price for the flushes on the flop and on the turn. When it completes Villain's flushes/straights on the river, we already put so much chips on the boat that we will look weak, ridiculous if we fold, okay? Yes, and we don't want to look ridiculous folding 40 blinds ES on the river for a pot over 200 blinds!
So, why are we charging flushes/straights so hard, for when they come we could not leave whatever we have, such as TPTK, Two Pairs and Sets?
I don't mind at all making small pots at cash tables, even with the top of my range!

Example from 100 NLHE, old hand that I played a long time ago:

I am in the BTN with KQo, 120 blinds ES and raise to 2.5x, SB folds and a regular from the BB, with 100 blinds ES 3-bets, I call. Flop comes KAA, BB comes for 1/3 pot, I call. Turn comes another A and BB comes for 2/3 pot I call. No point in raising here: if it has KK we are even, if it has a K we are even, and sometimes it will have an Ace and we are not even.
My plan in this hand was very simple: if BB bets river again, I am folding my Full-House, because given that the board blocks almost all the combinations of Ax that Villain could have, and the Kx are even, I believe that only a crazy player would be bluffing this river with whatever and the opponent was a regular and checked river. It didn't had any Ax, but we are not playing for results, we are playing our range versus limited information range.
We don't need to build 100 blinds pots in a high frequency, because this means more tension, more adrenaline and if we don't have a wooden heart we are going to breakdown and go mad sooner than later.
Try to fight for small pots as much as you can and make effort to run away from big pots, unless there is no other alternative. Try to exercise pot control, try to find some checks on your range because if we are simply betting, betting, betting because "aggression prints money", we are not different from the Aggro Donkeys or Whales.
For example, I have a pretty fair checking range when I am out of position, no matter with what hands! If I open AA from MP, BTN calls, and flop comes AKQ, for example, I am simply checking, I don't want to make the pot grow here, I am blocking almost all the aces, AK, AQ, etc and Villain can have Tx or Jx that is not going to fold easy. When I make the pot grows too much when there is too many draws on it, I simply wouldn't leave my equity on the river and then lose big pots and start to go insane.
As smaller the pots we fights for it, small the rake and small the adrenaline: try to think about it! ;)

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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ventrolloquist

ventrolloquist

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Pot Control


Hello there friend Nick! Thank you very much for your question. I saw a thread of yours where you were talking about tilting situations versus recreational players (they pay anything). I couldn't reply that answer because I am very busy doing a ton of things about poker, but I promisse that I will take a look ASAP. :)

Cash Game Goals

I rather win 100 pots of 3 blinds than 1 single pot of 100 blinds. Why is that? Because when I win 100 pots of 3 blinds I made 300 blinds without:

A) High Variance
B) Tilt

As bigger the pots, as bigger the action, as bigger the aggressiveness we invest in one single hand, a session or a group of sessions, BIGGER the emotions, whether they are positive or negative emotions (check Polished Poker Vol I https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214// where I took part of these ideas).
The problem that at the micros the ammount invested seem ludicrous. If you consider only the brute value of the money, not the blinds. Consider always the ammount of blinds invested not the ammount of money because:

100 blinds at 2 NLHE = USD 2
100 blinds at 100 NLHE = USD 100

We are playing a blinds game, not a game with money. Many people forget this when it comes to a cash table, because there is no ICM, and the blinds could signify money, but they not!
What I am trying to say is that at Cash Tables, no matter if 2 NLHE or 100 NLHE, we are almost always playing for:

A) Steal the blinds preflop and not to pay rake
B) Take down a bunch of small pots (from 3 to 10 blinds for example)

Our gameplan at a cash tables revolves around the Late Positions (6-Max), so we must be very good on stealing blinds CO vs BTN vs Blinds vs CO preflop.

Let's picture an example, because it might seem quite abstract what I am trying to put here:

1) Hero is in the CO with AA, 100 blinds ES, raises to 3x and a very known Whale, 98 blinds ES calls from the SB, the rest fold and we are going flop heads-up:
Flop comes A92 with a flush draw. You know that this guy loves to pay and you make a 1/2 pot c-bet. Whale form the SB check-raises you and now you have two options:

A) Call to shove turn/river
B) Shove the flop itself

Let's suppose that you decided to 3-bet jam the flop. In this situation you have the nuts for the flop and Whale/SB calls your shove with any Flush Draw and hits the flush turn/river.
There was nothing else we could do, it is what it is right? Okay, but this is a high variance spot for nature, everytime we decide to go all-in on the flop with anything that is not the stone cold nuts, we are putting ourselves into these mathematical possibilities:

A) We are winning 90/10
B) We are winning 70/30
C) We are winning 60/40

The best case for us is when we are 90%, but even so 10% is a great number and Villains will hit it once in a while. Now the elements B and C, are almost breakeven, because if we shove Top Set on the Flop versus OESD+FD we are almost even! Villain will have 40% equity in spite of missing the flop completely. And we are going to tilt very easy, because we are not Gods! It is massive to lose a pot of 100 blinds, but the odds for these kind of pots will be always the same:

Example: you have KK preflop versus a whale who 5-bets shoves upon your head. You are investing 100 blinds to win 200 blinds right? Odds are 1:2? What is that suppose to mean? That we are going to win a pot of 200 one time and lose 100 blinds another, but all of this without rake. Yup, you call shove with KK versus fishish and it has AJ and hits the Ace on the river, it sucks but we knew the odds when we decided to jam.
We don't want to make the pot grow unless if necessary and we are not playing "hands" like most of the players.
So, in a situation where you hit Top Set on the flop, and you playing versus a Whale "Flush Chaser" type and it checks the flop to you, one of the options is that you go by checking back and see if the turn completes its straights or flushes. It seems ludicrous checking such a strong value hand, but we are not playing optimal if we c-bet and raise the nuts a 100% of times (or if we do anything a 100% of times for example).
Some players will argue that you must charge from its draws, but this works for players who use to think a litttle the game, not whales who are only looking down their hole cards and making non-sense decision making.

Charging flushes and straights to commit ourselves?

Okay, we are going to charge a very large price for the flushes on the flop and on the turn. When it completes Villain's flushes/straights on the river, we already put so much chips on the boat that we will look weak, ridiculous if we fold, okay? Yes, and we don't want to look ridiculous folding 40 blinds ES on the river for a pot over 200 blinds!
So, why are we charging flushes/straights so hard, for when they come we could not leave whatever we have, such as TPTK, Two Pairs and Sets?
I don't mind at all making small pots at cash tables, even with the top of my range!

Example from 100 NLHE, old hand that I played a long time ago:

I am in the BTN with KQo, 120 blinds ES and raise to 2.5x, SB folds and a regular from the BB, with 100 blinds ES 3-bets, I call. Flop comes KAA, BB comes for 1/3 pot, I call. Turn comes another A and BB comes for 2/3 pot I call. No point in raising here: if it has KK we are even, if it has a K we are even, and sometimes it will have an Ace and we are not even.
My plan in this hand was very simple: if BB bets river again, I am folding my Full-House, because given that the board blocks almost all the combinations of Ax that Villain could have, and the Kx are even, I believe that only a crazy player would be bluffing this river with whatever and the opponent was a regular and checked river. It didn't had any Ax, but we are not playing for results, we are playing our range versus limited information range.
We don't need to build 100 blinds pots in a high frequency, because this means more tension, more adrenaline and if we don't have a wooden heart we are going to breakdown and go mad sooner than later.
Try to fight for small pots as much as you can and make effort to run away from big pots, unless there is no other alternative. Try to exercise pot control, try to find some checks on your range because if we are simply betting, betting, betting because "aggression prints money", we are not different from the Aggro Donkeys or Whales.
For example, I have a pretty fair checking range when I am out of position, no matter with what hands! If I open AA from MP, BTN calls, and flop comes AKQ, for example, I am simply checking, I don't want to make the pot grow here, I am blocking almost all the aces, AK, AQ, etc and Villain can have Tx or Jx that is not going to fold easy. When I make the pot grows too much when there is too many draws on it, I simply wouldn't leave my equity on the river and then lose big pots and start to go insane.
As smaller the pots we fights for it, small the rake and small the adrenaline: try to think about it! ;)

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
Thanks so much Carlos, gonna reread this a few times. It's very helpful [emoji4]

I actually also check OOP on many wet boards even with a good hand.

Today I folded a J of clubs on a 4 flush club board when villain made a massive river overbet. He was a fishy villain who would 4bet shove trash ace hands pre but I didn't want to risk it lol. I think I've made progress today letting go of hands in marginal spots but I really feel like I may have lost massive value.
 
ventrolloquist

ventrolloquist

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Pot Control


Hello there friend Nick! Thank you very much for your question. I saw a thread of yours where you were talking about tilting situations versus recreational players (they pay anything). I couldn't reply that answer because I am very busy doing a ton of things about poker, but I promisse that I will take a look ASAP. :)

Cash Game Goals
...
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa


ps: Very thankful to have people like you with a passion for teaching poker on here :)
 
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dgroes

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Hi guys. Looking at my hand histories / winnings graph I noticed I've got a red line that's going up but then I lose a lot of big pots. Usually it's things like some passive player hitting a flush on the turn after the flop goes check-check and reraising my turn probe and me calling (giving them no credit for any flushes). Or somone hitting their river out vs. my set or top pair/kicker. Basically I win a lot before showdown but get screwed by nut hands that get there, I bet the appropriate amounts to deny equity but then often get called and end up giving good implied odds to villain. Other times it's something like me barelling 3 streets with top pair/kicker on a dry flop and being called 3 streets by overpair, 2 pair, or better.

This is at micros btw. Any tips? Is there a certain mindset I can adopt to avoid spewing all my pre showdown winnings in one hand?

have a max bet stack in mind for each time you think you win. live to survive the day if you are wrong...
hope it helps?
 
F

fundiver199

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Basically you need to learn to fold, when you only beat a bluff, and your opponent is not bluffing often enough. Maybe try for a period to go in the opposite direction and fold on the river every single time, you only beat a bluff, and see what that does to your results. In theory it will then become very profitable to bluff you, but chances are, your opponents wont know that, and they wont take advantage of it.
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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Basically you need to learn to fold, when you only beat a bluff, and your opponent is not bluffing often enough. Maybe try for a period to go in the opposite direction and fold on the river every single time, you only beat a bluff, and see what that does to your results. In theory it will then become very profitable to bluff you, but chances are, your opponents wont know that, and they wont take advantage of it.

Yes, nice point fundiver199, recreational players never play enough hands sample, and even if they do, they will not realize how often you are folding river. Actually, at the micros, not even the regulars will have a great picture, unless you have played at minimum 5 thousands hands with it, even so I assume it is a small number for river statistics: a volume of 20 thousands hands would be good, not perfect, for making assumptions HUD-based on the river, so no problem, in theory, if we are exploitatively folding many rivers or bluffing many rivers.
Recreational players and even some regulars never bluff enough on rivers that we might allow ourselves to be Hero-Calling with dominated hands. We must Hero Call complicated rivers when we have a huge sample of NOTES made by ourselves, not HUD stats.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
ventrolloquist

ventrolloquist

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Basically you need to learn to fold, when you only beat a bluff, and your opponent is not bluffing often enough. Maybe try for a period to go in the opposite direction and fold on the river every single time, you only beat a bluff, and see what that does to your results. In theory it will then become very profitable to bluff you, but chances are, your opponents wont know that, and they wont take advantage of it.


Yes, nice point fundiver199, recreational players never play enough hands sample, and even if they do, they will not realize how often you are folding river. Actually, at the micros, not even the regulars will have a great picture, unless you have played at minimum 5 thousands hands with it, even so I assume it is a small number for river statistics: a volume of 20 thousands hands would be good, not perfect, for making assumptions HUD-based on the river, so no problem, in theory, if we are exploitatively folding many rivers or bluffing many rivers.
Recreational players and even some regulars never bluff enough on rivers that we might allow ourselves to be Hero-Calling with dominated hands. We must Hero Call complicated rivers when we have a huge sample of NOTES made by ourselves, not HUD stats.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Any tips for what hud stat(s) to resort to to determine if villain on bets value on river or has bluffs mixed in (or overbluffs)?

I know for flop 33% call flop cbet (and 66% F to CB) is the magic number that tells me I'm up against a fit or fold player. What should I be looking at on the river to determine the same (on wet coordinated boards)?
 
Evan Jarvis

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Any tips for what hud stat(s) to resort to to determine if villain on bets value on river or has bluffs mixed in (or overbluffs)?

I know for flop 33% call flop cbet (and 66% F to CB) is the magic number that tells me I'm up against a fit or fold player. What should I be looking at on the river to determine the same (on wet coordinated boards)?


Add river aggression frequency to your hud

<30 usually has it
>40 is often bluffing

in between, playing a mix.

I love having this stat on my HUD for close spots on the river.

But do remember when playing vs tight players who have a high fold to turn cbet, often when they make it to the river they have extremely strong hands, and you have to be willing to believe some people because the river bets are the ones that are most costly...


hope that helps! :cool:
 
shane4050

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Add river aggression frequency to your hud

<30 usually has it
>40 is often bluffing

in between, playing a mix.

I love having this stat on my HUD for close spots on the river.

But do remember when playing vs tight players who have a high fold to turn cbet, often when they make it to the river they have extremely strong hands, and you have to be willing to believe some people because the river bets are the ones that are most costly...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9r5S5P5s34

hope that helps! :cool:


Going to focus on this stat in my hud today and check it out with some of the tight regs i play with good recommendation
 
ventrolloquist

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Add river aggression frequency to your hud

<30 usually has it
>40 is often bluffing

in between, playing a mix.

I love having this stat on my HUD for close spots on the river.

But do remember when playing vs tight players who have a high fold to turn cbet, often when they make it to the river they have extremely strong hands, and you have to be willing to believe some people because the river bets are the ones that are most costly...


hope that helps! :cool:
Amazing, solid info, thanks Evan! So basically look at fold to CB and River aggression together :D
 
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