Originally Posted by acky100
Yep dogmeat i get what you're saying, obviously a 10000 player mtt will be oozing variance compared. maybe i worded it wrong i dont know, all i meant was just like 6max has more variance that FR due to wider ranges, HU will have even more surely? as ranges are so wide you could easily lose 15 buyins in HUsng's and have played good, whereas losing 15 buyins in a day in cash games could happen but im sure its less common if you're playing good. Im probably wrong and am mixing sng's with cash so ill just shut up now
Your logic is somewhat flawed. Yes, you can play perfectly and still lose, but that happens maybe even more often in cash games, with multi-way pots and so on. It really depends on the structure of the HUSNG, if you're playing turbos then yes, there may be a little bit more variance than a cash game. But if you're playing normal speeds then they have as much or maybe less variance than cash games, mainly because there is a lot less shoving early on and if you're at least half decent you'll have a big edge over your opponent.
Most players play way too tightly in the bigger blind levels, so you should have a decent edge here too, albeit with a lot more variance. But, all in all, HUSNGs have little variance because you can have a relatively large winrate, 60% is standard for the lower stakes. If you have a 60% WR in a 9-handed SNG you'd be god.
Variance is pretty much the difference between your biggest loss and your biggest win. And in HUSNGs, the difference is pretty small. You either win 1BI or you lose 1BI. And you have a 60% probability of winning 1 BI.
In a FR SNG, though, you have a lot less chance of winning, hence you end up losing more. But when you do win, it's usually more than 1 BI. So the difference between your lowest and your highest point on your win-graph should be quite more substantial.
If you tilt, though, you may lose BI after BI and at the end of the day be 10BI down or something ridiculous like that. So just don't tilt
To get a grasp of how big variance is in MTTs, consider the following example:
You have a huge Call Of Duty map, and you drop 10K players on it with full ammo and so on. There's weapons and ammo everywhere. Snipers, assault rifles, mines, mortars, care packages, all the shitz.
It's very probable that at the end there will be 10-12 very good players. But it's also very probable that one of these good players be shot in the head by some noob, or blown to pieces by some stray grenade. There's also a big chance that one of these noobs finds a way to escape all the pros and actually live to the end.
Yes, skill is more than luck, but luck plays a huge
role in that big of a field.