Old Hat I know!

T

TopFuel

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Total posts
29
Awards
1
Chips
0
Hi
I realise that this subject gets huge forum time so apologies for starting it up again but it really is personal to your own circumstances and I would appreciates some views please.
Been playing 12+ years losing player overall. Mainly played MTTs but now spending more time playing cash at micro levels online.
I have a Poker coach but he doesnt coach cash and is wise enough to admit that.
My problem (well one of them anyway is around that old chestnut variance) I can never be sure if my results are good / bad / indifferent / to be expected normal etc etc.
Current state of play is:
Full ring 1/2 cent NLHE multi tabling from 4 to 16 but now settling on 6 as my optimal number.
15202 hands so far bb/100 -5.24 Currently $-15.96 down Highest +$6.21 lowest -$22
The questions :)

How many hands before you really have a good idea whether you are losing / break even or winning.

When people talk about experiencing a downswing of 20 buy-ins do they mean they are down over 20 buy-ins or that they are 20 x the buy-in down!

What is the largest downswing that is reasonable and still recover to be a winning player

Finally the most important question to me. I am wondering if my biggest mistake is playing for too long when I am losing and not long enough when the going is good!!!

Any constructive comments would be much appreciated

Thanks

Mike
 
ConDeck

ConDeck

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 14, 2015
Total posts
973
Chips
0
How many hands before you really have a good idea whether you are losing / break even or winning.

Tbh, you can tend to estimate between 10 and 20K hands, but it would be around 100K before you can really say that it is statistically significant to any degree.


When people talk about experiencing a downswing of 20 buy-ins do they mean they are down over 20 buy-ins or that they are 20 x the buy-in down!

Not quite sure what you mean here, to me that is roughly the same thing. They mean they have lost 20 BI for that level without any significant upswing. For example if plotted on a graph it would be gradually decreasing by 20BI before showing any signifcant sign of improval.

What is the largest downswing that is reasonable and still recover to be a winning player

For me personally I would stop a session as soon as I realise I am down by more than 5BI (roughly) at a given moment as it is at this point I start to display signs of tilt. This could easily happen a couple of times in a row, my biggest is probably a 10-12BI downswing to date.

Finally the most important question to me. I am wondering if my biggest mistake is playing for too long when I am losing and not long enough when the going is good!!!

Sounds like youve provided a solution already. This is very common. Stop chasing losses when you are not playing optimally. If, for example, you averaged 1K hands an hour with a 5bb/100 hand WR, your hourly is roughly 50bb per hour. If you are stuck 4-5 BI as a result of poor play and choose to push on for an extra 2 hours chasing your losses, then even if you were playing your best you are doing this to make an average of 100bb back. At a time when you are playing poorly and/or tilted you are just going to continue to lose money generally. When you are playing well you should definitely continue, if possible, until a point where you feel you are starting to play sub-optimal.

Any constructive comments would be much appreciated

Thanks

Mike

Hope the above was of some use.
 
T

TopFuel

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Total posts
29
Awards
1
Chips
0
Thanks ConDec
Appreciate the feedback.
I didnt really make my downswing question very clear. What I meant by that was.
At what point in terms of downswing numbers would you need to accept that you are not a winning player. In other words can and do winninng players swing down say 40 buy-ins and then claw it back etc. I was thinking not about one session but overall.

One thing I have never been able to get my head around is how cash game players actually make money given these up and down swings appear more frequently than a tarts knickers go up and down :)
 
Dorugremon

Dorugremon

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 23, 2013
Total posts
456
Awards
1
Chips
19
Hi

Been playing 12+ years losing player overall. Mainly played MTTs but now spending more time playing cash at micro levels online.

Yes, fish frequently play for that long and even longer and never learn a damned thing.

I have a Poker coach but he doesn't coach cash and is wise enough to admit that.
Good for you that you are trying to improve. Perhaps it's time to consider a different coach?

Full ring 1/2 cent NLHE multi tabling from 4 to 16 but now settling on 6 as my optimal number.
15202 hands so far bb/100 -5.24 Currently $-15.96 down Highest +$6.21 lowest -$22
The questions :)
Cut out the multi-tabling. Stick with one game at a time since that's the only way you can pay full attention while learning. Leave the multi-table play until you show enough improvement to beat one game consistently.

After you believe you can beat one game, then try two. Don't go rushing into a six table multi until you know you can give each game the attention it requires. Realize that you aren't gonna play every table with your A game, it's not possible. Do this only when you are sure you stand a better chance of making more playing more than one table at a time than you'd make playing one.

How many hands before you really have a good idea whether you are losing / break even or winning.
10K should be enough to get a good idea. More would be more definitive. Of course, none of that matters if you're mixing in different games/stakes in your overall play.

When people talk about experiencing a downswing of 20 buy-ins do they mean they are down over 20 buy-ins or that they are 20 x the buy-in down!
20X the buy-in. It's not uncommon to lose a buy -- or a good piece of a buy -- and reload, maybe reload more than once. Sometimes I lose a BI, and quit the game because it's not worth the reload: all the big stacks have left, and there's nothing but shorties there, or all the chips went into Mr. Nitty's stack and I know I'll need a stick of dynamite to jar a few loose, or something like that. Other games filled with deep stack fish, weak/passives who've been getting smacked with the deck, aggro-tards who've been running like God, these games are worth a reload, maybe two or three.

I suppose it's possible to lose 20X BI($200 at 0.05/0.1; $4,000 at 1/2, &c) but I haven't managed to do that. Not sayin' it can't happen, but so far it hasn't. (Although I've gotten taken for $tens of thousands while card counting at blackjack, which is why I stay far away from Blackjack tables. You wanna talk about some wicked variance...)

What is the largest downswing that is reasonable and still recover to be a winning player
12X BI over a year and a half of runbad. Yes, it's reasonable to recover if you really are a good player and not a fish who's fooling himself. The way I look at it is to let that wins and losses take care of themselves. If I made all the right decisions, and didn't get tilted, or make some idiotic play, then it was a good session. If I came out ahead, then that's a cherry on top.

Finally the most important question to me. I am wondering if my biggest mistake is playing for too long when I am losing and not long enough when the going is good!!!
A common mistake, chasing losses beyond what's reasonable.
 
D

datrolld20

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 3, 2015
Total posts
10
Chips
0
Good advice above.

Take what I say with a grain of salt. I always played intuitively, and have been about break-even.

Just recently, I decided to improve my game and follow good advice to a T. No matter how much I thought I knew about poker, I leave it behind and only play a semi-flexible list of TAG hands, dependent on position. No matter how bored I am, I fold anything not on the list (within reason). I'm now winning slowly, rather than losing slowly.

Once I can recall my ranges without ever looking, I will add more plays to the playbook. Then add more tables, etc.

The point I'm trying to make is that, if what you've been doing doesn't work, reset! Don't make little adjustments to your current game plan. Trash it! Build up from the ground. Look up a solid guide to beating the micros and treat it like scripture.

Hopefully this helps. Keep us posted!
 
T

TopFuel

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Total posts
29
Awards
1
Chips
0
Thanks Dorugremon for the parts of your feedback that were constructive. Not sure of the merit or purpose of calling me a fish but then some people do have to put others down in order to feel ok about themselves.
My poker coach is a highly respected member of Jonathan Little's Float the Turn stable and is also backed by Fedor Holz so think before you comment there too. In fact may be think full stop. :)
 
Last edited:
T

TopFuel

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Total posts
29
Awards
1
Chips
0
Thanks Datrolld20 some great pointers there
 
Top