Hand Analysis

MemphisGrind · Sep 10, 2018

1-3 NLTH Live at Casino. My local Casino, I play here 3-4 days a week. I usually play 8 hr sessions from midnight till 8:00 a.m. Hero is in the game for $600... My current stack was $932 for this hand. Effective stack for this hand is $550. Villain (effective stack) is someone I have played with for years. He is a very aggressive player and likes to apply max pressure especially in the big pots.

Hero (310bb) K spades K diamonds in the small blind

Villain (183bb) on the Button. I will reveal hand after some feedback to get a true response out of everyone.

2 limps from unknown players... then an open on the button from villain to $25 (standard open for him) Hero raises to $100 out of the small blind. The unknown players fold, and the Button flats.

Flop- Pot $208 (69bb) J clubs 2 hearts 4 clubs

Hero- $832 (277bb) Checks

Villain- $450 (150bb effective) Bets $150

Hero- $832 (277bb) Calls $150

Turn- Pot $508 (169bb) 8 spades
Board Reads (J clubs 2 hearts 4 clubs 8 spades)

Hero- $682 (227bb) Checks

Villain- $300 (100bb) All in

Hero- Calls

River- 8 hearts

So the thoughts going through my head at the time based on what I know about villain is he can have a few club draws. He would have opened and defended against my 3 bet with AK clubs, AQ clubs AJ clubs. All relevant because I do not have the K clubs blocker. Other hands I'm ahead of in his range is QQ and AJ any suit. Relevant hands that beat me are Pocket JJ and Pocket AA He doesn't have any two pairs unless he's at the absolute bottom of his range trying to balance against my 3bet with J8 somehow.. I felt like he was more than likely drawing or TPTK or over pair. Do you play this hand any differently? Do you call Jam on the turn?

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

Anyone.....??

Spewster · Sep 11, 2018

Tbh, I don't know much of the history between you and villain. Is he all in bluffing a lot? If not, I probably would have raised his bet on the turn. If he jams, chances are you are up against a set and get away from this hand.

The only thing that makes sense to me is a bluff or JJ or 88, especially since he flats from the button against your raise in the SB. I always pay attention, when someone raises from there since your range needs to be really strong in order to mitigate the position disadvantage.

So he probably knows this, too, so he is not very likely to flat with trash, right?

I really hate slowplaying overpairs especially on semidry boards. This is just me though.

playinggameswithu · Sep 11, 2018

So many BB's in the pot on the flop bet Id check raise jam the flop after he bets it definitely in an MTT. Though this is cash and we are trying to get max value every time every day. So after he bets the turn i think he has TPTK or a set. Either way the hand plays its self out and you lose. If he has two pair it is -EV a massive amount of the time so be it. If you check raise jam the turn does he fold TPTK...i donk think so. You played the hand correct except that TPTK and overpairs go way down in value when this deep...they go down in value to 88 and less.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

Spewster said:
Tbh, I don't know much of the history between you and villain. Is he all in bluffing a lot? If not, I probably would have raised his bet on the turn. If he jams, chances are you are up against a set and get away from this hand.

The only thing that makes sense to me is a bluff or JJ or 88, especially since he flats from the button against your raise in the SB. I always pay attention, when someone raises from there since your range needs to be really strong in order to mitigate the position disadvantage.

So he probably knows this, too, so he is not very likely to flat with trash, right?

I really hate slowplaying overpairs especially on semidry boards. This is just me though.

Yes, in big pots he jams with mediocre at best holdings often. He has had great success getting the best hand at the time to fold to him with pure aggression. He usually shows his strong hands only after a win to try and build an image that he always has it. I have caught him in this move enough to make this one particular time still profitable, but I'm trying to see other lines. Raising his bet on the turn popped into my head, but I feel like I polarize my range and lose value against flush draws and TPTK plus I know he's spewy... So he ended up having AA which really baffled me.. because he flats my 3 bet on the button, but I guess it makes sense.. because he knows I'll generally take that out of his range. wish I would have had JJ and stacked him though lol

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
So many BB's in the pot on the flop bet Id check raise jam the flop after he bets it definitely in an MTT. Though this is cash and we are trying to get max value every time every day. So after he bets the turn i think he has TPTK or a set. Either way the hand plays its self out and you lose. If he has two pair it is -EV a massive amount of the time so be it. If you check raise jam the turn does he fold TPTK...i donk think so. You played the hand correct except that TPTK and overpairs go way down in value when this deep...they go down in value to 88 and less.

WAY too deep to check raise jam the flop IMO. Would love to hear a deeper analysis of why you feel this would be a good move? What two pair hand do you feel he could have after calling my 3 bet that I bet from the small blind? He ended up having AA I'm guessing he threw this in for balance to throw me off... it worked.

lsbenn · Sep 11, 2018

I feel a continuation bet on the flop may have helped a little with pot control in this hand and given you more info on your opponents holdings possibly a fold from him.
You raised preflop, he just called and then you showed weakness by checking the flop. Villain probably put you on AK and you missed the flop. Villain bets 2/3 pot with his pkt 88 and you just call (I would have check-raised). Turn an 8 and you check again, but Villain hit the turn. He knows now you have no clue he is holding 88's and then the river 8. Villain has runner runner quads.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

lsbenn said:
I feel a continuation bet on the flop may have helped a little with pot control in this hand and given you more info on your opponents holdings possibly a fold from him.
You raised preflop, he just called and then you showed weakness by checking the flop. Villain probably put you on AK and you missed the flop. Villain bets 2/3 pot with his pkt 88 and you just call (I would have check-raised). Turn an 8 and you check again, but Villain hit the turn. He knows now you have no clue he is holding 88's and then the river 8. Villain has runner runner quads.

Not disagreeing with anything you are saying just looking for deeper analysis because I see it differently. I'm OOP so me leading him IMO is not a smart move. I'm checking all of my range here, so there is no "weakness" being shown. Just curious why you are putting villain on exactly 88? As outlined in my OP there is a wide range of hands in villains range. I hear ya on check raising flop, and agree there can be some merit in this. What amount would you have check raised too? I was using pot control since we were both so deep. He wasn't holding 88 he had AA. Witch as I've explained to others was balanced and tricky because he knows I don't have that in his range as often as flush draws and TPTK. Again I'm not disagreeing with you I just want to hear a deeper analysis since I see it a little differently.

playinggameswithu · Sep 11, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
WAY too deep to check raise jam the flop IMO. Would love to hear a deeper analysis of why you feel this would be a good move? What two pair hand do you feel he could have after calling my 3 bet that I bet from the small blind? He ended up having AA I'm guessing he threw this in for balance to throw me off... it worked.

I always prefer to win a significant pot that is ratio to my stack from a fold in a tournament than from a showdown or a dreaded runout. Even if it means losing out on some value. That being because NLH has objectively close odds, even a runner runner flush is 1 to 19 or 4.5%. You only have one stack in most MTT's. I also said I don't think he has a two pair and if he does he is losing a vast majority of the time if the hand would be played 10x,100x,1000x. no worries if he floped 1 to 49 two pair or turned it,because he loses in long run by a lot.

There are three types of hands in NLH winner,skill or loser hands or a combo of skill/loser skill/winner. NLH literally everyone is guaranteed to lose money guaranteed to pseudo win money.This is AA vs KK it is obviously a loser hand. 1 to 219 to get dealt AA odds of AA vs KK probably like 1 to 499 or worse. It just a loser hand. You were guaranteed to lose money with this hand when it was dealt no matter what. the best thing you could of done is lose a minimal amount which i suspect would still be substantial. I think you should post a skill hands not loser hands or winner hands. Like if I did a hand review and I posted as the other guy with AA vs your KK it would be silly because the hand is a obvious winner hand with you being dealt KK to my AA and the board and playout being what it is.A baby could win money with AA vs KK.

If he 4-bet you it would scream aces. As a back 4-bet. I suspect he had not played a hand in a while and when he looked at AA he did not want to make it obvious by A. suddenly playing a hand,B. playing it aggressively pre-flop, C. back 4 betting.

I respect you as being among a few skilled and serious forum members on CC. Usually your type stick to 2 + 2 but this hand is a hand that when looked at one way two ways three ways is just a loser hand or what is called a "cooler hand". No skill would have saved you given every aspect from table image to bet size to position to hand range read etc. I'm usually playing several MTT at once and browse and comment this forum that does not mean I have guaranteed read thoroughly the original post or comments after I usually just skim if it is too long.

scubed · Sep 11, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
Do you play this hand any differently? Do you call Jam on the turn?

Hi Memphis - Question for you given your history with Villain. If Villain would have 4bet pre-flop would you have laid down the KK? If not, what would your action have been?

One of the things you didn't mention in your behavioral part of the scenario is your table image from the perspective of Villain. That said, sometimes hands just play themselves and I think this one did. I don't see any path to getting away from the over pair given the history you have with Villain. Implicit bias is a difficult thing to overcome.

I ran this scenario through a simulator to see what GTO math could teach us. FYI - you didn't document Villain's suits so I used AdAs. Here are the results:

Pre-flop:

Villain's pre-flop 2bet was correct, though the simulator didn't like the bet sizing. The recommended sizing was a pot-sized bet.
Hero's 3bet raise pre-flop raise (-EV of 0.25 big blinds) was considered to be incorrect by the simulator. The simulator would have preferred the less aggressive action in calling (+EV of 0.08 big blinds)
Villains flat was correct. The simulator recommends flat calling 63% of the time and 4betting a half-pot bet size 37% of the time.

Flop:

Hero's check is correct. The simulator recommends checking 38% of the time and a pot sized bet 62% of the time. Each of these actions are a +EV of 68.56 big blinds.
Villain's bet was also correct; however the sizing was large. The optimal sizing would have been 25% of the pot. The balanced strategy is 36% checking and 64% betting.
Hero's flat was considered wrong. The recommended strategy is all-in 100% of the time.

Turn:

Hero's check was wrong, simulator recommends a bet sizing of 25% of the pot.
Villain's all in and Hero's subsequent call both are considered to be the correct move.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
I always prefer to win a significant pot that is ratio to my stack from a fold in a tournament than from a showdown or a dreaded runout. Even if it means losing out on some value. That being because NLH has objectively close odds, even a runner runner flush is 1 to 19 or 4.5%. You only have one stack in most MTT's. I also said I don't think he has a two pair and if he does he is losing a vast majority of the time if the hand would be played 10x,100x,1000x. no worries if he floped 1 to 49 two pair or turned it,because he loses in long run by a lot.

There are three types of hands in NLH winner,skill or loser hands or a combo of skill/loser skill/winner. NLH literally everyone is guaranteed to lose money guaranteed to pseudo win money.This is AA vs KK it is obviously a loser hand. 1 to 219 to get dealt AA odds of AA vs KK probably like 1 to 499 or worse. It just a loser hand. You were guaranteed to lose money with this hand when it was dealt no matter what. the best thing you could of done is lose a minimal amount which i suspect would still be substantial. I think you should post a skill hands not loser hands or winner hands. Like if I did a hand review and I posted as the other guy with AA vs your KK it would be silly because the hand is a obvious winner hand with you being dealt KK to my AA and the board and playout being what it is.A baby could win money with AA vs KK.

If he 4-bet you it would scream aces. As a back 4-bet. I suspect he had not played a hand in a while and when he looked at AA he did not want to make it obvious by A. suddenly playing a hand,B. playing it aggressively pre-flop, C. back 4 betting.

I respect you as being among a few skilled and serious forum members on CC. Usually your type stick to 2 + 2 but this hand is a hand that when looked at one way two ways three ways is just a loser hand or what is called a "cooler hand". No skill would have saved you given every aspect from table image to bet size to position to hand range read etc. I'm usually playing several MTT at once and browse and comment this forum that does not mean I have guaranteed read thoroughly the original post or comments after I usually just skim if it is too long.

I respect your response. I am not a member of 2+2. It is a fine group but have enjoyed the CardsChat community. I agree that it was a cooler, however it was a hand that I was hoping to get some insight on the line that I took based on the live reads. If this was played in a tournament I would have played it MUCH differently. Especially dependent upon what part of the tournament, distance from ITM and other factors that I wasn't dealing with in this cash game. I don't get to have too many in depth theory conversations because like you said there are only a few members on CardsChat at this level. Again thanks for the response, and maybe you can look at the thread I started entitled "Hendon Mob" and help it move in the right direction lol Interested in having some convo's about the side of the game that most players don't see.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

scubed said:
Hi Memphis - Question for you given your history with Villain. If Villain would have 4bet pre-flop would you have laid down the KK? If not, what would your action have been?

One of the things you didn't mention in your behavioral part of the scenario is your table image from the perspective of Villain. That said, sometimes hands just play themselves and I think this one did. I don't see any path to getting away from the over pair given the history you have with Villain. Implicit bias is a difficult thing to overcome.

I ran this scenario through a simulator to see what GTO math could teach us. FYI - you didn't document Villain's suits so I used AdAs. Here are the results:

Pre-flop:

Villain's pre-flop 2bet was correct, though the simulator didn't like the bet sizing. The recommended sizing was a pot-sized bet.

Hero's 3bet raise pre-flop raise (-EV of 0.25 big blinds) was considered to be incorrect by the simulator. The simulator would have preferred the less aggressive action in calling (+EV of 0.08 big blinds)

Villains flat was correct. The simulator recommends flat calling 63% of the time and 4betting a half-pot bet size 37% of the time.

Flop:

Hero's check is correct. The simulator recommends checking 38% of the time and a pot sized bet 62% of the time. Each of these actions are a +EV of 68.56 big blinds.

Villain's bet was also correct; however the sizing was large. The optimal sizing would have been 25% of the pot. The balanced strategy is 36% checking and 64% betting.

Hero's flat was considered wrong. The recommended strategy is all-in 100% of the time.

Turn:

Hero's check was wrong, simulator recommends a bet sizing of 25% of the pot.

Villain's all in and Hero's subsequent call both are considered to be the correct move.

Yes, if villain 4 bets, I fold. I don't make a habbit of it, it would have been the 3rd time I have folded KK pre-flop in cash and would have had no problems doing it. Based on my knowledge of his play he wants pots to be deep and make moves to win before showdown.

That's interesting that the simulator suggests jamming 100% of the time on the flop at the the stack depth that we had. The effective stack on the flop was 150bb I just can't see how that is a jam 100% of the time. I respect the 1/4 pot on the turn. I agree that it's +EV however, I leaned toward my knowledge of villain and I knew he would be super aggro to take the pot down.

I do apologize I didn't include my table image. I was perceived by the table as a rock. Villain would have perceived me as TAG he knows me to be a solid Reg.

blueskies · Sep 11, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
Yes, if villain 4 bets, I fold. I don't make a habbit of it, it would have been the 3rd time I have folded KK pre-flop in cash and would have had no problems doing it. Based on my knowledge of his play he wants pots to be deep and make moves to win before showdown.

That's interesting that the simulator suggests jamming 100% of the time on the flop at the the stack depth that we had. The effective stack on the flop was 150bb I just can't see how that is a jam 100% of the time. I respect the 1/4 pot on the turn. I agree that it's +EV however, I leaned toward my knowledge of villain and I knew he would be super aggro to take the pot down.

I do apologize I didn't include my table image. I was perceived by the table as a rock. Villain would have perceived me as TAG he knows me to be a solid Reg.

If villain 4 bets there, I am shoving it all, especially OOP. I am never folding in cash.

playinggameswithu · Sep 11, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
I respect your response. I am not a member of 2+2. It is a fine group but have enjoyed the CardsChat community. I agree that it was a cooler, however it was a hand that I was hoping to get some insight on the line that I took based on the live reads. If this was played in a tournament I would have played it MUCH differently. Especially dependent upon what part of the tournament, distance from ITM and other factors that I wasn't dealing with in this cash game. I don't get to have too many in depth theory conversations because like you said there are only a few members on CardsChat at this level. Again thanks for the response, and maybe you can look at the thread I started entitled "Hendon Mob" and help it move in the right direction lol Interested in having some convo's about the side of the game that most players don't see.

Well there are a lot of variables in NLH but after a certain point the game gets too complex and players are "over-thinking it" there is a certain threshold of complexity. I am just saying this a obvious cooler hand given your opponents actions. You did nothing wrong with this exact specific hand.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

blueskies said:
If villain 4 bets there, I am shoving it all, especially OOP. I am never folding in cash.

I respect your response, but politely disagree.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
Well there are a lot of variables in NLH but after a certain point the game gets too complex and players are "over-thinking it" there is a certain threshold of complexity. I am just saying this a obvious cooler hand given your opponents actions. You did nothing wrong with this exact specific hand.

I agree I get caught leveling a lot. I try hard to put accurate ranges on my opponents, but it's hard sometimes.

scubed · Sep 11, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
Yes, if villain 4 bets, I fold.

I'm thinking that this would have been the only path to get away from this hand. The Villain played well to keep you in.

MemphisGrind said:
That's interesting that the simulator suggests jamming 100% of the time on the flop at the the stack depth that we had. The effective stack on the flop was 150bb I just can't see how that is a jam 100% of the time.

My guess is that part of this had to do with Villain's big bet (larger than recommended) which made the best response to Villain's action to be all-in.

MemphisGrind said:
I do apologize I didn't include my table image. I was perceived by the table as a rock. Villain would have perceived me as TAG he knows me to be a solid Reg.

Again, this just points to the fact that Villain played well on this hand. He likely put you on a very strong range with the 3bet pre-flop OOP and was licking his chops knowing he'd figure out a way to get all his chips in the middle.

MemphisGrind · Sep 11, 2018

scubed said:
I'm thinking that this would have been the only path to get away from this hand. The Villain played well to keep you in.

My guess is that part of this had to do with Villain's big bet (larger than recommended) which made the best response to Villain's action to be all-in.
Again, this just points to the fact that Villain played well on this hand. He likely put you on a very strong range with the 3bet pre-flop OOP and was licking his chops knowing he'd figure out a way to get all his chips in the middle.

I agree. He is a good player. Most people are "afraid" of him I like getting in the ring and battling with him. We are generally on the same 1/3 (300NL) 2/5 (1000NL) and 5/10 tables (2000NL) I always wonder is it because we are both really good at table selection or is he picking the table because of me haha

MemphisGrind · Sep 24, 2018

marat sharipov said:
fish

? Care to explain

playinggameswithu · Sep 24, 2018

marat sharipov said:
fish

Soon to be banned...

MemphisGrind · Sep 24, 2018

playinggameswithu said:
Soon to be banned...

Who? I guess you’re talking about the person that posted “fish”

swannymojo · Sep 25, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
1-3 NLTH Live at Casino. My local Casino, I play here 3-4 days a week. I usually play 8 hr sessions from midnight till 8:00 a.m. Hero is in the game for $600... My current stack was $932 for this hand. Effective stack for this hand is $550. Villain (effective stack) is someone I have played with for years. He is a very aggressive player and likes to apply max pressure especially in the big pots.

Hero (310bb) K spades K diamonds in the small blind

Villain (183bb) on the Button. I will reveal hand after some feedback to get a true response out of everyone.

2 limps from unknown players... then an open on the button from villain to $25 (standard open for him) Hero raises to $100 out of the small blind. The unknown players fold, and the Button flats.

Flop- Pot $208 (69bb) J clubs 2 hearts 4 clubs

Hero- $832 (277bb) Checks

Villain- $450 (150bb effective) Bets $150

Hero- $832 (277bb) Calls $150

Turn- Pot $508 (169bb) 8 spades
Board Reads (J clubs 2 hearts 4 clubs 8 spades)

Hero- $682 (227bb) Checks

Villain- $300 (100bb) All in

Hero- Calls

River- 8 hearts

So the thoughts going through my head at the time based on what I know about villain is he can have a few club draws. He would have opened and defended against my 3 bet with AK clubs, AQ clubs AJ clubs. All relevant because I do not have the K clubs blocker. Other hands I'm ahead of in his range is QQ and AJ any suit. Relevant hands that beat me are Pocket JJ and Pocket AA He doesn't have any two pairs unless he's at the absolute bottom of his range trying to balance against my 3bet with J8 somehow.. I felt like he was more than likely drawing or TPTK or over pair. Do you play this hand any differently? Do you call Jam on the turn?

I intentionally havent' read past this initial post so i can give my thoughts on the hand without my thoughts being biased by the final result of the hand...

I think your probably a better player than me given the way you've already analyzed the hand in the post but here are my initial 2 cents on the hand..

I'm curious if AJ suited is really going to call you on the button for such an aggressive raise pre-flop. I don't know villain here though. I'm assuming if y'all have played together quite a bit he probably is going to play a smarter game against you knowing your a thinking player...but every casino has their wild regs....

You put yourself into a trickier spot check calling the flop and then checking the turn. Your hand looks like 10s, 9s, aks, or aqs. It looks like a hand that either missed, is beat by a jack, or is drawing [it could look like you've got aj here too]. Against the range of hands you put the aggressive villian on, and the way you have played the hand...you are inviting him to shove on you...thats neither good nor bad but certainly higher variance since you put yourself in a spot where its so much harder to fold given how weak your hand looks after playing OOP so passively on a wet board.

For your hand, thats a great flop. The only hands you are beat by are jj and aa.

I put him on either jj, qq, aa or some sort of draw.

I think your up against a draw or a kind of a hand like aj enough here for you to be good to call the turn bet, however given the way you played it you didn't give yourself a way to get off the hand. Meaning, if has JJ or AA here he will usually succeed in getting you all in if you play kk like that every time OOP.

It is a super interesting spot though. I'm curious what you could do to not be put in such a tricky spot when facing an all in jam on the turn. But this is also one of those hands where KK and a flush draw could have both played correctly and given the game of poker...one player has to lose.

Maybe if he's tilted he could have a hand like A5 suited where he's chasing the flush/gutter.

swannymojo · Sep 25, 2018

Spewster said:
Tbh, I don't know much of the history between you and villain. Is he all in bluffing a lot? If not, I probably would have raised his bet on the turn. If he jams, chances are you are up against a set and get away from this hand.

The only thing that makes sense to me is a bluff or JJ or 88, especially since he flats from the button against your raise in the SB. I always pay attention, when someone raises from there since your range needs to be really strong in order to mitigate the position disadvantage.

So he probably knows this, too, so he is not very likely to flat with trash, right?

I really hate slowplaying overpairs especially on semidry boards. This is just me though.

Its just SUCH an awkward spot on the turn. But he jammed on the turn i believe(?)

You could mayyyyybe make a point to bet out on the turn and fold to a shove but at this point the spr here is so awkward that if the hero is up against a villian who jams on wet boards when chasing draws....can you bet fold the turn? I don't think so...

I think you've gotta bet 60 percent pot on the flop and see what happens.

My favorite poker pro is a man named bart hansen who has a great podcast on playing each street with a gameplan for following streets.

swannymojo · Sep 25, 2018

MemphisGrind said:
Yes, in big pots he jams with mediocre at best holdings often.

In this case...i like that you played trappy, here. Best way to earn the maximum...as long as you think he'd play that way against you...

Whats your percieved range here OOP betting 100 into the pot pre?

MemphisGrind · Sep 25, 2018

swannymojo said:
In this case...i like that you played trappy, here. Best way to earn the maximum...as long as you think he'd play that way against you...

Whats your percieved range here OOP betting 100 into the pot pre?

Honestly, my perceived range is the top 2% of my range. 95% AA/KK/QQ/JJ 5% ATC because of balance. from this exact spot against this particular person he knows more likely than not I'm gonna have it, however I am capable of making a move with any two cards and I have done it and showed to him before.

Hand Analysis

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

Spewster

Enthusiast

playinggameswithu

Legend

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

lsbenn

Rock Star

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

playinggameswithu

Legend

scubed

Visionary

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

blueskies

Legend

playinggameswithu

Legend

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

scubed

Visionary

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

playinggameswithu

Legend

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

swannymojo

Rock Star

swannymojo

Rock Star

swannymojo

Rock Star

MemphisGrind

Think Bink

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site