Originally Posted by vinylspiros
Its not a determining sample as someone playing zoom can get that volume in like 5 hours by 4 tabling.
10K hand breakeven stretches or downswings are very common indeed. So dont worry about it. After you get in like 70K hands , you will know what direction your moving in for sure.
It really takes a lot of time to can have a good idea where we stand, some mention you need 250k hands to be any kind of acurate, 100k can give a rough idea but still not set in stone, 70k could at least tell your borders, like if you are winning at 5bb after 70k hands you could be a 2bb player or a 7bb player but at least you know are a winner, but if take for example someone with just 2-3bb you canīt know for sure if he is running bad and is really a crusher or is actually a BE player. But also to the time you get those amounts of hands your game actually could change and now your bb is not result of your actual play but from past.
I put myself like a example, when move from 2nl to 5nl this year, the first 20k hands i was BE, then last 30k hands i am winning at 4-5bb/100, but do i run normal on the BE strecth? or do i run hot on last stretch?, i canīt say for sure because after 50k hands iīm still 7bi under expected value
but i donīt feel that iīm crushing the level, still feel is so hard to actually win.
So the only thing we can do is keep playing, move up if have the BR and go on.
There is a variance simulator here http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
You can run different scenarios with different winrates and let you see what to expect in a determined amount of hands, is really eye opener. Even a 5bb winner could have a breakeven stretch or a downswing. is just part of this retarded game we decide to play.