Good or bad laydown?

A lot of fish tend to do this. Bet very little throughout the hand then fire near pot size on the river when they have/ think they have the winning hand. Stupid tactic as they give people great odds to call throughout the hand and improve. But people call them a decent amount of the time on the river with marginal hands because they see the river bet as a bluff.

What do you think?

full tilt poker Game #34003772749: Table Cruz (6 max) - NL Hold'em - $0.02/$0.05 - 20:30:13 ET - 2014/03/10
Seat 1: Riphraph94 ($3.33)
Seat 2: bertyboyo ($5.35)
Seat 3: Eilrac ($5.50)
Seat 4: 4ErNuShKa ($3.62)
Seat 5: sixavr ($7.42)
Seat 6: akaRobbo ($11.10)
sixavr posts the small blind of $0.02
akaRobbo posts the big blind of $0.05
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to akaRobbo [6h 7d]
Riphraph94 raises to $0.10
bertyboyo calls $0.10
Eilrac folds
4ErNuShKa folds
sixavr calls $0.08
akaRobbo calls $0.05
*** FLOP *** [5d 3c 8c] (Total Pot: $0.40, 4 Players)
sixavr checks
akaRobbo checks
Riphraph94 bets $0.20
bertyboyo has 15 seconds left to act
bertyboyo calls $0.20
sixavr folds
akaRobbo calls $0.20
*** TURN *** [5d 3c 8c] [9c] (Total Pot: $1, 3 Players)
akaRobbo checks
Riphraph94 bets $0.30
bertyboyo folds
akaRobbo calls $0.30
*** RIVER *** [5d 3c 8c 9c] [9s] (Total Pot: $1.60, 2 Players)
akaRobbo checks
Riphraph94 bets $1.45
akaRobbo has 15 seconds left to act
akaRobbo folds
Uncalled bet of $1.45 returned to Riphraph94
Riphraph94 mucks
Riphraph94 wins the pot ($1.52)

I guess I could have raised him on the turn to see where I was at but I just wanted to see what he did on the river, and as I thought he fired pot size, so just went with my read.

With possible full house and flush on the board it was probably a good lay down.

If I had to guess he probably had a set turned full house but flush is also possible.

The more I think about this the more it looks like he had 54 and missed his straight so he bluffed the river.

Or he just played a flopped set horribly slow.

IPlay said:

The more I think about this the more it looks like he had 54 and missed his straight so he bluffed the river.

Click to expand...

No straight draw with 54

fold preflop

Ubercroz said:

fold preflop

Click to expand...

Yep.

Well, you don't have to fold preflop. You are getting seven to one for your direct odds and implied odds suggest that you can stack someone off if you hit a straight or two pair considering that in cash games stacks are so deep compared to tournaments. And even then, with the hand you either connect huge or you don't connect type of hand. You either get a draw or a huge hand or you just totally miss it.

It seems that the person has bet with a gutshot (most likely 97 or 96) and hit trips on the river. I think he assumes that if he got raised on the turn, that he might think his hand was not good with flush and straight draws on the board. Maybe the person could have had 98 or a weirdly played flush, but if they do then you're a bit unlucky. So I would call here.

Personally with a flop like that I love to check raise.... If we get raised again we can consider shoving which is last resort but hopefully we can finish the hand with a check raise.

After we have gotten to the turn the base case scenario has arrived and we ship it.

Ubercroz said:

fold preflop

Click to expand...

too tight! if you don't balance your range you'll never get called with your prems. And we can call with great playable multi hands like this.

I even 3 bet in this spot.

Aces2w1n said:

too tight! if you don't balance your range you'll never get called with your prems. And we can call with great playable multi hands like this.

I even 3 bet in this spot.

Click to expand...

Lol! 5nl! Balance your range! Lol! Good one!

Ubercroz said:

fold preflop

Click to expand...

+1

It's cheap to call with nice pot odds at that point, but I'll be OOP with a hand that will usually be marginal when I hit the flop. Even considering implied odds, it's a marginally profitable situation at best so the most EV I can be giving up by folding is a few cents. And it could be a -EV spot. At this level, I prefer to KISS and fold pre-.

Aces2w1n said:

too tight! if you don't balance your range you'll never get called with your prems. And we can call with great playable multi hands like this.

I even 3 bet in this spot.

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The reason you balance your range is so that people will pay off your better holdings, right? Well if people always pay off your better holdings why do you need to balance your range? You don't.

If people pay off your better holdings regularly then you don't need to balance your range.

People at 5nl pay off your better holdings regularly, therefore you do not need to balance your range.

Play tight and victory will be yours.

While there is some value in the implied odds you will not be good very often and you will likely find yourself in a difficult spot on the turn, or river. Potentially even the flop!

If you 3bet and get a bunch of callers then you will find yourself with top or mid pair or a good draw and you are paying into a big pot that you can't really fold even though you may be a loser. you can very easily lose a lot of money on this hand since you are out of position and are not likely to be best against a large group of opponents.

At the micro's (and even at higher stakes) keeping your decisions simple is critical. If you position yourself so that you can play your hand in a way your are comfortable and where your choices are normally easy, then you will be able to spend mental energy on noticing what is wrong in the situation or on the unusual hard decision based off a better understanding of where you are.

Even balancing your range - this is not really the position or the spot to do it in. Your in the BB, give up your blind you don't need to defend it as much as you think you do.

totally agree with what Ubercroz has posted above. If you were playing at higher stakes and were intending to balance your range , I still wouldn't be doing it with 67o. 67 suited and maybe you can start to argue about 3 bet bluffing at higher stakes especially given the weak action pre but i'd want to know the opponents stats before taking any decisions like that so that i'd know whether they are likely to fold to the bluff. The suited cards gives a lot more potential outs and whilst they typically only add a couple of % of equity preflop , the payback when you hit the flush make them much more valueable than unsuited cards, and hitting a flush draw on the flop allows you to barrel giving better playability postflop.

It looks like the PFR is UTG so his range would tend to be tighter. Give him a typical tags UTG range and your equity is looking bad.
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 68.55% 68.07% 0.48% { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
BB 31.45% 30.96% 0.48% { 7d6h }
interestingly your equity doesn't really increase a lot vs a btn steal range

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.75% 62.61% 1.14% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }
BB 36.25% 35.11% 1.14% { 7d6h }

against the button range , to him your range would be a restealing range so would be a lot stronger than your actual cards and you would gain a fair bit of fold equity. when called you are likely to be behind so the extra playability afforded by being suited becomes important.

Your equity in these examples shows why you need Fold equity to make the 3bet bluff work, so should be used at stakes and against opponents where they are likely to fold to the 3bet. In this hand, 3betting is likely to get called or reraised by the UTG PFR. If UTG calls your 3bet the pot then becomes increasingly attractive for all the other players still in the hand to call and see a flop which is really bad for your equity. If UTG reraises your only option is to then fold which means that your 3bet was spew since it was unlikely to actually win the hand and just bloated the pot in a hand you had very little equity in.

Calling with 76o is fine if you know your opponents well and can outplay them. That's pretty unlikely, so I suggest you fold it preflop for now.

Easy call on the river. I don't have much faith in this "A lot of fish tend to do this." read. You would be right to raise the turn, but not to "see where you're at." Sure, if you get 3bet on the turn, you can reevaluate, but it's still probably a call. The point of the raise is to get calls from weaker hands such as draws, pairs+, etc. If you're raising just to find out if you're beat, you're better off just calling.

fold preflop getting 7-1 with connectors? Where do these nits come from? if your folding here its a leak.
anyhow, I like the fold for 3 reasons
1. flush draw made it
2.board paired
3. river bet was way too big to ever call for a profit - im not even sure if we can call if the bet is smaller, what do we beat besides a bluff? at 5NL there is no need to overthink it - good fold.

if either the board doesn't pair OR the flush doesn't get there then you can call a 1/2 pot size bet or smaller because your hand has value, because both draws made it your fold is fairly standard - you can only beat AK, AQ with the ace of clubs.

I do agree with DaReKa that you must raise the turn for value and protection - it feels like your opponent had a set here

Karozi615 said:

fold preflop getting 7-1 with connectors? Where do these nits come from? if your folding here its a leak.

Click to expand...

This is kind of simplistic. If it's hypothetically possible to play this hand profitably in this situation, then sure, it's a leak. But I suspect that the best case is only marginally profitable. If so, it's only a small leak.

And what if the player isn't good enough to be profitable in this situation? Then is it more important whether folding is a leak, or whether folding is a smaller leak than calling would be?

Well, I can't see myself folding pre-flop in this situation. I'm always inclined to call with connectors with such pot odds.

How about his stats? I think he made a set and fired away on such a draw heavy board. Lucky for him, the board paired. I think it's a good fold. I can't see how you could make a profit at the end of the day calling these boards.

I fail to see the excitement over small connectors like this. I believe it's the Negreanu effect. Folks don't realize that it's only the winners that make it on TV. Somehow it's gained popularity as a profitable hand. After more than a few lost duckets you give that junk up.

Just wait. The cards always come, and when they do, you'll have some ammo.


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