This has nothing to do with "I know I'm beat, but I feel
like I'll river my flush" sort of gut feeling. (That's delusion!)
This is more along the lines of, "This guy rarely bluffs but for some reason I think my 2nd pair is good here" so you make a good call. Basically, your unconscious mind is coming to this conclusion based on factors that you do not remember. Maybe you unconscious mind picked up on signs that he was tilting or bluffing
, and though you can't give the specific instances leading to your gut's conclusion, the conclusion is often correct.
I found it interesting that if people tried to memorize a long string of information, they knew the first part well but actually remembered *less* about the parts at the end than the people who did not try to memorize it did.