Getting out of a big downswing

LD1977

LD1977

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As some of you know, I had a pretty nasty dip a while back and now after almost a full month (it started on 13.12.2013.) I clawed my way out of the hole. This wasn't exactly my first downswing but it is probably the longest (also due to somewhat low volume I put in).

During this time I talked to some people and read some threads on the forum and it appears that many players tend to go into a tailspin when downswing hits them and that often results in ruination or complete wipe out of the bankroll.

So I decided to try and contribute my thoughts on this subject, maybe it helps someone, who knows.

1) Use the downswing as a signal that you need to analyze and possibly reevaluate your strategy.

I always do this and even though most of the time nothing special comes out of it, sometimes there are startling revelations that just blow my mind (what there is :rolleyes:). As it happens this last one was a true hit, as it revealed a leak I had since I started playing a year ago and wasn't aware of it :eek: it was well hidden, what can I say.

2) Sound bankroll management speeds up the recovery.

By this I mean that many people use aggressive BR strategy and when they get hit they either try to remain on the current level (and usually go broke) or have to go down and grind back the losses.

Problem with this is that if you are doing it 2NL <-> 5NL or 10NL <-> 25NL you waste a crapload of time recouping losses (16BI downswing at 25NL level is 40BI at 10NL!).

This causes frustration and additional tilt, especially for people who like to give themselves fixed time goals ("I have to make X money by date Y"). It is much simpler to stay on the level and grind it back on it (after you did the whole analysis and leak identification thing).

3) Patience is key

Even after you do 1) correctly and BRM allows you to stay on the same level, fish are still gonna cooler you, you will occasionally run into sets several times per session and all the usual crap will keep happening. Suck it up :D it took me 9.5k hands to get into the hole and 27k to get out. It is easier to spew than to earn.

This is enough for now, they say 3 points are the maximum people can absorb in one sitting and besides this really is it :)

Brag pic (note 16BI downswing in 9.5k hands, ouch):
 

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stately7

stately7

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Cool post LD1977, especially about trying to think clearly, slowly and logically about strategy/BR and working through the downswing. Out of interest, what was the well hidden leak you were able to identify?
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Lack of proper adjustment to some types of opponents.
 
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Jdawg0913

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Looking at the chart, if I'm Reading it correctly, it seems like you probably get to the river a lot with the best hand. However, your post flop skills might need work because in non showdown hands you seem to take the worst of it. Maybe up your aggression? Semi bluff more, three barrel, Cbet, etc
 
RodneyC86

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Looking at the chart, if I'm Reading it correctly, it seems like you probably get to the river a lot with the best hand. However, your post flop skills might need work because in non showdown hands you seem to take the worst of it. Maybe up your aggression? Semi bluff more, three barrel, Cbet, etc

Actually I think it's when he stopped focussing on making his red line become positive his blue line shoots up. I don't think he need to change anything..yet.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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I didn't exactly focus on it, just was a wee bit too aggro with some hands that didn't justify the faith :D you can see start of recovery after I reduced the spewing.

As for postflop skills, well, that always needs work but I take consolation in the fact I improved pot sizing and control, meaning when I get to showdown usually it is with pot size I want/like.

My EV adjusted win rate since start of recovery is 5 EVbb/100, which is decent enough and yeah I will continue tweaking my game to try and increase it further.

Anyway, I think analysis of the concrete graph is not the point here, just that there was some kind of analysis/adjustment going on behind the scenes and it proved to be useful.
 
hashtag

hashtag

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Nice post.

What did you do at 5000 hands to pull out of tailspin and turn it around? Was it tilt that got you there?

Also, how were you analysing how you play against certain types of players? What factors do you look at?
 
RodneyC86

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I didn't exactly focus on it, just was a wee bit too aggro with some hands that didn't justify the faith :D you can see start of recovery after I reduced the spewing.

As for postflop skills, well, that always needs work but I take consolation in the fact I improved pot sizing and control, meaning when I get to showdown usually it is with pot size I want/like.

My EV adjusted win rate since start of recovery is 5 EVbb/100, which is decent enough and yeah I will continue tweaking my game to try and increase it further.

Anyway, I think analysis of the concrete graph is not the point here, just that there was some kind of analysis/adjustment going on behind the scenes and it proved to be useful.

Hehe so I am somewhat correct then. Like your approach though, no reacting to the graph and let the graph react to you. Honestly if I and probably many others could also ignore the graph, there'll be a lot less angst :p
 
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nidal55

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what makes me focus is the moto 'money saved is money won'.when things happen im analyzing hands without looking at results and im proud eg to loose $150 instead of $400. now at the end of the month this would be $250 more net which is cool. watch vids analyze preflop math use tracker wiser by adding useful stats esp for 3b pots etc. from ur graph its obv u kept grinding and recovered just fine so keep up.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Good post.

Lack of proper adjustment to some types of opponents.

This was a big leak of mine until recently also. It's a really hard strategy adjustment to make on your own because it's never an obvious leak. I couldn't do it until it was hammered into my head by others.

Glad to see you got out of the downswing. I think that's what "separates the men from the boys" in poker. So many decent players fail to evaluate their own games while in a downswing and instead either blow through an entire bankroll or just quit poker. I mean let's face it - most of us got into poker because when we started we were on a heater and won money.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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hashtag - Well part of it was tilt but most of it was simply a combo of bad run of cards and bad play on my part.

In HM2 there is a tab called "vs player" and it shows results vs. individual opponents. I generally usually do the worst against some of the fish since obviously some of them are gonna run godly against me, it is just a matter of statistics.

But it turned out I do relatively badly vs LAG types and the reason was that my game is tailored to fight fish and TAGs (nits are easy once you identify them). It just so happened several new decent LAGs arrived to the scene and owned my ass :D but now I think I much improved the approach against them.

The leak was hidden simply because my stats looked OK and there were not many good LAGs around at lower levels. Those that tried that style were usually just spewers and I classified them as fish and killed them. Few good ones couldn't make a visible dent in my results so it all went unnoticed.

Rodney - Well obviously the graph shows that I sucked ass at showdowns so I had to look into it. Turned out my straight draws just missed an abnormal amount of time - with OESDs you expect to actually by the river hit around 32% of the time so when you hit 20% it sucks a lot, especially if you tend to be aggro with those against people who will not fold, ever, if they have anything.
 
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